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My memory is vague but I seem to recall hearing of NK missiles heading in Japan's direction a number of times in recent years. Is my memory correct? Does NK jus

by rascul 4y ago

My memory is vague but I seem to recall hearing of NK missiles heading in Japan's direction a number of times in recent years. Is my memory correct? Does NK just get free reign to fire missiles towards other countries?

dirtyid 4y ago
NK's rocketry program advancing at rapid rate. Look what where NK is, if they have to do flight tests, they're not going to fly over PRC, RU or SKR due to geopolitics. Sometimes they're sensible and do lofted trajectories into sea of Japan, but every once in a while they need to overfly some land for proper tests, and JP is what's left. Historic grievances a bonus. Extra bonus JP can't test/overfly back without landing in countries above. Geography of missile tests gets interesting, India has to do it over ocean where foreign sigint ships can gather data, US/RU/PRC all have large empty regions to test inland away from prying eyes.
GalenErso 4y ago
> Does NK just get free reign to fire missiles towards other countries? As long as North Korea's regional neighbors and the United States do little more than condemning the launches, yes. We know these launches pose a risk to civilians on the ground, but little can be done to stop them short of bombing the launch sites. And bombing North Korea would be an act of war, and the consequences would be unpredictable. [1] There are rumors that CYBERCOM has been able to stop North Korean missile launches in the past with covert cyberattacks, but whether that's true or not would be classified. [2] If the U.S. wanted to respond in kind, it could launch a missile from a ship in the Sea of Japan. The missile could be programmed to overfly Pyongyang, and crash into the Yellow Sea. Though China would probably deploy watercraft to recover the missile's debris to study its technology, if it doesn't detonate. [1] Note that North Korea did bomb the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong back in 2010 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardment_of_Yeonpyeong?useskin=vector https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardment_of_Yeonpyeong?uses...). Two civilians and two soldiers were killed, and a number of people were wounded, but the shelling did not trigger a conflict. North Korea also sank a South Korean warship the same year, killing 46, and it didn't cause a war (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROKS_Cheonan_sinking?useskin=vector https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROKS_Cheonan_sinking?useskin=v...). [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/04/world/asia/north-korea-missile-program-sabotage.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/04/world/asia/north-korea-mi... https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/world/asia/north-korea-missile-program-sabotage.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/world/asia/north-korea-mi...
- kQq9oHeAz6wLLS 4y ago
  > And bombing North Korea would be an act of war Fun fact: the US is technically still at war with Korea. The Korean war was never actually stopped... But I do agree resuming hostilities would lead to unpredictable and undesirable outcomes.
  - SllX 4y ago
    * North Korea aka the DPRK. And that’s one of those “fun” facts we learn in school that as I grow older I increasingly question the veracity or usefulness of saying it. It’s unclear whether Korea and the DPRK are even at war with each other in any usefully understood manner; just that they view each other as illegitimate sovereigns occupying their territory in an official manner, much like China and the PRC.
  - dahfizz 4y ago
    > But I do agree resuming hostilities would lead to unpredictable and undesirable outcomes. Could you expand on this? Perhaps naively, I would expect the US & allies to be able to bomb all NK military assets and topple the inferior government easily & quickly. It wouldn't be another guerilla ground war, we just want to destroy their military capabilities. I guess there is still the concern that China would back NK, but I can't see what China benefits from that. A war with other superpowers to protect a poor, weak, unpredictable regime?
    - SllX 4y ago
      A buffer State. The PRC doesn’t want the Korean Peninsula used as a land-based route for an invasion of China by Japan, the US or Russia. Even if the DPRK is a problem, it’s also a barrier to entry for invading China and that’s good enough for the PRC to still support it.
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by rascul 4y ago

dirtyid 4y ago

NK's rocketry program advancing at rapid rate. Look what where NK is, if they have to do flight tests, they're not going to fly over PRC, RU or SKR due to geopolitics. Sometimes they're sensible and do lofted trajectories into sea of Japan, but every once in a while they need to overfly some land for proper tests, and JP is what's left. Historic grievances a bonus. Extra bonus JP can't test/overfly back without landing in countries above. Geography of missile tests gets interesting, India has to do it over ocean where foreign sigint ships can gather data, US/RU/PRC all have large empty regions to test inland away from prying eyes.

GalenErso 4y ago

> Does NK just get free reign to fire missiles towards other countries? As long as North Korea's regional neighbors and the United States do little more than condemning the launches, yes. We know these launches pose a risk to civilians on the ground, but little can be done to stop them short of bombing the launch sites. And bombing North Korea would be an act of war, and the consequences would be unpredictable. [1] There are rumors that CYBERCOM has been able to stop North Korean missile launches in the past with covert cyberattacks, but whether that's true or not would be classified. [2] If the U.S. wanted to respond in kind, it could launch a missile from a ship in the Sea of Japan. The missile could be programmed to overfly Pyongyang, and crash into the Yellow Sea. Though China would probably deploy watercraft to recover the missile's debris to study its technology, if it doesn't detonate. [1] Note that North Korea did bomb the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong back in 2010 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardment_of_Yeonpyeong?useskin=vector https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardment_of_Yeonpyeong?uses...). Two civilians and two soldiers were killed, and a number of people were wounded, but the shelling did not trigger a conflict. North Korea also sank a South Korean warship the same year, killing 46, and it didn't cause a war (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROKS_Cheonan_sinking?useskin=vector https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROKS_Cheonan_sinking?useskin=v...). [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/04/world/asia/north-korea-missile-program-sabotage.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/04/world/asia/north-korea-mi... https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/world/asia/north-korea-missile-program-sabotage.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/world/asia/north-korea-mi...

kQq9oHeAz6wLLS 4y ago
> And bombing North Korea would be an act of war Fun fact: the US is technically still at war with Korea. The Korean war was never actually stopped... But I do agree resuming hostilities would lead to unpredictable and undesirable outcomes.
- SllX 4y ago
  * North Korea aka the DPRK. And that’s one of those “fun” facts we learn in school that as I grow older I increasingly question the veracity or usefulness of saying it. It’s unclear whether Korea and the DPRK are even at war with each other in any usefully understood manner; just that they view each other as illegitimate sovereigns occupying their territory in an official manner, much like China and the PRC.
- dahfizz 4y ago
  > But I do agree resuming hostilities would lead to unpredictable and undesirable outcomes. Could you expand on this? Perhaps naively, I would expect the US & allies to be able to bomb all NK military assets and topple the inferior government easily & quickly. It wouldn't be another guerilla ground war, we just want to destroy their military capabilities. I guess there is still the concern that China would back NK, but I can't see what China benefits from that. A war with other superpowers to protect a poor, weak, unpredictable regime?
  - SllX 4y ago
    A buffer State. The PRC doesn’t want the Korean Peninsula used as a land-based route for an invasion of China by Japan, the US or Russia. Even if the DPRK is a problem, it’s also a barrier to entry for invading China and that’s good enough for the PRC to still support it.
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