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You can make all the predictions you want. Predictions are forward looking, not backwards. Saying your predictions are obviously correct in hindsight is engagin
by drstewart 4y ago
You can make all the predictions you want. Predictions are forward looking, not backwards. Saying your predictions are obviously correct in hindsight is engaging in survivorship bias.
Easy way to prove this is to ask people what the obvious winners and losers will be in the next 5 years, and then see how they've allocated they're investments to that. If you can predict the market so obviously, you'll be rich.