3 ms·

Remember that general-purpose computers use orders of magnitude more energy than specialized hardware for the same task. So if bitcoin uses (say) 0.05% of energ

Remember that general-purpose computers use orders of magnitude more energy than specialized hardware for the same task. So if bitcoin uses (say) 0.05% of energy globally, matching the hashrate using general-purpose hardware (assuming an alternate reality where the planet has enough hardware for someone to attempt this) would require something like 5% of global energy usage. Diverting that much energy away from the rest of the world is not even remotely feasible.

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> would require something like 5% of global energy usage Fair enough, supercomputers + cloud was optimistic. They can’t do 40 zettaflops. Half of that, worst case, we could, though not triviallt. For bursts at a time. (Worst case because the math supercomputers designed to break encryption do is similar to that required to break Bitcoin.) Practically speaking, were we to do this, we’d procure the ASICs. (And target in-jurisdiction mining, lowering the hurdle.) No private party is particularly incentivised to launch such an attack de novo. We may never need to actually attack: a law appropriating tens of billions to create a crypto deterrent would crash prices on its own.
- overthrow 3y ago
  > a law appropriating tens of billions to create a crypto deterrent would crash prices on its own Doubt that. All that would happen is driving the industry underground or overseas. It wouldn't be the first time a government overplayed its hand and failed to acknowledge that bitcoin is a global technology. https://data.nasdaq.com/data/BCHAIN/HRATE-bitcoin-hash-rate https://data.nasdaq.com/data/BCHAIN/HRATE-bitcoin-hash-rate That isn't slowing down. I have exactly 0 faith that governments across the world could start from scratch and cooperate to outpace and then surpass the private sector in a chip fabrication project, no matter how many billions they throw at it.
  - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
    > cooperate to outpace and then surpass the private sector in a chip fabrication project You move to seize it. ASICS are manufactured in China and among American allies.
    - overthrow 3y ago
      Seizing overseas fabs to attack a private industry would be a historically unprecedented, diplomatically suicidal move. It wouldn't stay secret for more than an hour, and they'd have to stay and operate the fabs for years to manufacture enough chips. Then of course while that's happening, the rest of us would use that time to prepare a mitigation, not sit around on our ass for 5 years waiting. But sure, I guess they could try.
- mr_woozy 3y ago
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JumpCrisscross 3y ago

> would require something like 5% of global energy usage Fair enough, supercomputers + cloud was optimistic. They can’t do 40 zettaflops. Half of that, worst case, we could, though not triviallt. For bursts at a time. (Worst case because the math supercomputers designed to break encryption do is similar to that required to break Bitcoin.) Practically speaking, were we to do this, we’d procure the ASICs. (And target in-jurisdiction mining, lowering the hurdle.) No private party is particularly incentivised to launch such an attack de novo. We may never need to actually attack: a law appropriating tens of billions to create a crypto deterrent would crash prices on its own.

overthrow 3y ago
> a law appropriating tens of billions to create a crypto deterrent would crash prices on its own Doubt that. All that would happen is driving the industry underground or overseas. It wouldn't be the first time a government overplayed its hand and failed to acknowledge that bitcoin is a global technology. https://data.nasdaq.com/data/BCHAIN/HRATE-bitcoin-hash-rate https://data.nasdaq.com/data/BCHAIN/HRATE-bitcoin-hash-rate That isn't slowing down. I have exactly 0 faith that governments across the world could start from scratch and cooperate to outpace and then surpass the private sector in a chip fabrication project, no matter how many billions they throw at it.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > cooperate to outpace and then surpass the private sector in a chip fabrication project You move to seize it. ASICS are manufactured in China and among American allies.
  - overthrow 3y ago
    Seizing overseas fabs to attack a private industry would be a historically unprecedented, diplomatically suicidal move. It wouldn't stay secret for more than an hour, and they'd have to stay and operate the fabs for years to manufacture enough chips. Then of course while that's happening, the rest of us would use that time to prepare a mitigation, not sit around on our ass for 5 years waiting. But sure, I guess they could try.
mr_woozy 3y ago
[dead]