Idk. Seasonal effects may be tricky, but that graph showing just two years is certainly not strong evidence of that as the author claims. He makes reference to

Idk. Seasonal effects may be tricky, but that graph showing just two years is certainly not strong evidence of that as the author claims. He makes reference to a prediction of a 100 bps decline, I think by the end of the year which seems kind of silly to me given the numbers appear to swing by more then 1000 bps over individual months. I’d be curious what he’s actually basing the claim on. He has some sort of model. I’d hope it’s not just based on what is shown in the article