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> From the perspective of poverty statistics, Africa will assume particular importance: by far the continent with the worst economic performance over the last s

> From the perspective of poverty statistics, Africa will assume particular importance: by far the continent with the worst economic performance over the last several decades, it is there that the most significant population growth will occur over the next century. The result, pending dramatic change, is a world in which the progress made against poverty over the last forty years will slow, stagnate, or even reverse. It has always struck me as strange that Africa as a continent would grow its population so much without corresponding development.

hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
Would have to search for it but read an article recently that, even in Africa, population growth is slowing faster than expected. It was basically saying that peak global human population would peak earlier than recently thought.
dahfizz 4y ago
This is a well documented phenomenon. Poor people have more kids than rich people.
pphysch 4y ago
Africans tried many times over the past centuries to establish stable sovereign states (a prerequisite to large-scale development), and each time they got brutally crushed by foreign powers. It's not for lack of trying.
Robotbeat 4y ago
This argument, though, is pulled out of thin air. Population growth in Africa is slowing dramatically as it’s urbanizing, and it’s also dramatically developing. Even some of its poorest areas (with fundamental geographic challenges, like being landlocked, on top of a plateau without navigable rivers to the sea and without hood road or rail networks in neighboring countries) are doing pretty well. Rwanda, for instance, has grown a factor of 4 in real per capita gdp (PPP) from 2000 ($616/capita) to 2021 ($2460/capita). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=RW https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locat... Literally 4 times the wealth per person! And the effects are not just due to a small number of people or raw money alone. The infant mortality rate has dropped from 110 per 1000 live births in 2000 to just 30 in 2021 and still falling. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.IMRT.IN?locations=RW&start=2000 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.IMRT.IN?location... …as its birthrate has dropped from 5.9 per woman in 2000 to 3.9 in 2020 (and still falling fairly quickly). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=RW https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locat... There’s no reason to suspect this trend won’t continue as infrastructure is built up and these places further urbanize. In fact, some of the wealth effects are almost mechanical as fertility rates stabilize, because of the improvement in the dependency ratio. Fertility rate is going to fall in Africa and I’ve seen no good argument for why it wouldn’t. Every trend is in that direction and every obvious force as well.
- twelve40 4y ago
  but it is not pulled out of thin air, they list a bunch of case studies in TFA. If you don't like their numbers/stories, here is a recent quote from the World Bank on Nigeria: > This, it said, translates into growth per capita of 0.2 per cent in 2023 and 0.4 per cent in 2024–25, which is insufficient to reduce extreme poverty in the country. https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/business-news/592952-nigerias-economy-to-grow-2-8-in-2023-world-bank.html https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/business-news/592952... that country grows by a Rwanda every couple of years. Sure it will probably slow down the population growth by mid- or end of this century. But the economy is not keeping up for them to get out of poverty.
  - Robotbeat 4y ago
    That’s really a Nigeria problem, tho, not the entire continent. Nigeria has stumbled the last few years, most other African nations have not. The argument is based on cherry-picking arguments like that. Overall, Africa is quite rapidly developing. Not as fast as we would like, but the overall narrative of the article is cherry-picked nonsense not consistent with reality. Subsaharan Africa overall has grown in per capita gdp by about 2x since 2000. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=ZG&start=2000 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locat... …while its birthrate per woman has fallen from 5.7 to 4.7 (and on a steeper decline now than 20 years ago). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=ZG&start=2000 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location... In fact, I’m even more confident that birthrate will fall to near replacement in 50 years than I am about development, but even if just the birthrate drops, the improved dependency ratio will just about automatically increase the per capita gdp. Africa currently has roughly twice the number of dependents-per-worker as east Asia, for instance. (Or did in 2010), and a reducing fertility rate will mechanistically improve that dramatically. That alone is good for like a 50-100% increase in per capita gdp, let alone the compounding effects of a beneficial dependency ratio.

hn_throwaway_99 4y ago

Would have to search for it but read an article recently that, even in Africa, population growth is slowing faster than expected. It was basically saying that peak global human population would peak earlier than recently thought.

dahfizz 4y ago

This is a well documented phenomenon. Poor people have more kids than rich people.

pphysch 4y ago

Africans tried many times over the past centuries to establish stable sovereign states (a prerequisite to large-scale development), and each time they got brutally crushed by foreign powers. It's not for lack of trying.

Robotbeat 4y ago

This argument, though, is pulled out of thin air. Population growth in Africa is slowing dramatically as it’s urbanizing, and it’s also dramatically developing. Even some of its poorest areas (with fundamental geographic challenges, like being landlocked, on top of a plateau without navigable rivers to the sea and without hood road or rail networks in neighboring countries) are doing pretty well. Rwanda, for instance, has grown a factor of 4 in real per capita gdp (PPP) from 2000 ($616/capita) to 2021 ($2460/capita). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=RW https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locat... Literally 4 times the wealth per person! And the effects are not just due to a small number of people or raw money alone. The infant mortality rate has dropped from 110 per 1000 live births in 2000 to just 30 in 2021 and still falling. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.IMRT.IN?locations=RW&start=2000 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.IMRT.IN?location... …as its birthrate has dropped from 5.9 per woman in 2000 to 3.9 in 2020 (and still falling fairly quickly). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=RW https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locat... There’s no reason to suspect this trend won’t continue as infrastructure is built up and these places further urbanize. In fact, some of the wealth effects are almost mechanical as fertility rates stabilize, because of the improvement in the dependency ratio. Fertility rate is going to fall in Africa and I’ve seen no good argument for why it wouldn’t. Every trend is in that direction and every obvious force as well.

twelve40 4y ago
but it is not pulled out of thin air, they list a bunch of case studies in TFA. If you don't like their numbers/stories, here is a recent quote from the World Bank on Nigeria: > This, it said, translates into growth per capita of 0.2 per cent in 2023 and 0.4 per cent in 2024–25, which is insufficient to reduce extreme poverty in the country. https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/business-news/592952-nigerias-economy-to-grow-2-8-in-2023-world-bank.html https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/business-news/592952... that country grows by a Rwanda every couple of years. Sure it will probably slow down the population growth by mid- or end of this century. But the economy is not keeping up for them to get out of poverty.
- Robotbeat 4y ago
  That’s really a Nigeria problem, tho, not the entire continent. Nigeria has stumbled the last few years, most other African nations have not. The argument is based on cherry-picking arguments like that. Overall, Africa is quite rapidly developing. Not as fast as we would like, but the overall narrative of the article is cherry-picked nonsense not consistent with reality. Subsaharan Africa overall has grown in per capita gdp by about 2x since 2000. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=ZG&start=2000 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locat... …while its birthrate per woman has fallen from 5.7 to 4.7 (and on a steeper decline now than 20 years ago). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=ZG&start=2000 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location... In fact, I’m even more confident that birthrate will fall to near replacement in 50 years than I am about development, but even if just the birthrate drops, the improved dependency ratio will just about automatically increase the per capita gdp. Africa currently has roughly twice the number of dependents-per-worker as east Asia, for instance. (Or did in 2010), and a reducing fertility rate will mechanistically improve that dramatically. That alone is good for like a 50-100% increase in per capita gdp, let alone the compounding effects of a beneficial dependency ratio.