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I’m not sure who this person is, but I feel they lose a credibility make two bullet points that seasonal effects being a thing is a noteworthy insight, and that

I’m not sure who this person is, but I feel they lose a credibility make two bullet points that seasonal effects being a thing is a noteworthy insight, and that they are difficult to assess. I mean yeah, they’re going to be difficult to assess when you’re only plotting 2-3 years of data.

PheonixPharts 4y ago
You can just click the "about" tab: > Paul Romer, economist and policy entrepreneur, is a co-recipient of the 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics Sciences and University Professor in Economics at NYU. He has spent his career at the intersection of economics, innovation, technology, and urbanization, working to speed up human progress. I personally do find it surprising how over seasonal effects are often the primary number reported, and there isn't much effort to really understand them. This was especially problematic for reporting unemployment numbers during the pandemic. All of the published unemployment numbers during the pandemic included seasonal effects, which is absurd to anyone giving the situation even a moments thought. Clearly the impact of the pandemic disrupted whatever seasonal pattern there may have been during stable period. For unemployment during the pandemic including these seasonal effects would often invert conclusions about the data (e.g. "unemployment is higher this month" when the non-adjusted values were lower and vice versa). Often times when we really care about an economic indicator it's during times where something strange is happening meaning we should be cautious about unquestioningly using seasonal effects in models.
- fauxpause_ 4y ago
  Idk. Seasonal effects may be tricky, but that graph showing just two years is certainly not strong evidence of that as the author claims. He makes reference to a prediction of a 100 bps decline, I think by the end of the year which seems kind of silly to me given the numbers appear to swing by more then 1000 bps over individual months. I’d be curious what he’s actually basing the claim on. He has some sort of model. I’d hope it’s not just based on what is shown in the article
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rfmc 4y ago
It's a Nobel Prize winner in Economics, which doesn't mean much judging by the article, specially the creative interpretation of the data displayed in it.
- TheOtherHobbes 4y ago
  There is no Nobel Prize for Economics. It's officially the "Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel," it dates from 1968 not 1900, it isn't part of the original prizes funded by Nobel, there's no evidence Nobel - given his distrust of the profit motive - would have approved, and it's funded with an endowment from Sweden's Central Bank. There have been calls for it to be abolished. To say some of the awards have been controversial among science and arts laureates would be a huge understatement.
  - kgwgk 4y ago
    > and it's funded with an endowment from Sweden's Central Bank. At least the money doesn't come from selling armament... > To say some of the awards have been controversial among science and arts laureates would be a huge understatement. More controversial than Nobel Peace Prizes?
    - q845712 4y ago
      I think the original Nobel prize was some guy realizing he hadn't done enough good in his life and trying to rectify it. I think the economics prize was a group of people with ties to money and power trying to add weight and credence to theories that would support their continued access to money and power. Neither is flawless but one is much more ... noble?... than the other.
      - Clubber 4y ago
        It was the guy who invented dynamite. Dynamite is pretty useful in extracting stuff and building stuff when things like mountains are in the way. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Nobel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Nobel
JenrHywy 4y ago
Dismissing someone of Roamer's stature in his field of expertise has to be peak HN.
- PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
  Would it be ok if Paul Krugman did it, though?
  - JenrHywy 4y ago
    Well, at least Krugman would know who he was talking about.
  - PheonixPharts 4y ago
    Disagreeing and dismissing are two very different things. There is nothing wrong with disagreeing with even the most respected of experts, history has proven they can be wrong often. Simply ignoring someone because "I don't know who this is" is generally a bad idea, and even more ridiculous when that person does in fact have a well known reputation.
    - fauxpause_ 4y ago
      I’m not dismissing them. I didn’t know who they are. I simply stated that the article is trying to make a claim about seasonal effects by pointing two just two years of data. Which is dumb. Doesn’t matter who does it. I disagree with the rigor of the analysis. I don’t have any strong opinions on the takeaways.

PheonixPharts 4y ago

You can just click the "about" tab: > Paul Romer, economist and policy entrepreneur, is a co-recipient of the 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics Sciences and University Professor in Economics at NYU. He has spent his career at the intersection of economics, innovation, technology, and urbanization, working to speed up human progress. I personally do find it surprising how over seasonal effects are often the primary number reported, and there isn't much effort to really understand them. This was especially problematic for reporting unemployment numbers during the pandemic. All of the published unemployment numbers during the pandemic included seasonal effects, which is absurd to anyone giving the situation even a moments thought. Clearly the impact of the pandemic disrupted whatever seasonal pattern there may have been during stable period. For unemployment during the pandemic including these seasonal effects would often invert conclusions about the data (e.g. "unemployment is higher this month" when the non-adjusted values were lower and vice versa). Often times when we really care about an economic indicator it's during times where something strange is happening meaning we should be cautious about unquestioningly using seasonal effects in models.

fauxpause_ 4y ago
Idk. Seasonal effects may be tricky, but that graph showing just two years is certainly not strong evidence of that as the author claims. He makes reference to a prediction of a 100 bps decline, I think by the end of the year which seems kind of silly to me given the numbers appear to swing by more then 1000 bps over individual months. I’d be curious what he’s actually basing the claim on. He has some sort of model. I’d hope it’s not just based on what is shown in the article

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rfmc 4y ago

It's a Nobel Prize winner in Economics, which doesn't mean much judging by the article, specially the creative interpretation of the data displayed in it.

TheOtherHobbes 4y ago
There is no Nobel Prize for Economics. It's officially the "Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel," it dates from 1968 not 1900, it isn't part of the original prizes funded by Nobel, there's no evidence Nobel - given his distrust of the profit motive - would have approved, and it's funded with an endowment from Sweden's Central Bank. There have been calls for it to be abolished. To say some of the awards have been controversial among science and arts laureates would be a huge understatement.
- kgwgk 4y ago
  > and it's funded with an endowment from Sweden's Central Bank. At least the money doesn't come from selling armament... > To say some of the awards have been controversial among science and arts laureates would be a huge understatement. More controversial than Nobel Peace Prizes?
  - q845712 4y ago
    I think the original Nobel prize was some guy realizing he hadn't done enough good in his life and trying to rectify it. I think the economics prize was a group of people with ties to money and power trying to add weight and credence to theories that would support their continued access to money and power. Neither is flawless but one is much more ... noble?... than the other.
    - Clubber 4y ago
      It was the guy who invented dynamite. Dynamite is pretty useful in extracting stuff and building stuff when things like mountains are in the way. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Nobel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Nobel

JenrHywy 4y ago

Dismissing someone of Roamer's stature in his field of expertise has to be peak HN.

PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
Would it be ok if Paul Krugman did it, though?
- JenrHywy 4y ago
  Well, at least Krugman would know who he was talking about.
- PheonixPharts 4y ago
  Disagreeing and dismissing are two very different things. There is nothing wrong with disagreeing with even the most respected of experts, history has proven they can be wrong often. Simply ignoring someone because "I don't know who this is" is generally a bad idea, and even more ridiculous when that person does in fact have a well known reputation.
  - fauxpause_ 4y ago
    I’m not dismissing them. I didn’t know who they are. I simply stated that the article is trying to make a claim about seasonal effects by pointing two just two years of data. Which is dumb. Doesn’t matter who does it. I disagree with the rigor of the analysis. I don’t have any strong opinions on the takeaways.