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> This seems like a bit of 20/20 hindsight. I dunno about you, but I and basically everyone in my circles at the time agreed that it was most likely a terrible
by danaris 4y ago
> This seems like a bit of 20/20 hindsight.
I dunno about you, but I and basically everyone in my circles at the time agreed that it was most likely a terrible idea.
Until and unless there's a truly convenient piece of hardware to get one into a virtual space—I'm talking weight and bulk comparable to prescription eyeglasses, no wires going beyond your body (ie, maybe a pack at the belt/pocket/something like that), and some form of extremely intuitive UI—you're not going to get people interested in regular interactions in a VR/AR space.
Frankly, even once we do have something like that, I think it unlikely that many people would choose to do things like meetings in a virtual space over something simpler like Zoom, even if they did already own the hardware.
And none of these views have changed over the past few years.
No; I think Zuck has been far too isolated and out of touch with how regular people operate for too long, and when faced with, as you say, the fact that Facebook was only running on other people's platforms—and it became clear that no one was interested in making Facebook their platform, like by buying a Facebook phone—he convinced himself that this was The Next Big Thing based on sheer desperation.
- meroes 4y agoIs there not a single product expert leading any company in big tech anymore? What’s going on. Growing up I was used to there being more useful and fun tech gadgets than I could ever afford. Now it’s like unless they own your entire online presence they don’t want your money. Give me that dumb iPod v1.0 which gets sand in the wheel and lasts an hour on battery but for VR. The idea was all your music on the go and it met that goal. For VR it should be hands free/hands minimal portable productivity. Give that shitty resolution and battery life. I would take navigating YouTube, PDFs, email at the lowest res feasible and 2 hour batteries and isn’t gigantic and prevents you from normal activities. Don’t build a multi billion dollar platform.
- gowld 4y ago> I would take navigating YouTube, PDFs, email at the lowest res feasible and 2 hour batteries and isn’t gigantic and prevents you from normal activities. Why? Who else would want that?
- fknorangesite 4y agoI know, right? The only reason to want a "fun gadget" like that is if you're the kind of person who enjoys gadgets for gadgets' sake. Which is fine - we all have our interests. But I'm not a Gadget Guy. Why would I want shitty YouTube in VR when I have good YouTube on my phone?
- danaris 4y agoIn general, I think it's very hard for a "product expert" to obtain or hold leadership of a company once it gets large. The "bureaucracy experts" have a huge advantage in that realm. And that's not inherently a bad thing. Despite his often shrill detractors, Tim Cook, who's definitely a "bureaucracy expert" more than he is a "product expert", has done a darn good job leading Apple since Steve Jobs' untimely death. The thing is, he knows to listen to the product experts, and to put the really good ones in positions of some power within the hierarchy. The problem comes when your "bureaucracy experts" only value what they understand: Bureaucracy. Numbers. Finances, especially in the short-term sense. Now, I honestly don't think this is precisely Zuckerberg's problem. From what I've seen, I don't think he's necessarily a "bureaucracy expert" himself—but nor is he a "product expert" in the same sense as someone like Jobs or Ive; he helped to create the original Facebook, but I don't believe he's ever come up with any other products that have seen any real success (though correct me if I'm wrong). He's more of a founder who rode a wave of money to where he is, and bought into the idea that that meant he was somehow smarter than everyone else.
- rabf 4y agoYou might like these: https://www.nreal.ai/ https://www.nreal.ai/
- epolanski 4y agoI struggle to understand what's that for.
- drstewart 4y ago>I dunno about you, but I and basically everyone in my circles at the time agreed that it was most likely a terrible idea. Same. No wireless, less space than a Nomad. Lame.
- danaris 4y agoYou appear to be trying to imply that because one prominent tech guy (CmdrTaco) pooh-poohed the iPod at its announcement, only for it to become a smash hit, anyone who looks at an announcement and says "I don't think this will do very well" is automatically wrong...? Or something? There are fairly serious differences between the release of the iPod and the announcement of Facebook's shift to "Meta", and one guy being wrong one time, however famously, does not have any implications for other people being wrong in completely different circumstances, so this feels pointlessly dismissive.
- drstewart 4y agoYou can make all the predictions you want. Predictions are forward looking, not backwards. Saying your predictions are obviously correct in hindsight is engaging in survivorship bias. Easy way to prove this is to ask people what the obvious winners and losers will be in the next 5 years, and then see how they've allocated they're investments to that. If you can predict the market so obviously, you'll be rich.
- cmdrtaco 4y agoAlso, I was right about THAT iPod! 2 years later they got the product right and when people reference this quote, THAT is the product they have in their minds eye.
- danaris 4y agoGood heavens; speak of the Commander and he shall appear. Didn't even know you were on here!