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You should look up global search volumes and Google share of it. There’s no dent
by jimsimmons 4y ago
You should look up global search volumes and Google share of it. There’s no dent
- dmix 4y agoPeople like to be predictors of doom before the hard evidence comes out.
- cfeduke 4y ago> There’s no dent By the time there is a dent, it's too late.
- andy_ppp 4y agoSounds great but you’ll have to provide some logic because I don’t automatically follow your extremely confident opinion…
- lenkite 4y agoPeople here are praying very hard for Twitter to fail. Nearly any social media post nowadays has 50-100 comments predicting Twitter's failure and ranting about Musk. He is living rent-free in many heads now. Its utterly ludicrous how so many intelligent and rational people are becoming un-hinged whenever Twitter/Musk is mentioned.
- laratiede 4y ago[dead]
- gessha 4y agoAny publicity is good publicity it seems like. People don’t get that hating is not the opposite of love, it’s indifference. Mute and forget.
- andy_ppp 4y agoI just sent the second part of this to my friend WRT his ex-wife…
- theturtletalks 4y agoHate is just confused admiration
- Nathanba 4y agoIt reminds me of the Trump thing, it seems people really lose all rationality when they are faced with a man who publically doesn't care and does whatever he wants and is successful at it. I wonder if we will one day have a psychological name for this. It must be related to something in the human brain that touches on social repression and decades of instilled moral codes like "Don't say this, nobody will like you" and then when somebody does it anyway, you feel like it's an invader from a different tribe or a tribe member violating the fabric of what holds together the tribe. When really, he's not doing much different at all and they'd privately do the same exact jokes as a kid like "Twitter is Titter! haha! Like titties get it?" I bet lots of people had such a dumb thought but repressed it and when a supposed adult and major social figure acts like that, it evokes anger that the tribe is in danger.
- inpdx 4y ago"and is successful at it." Overpaying, creating a mass exodus, destabilizing the platform, and losing tons of advertisers is "successful?"
- Nathanba 4y agoThe Twitter thing is still in progress and probably his first project where you could say that he has a problem
- 4ggr0 4y agoWhat are your thoughts about The Boring Company?
- phs318u 4y agoI’d argue that one of the reasons Tesla and SpaceX are successful is not just because Elno is a “visionary” (or functional equivalent). It’s because he was/is supported by a cadre of “true believers” (eg that we must disrupt the auto industry in order to do something radical about climate change). Those true believers (like all true believers), are willing to put up with lots of strange behaviour in the name of that belief. Twitter on the other hand was bought with a management layer that could fairly be characterised as the opposite of true believers in whatever Elon is selling. Hence the implosion.
- bandyaboot 4y agoApparently the people that have Musk living rent free in their heads are living rent free in your head.
- SketchySeaBeast 4y agoMental subletting.
- sanderjd 4y agoI actually think the "living rent free in heads" peaked awhile ago. At this point it's just clear in a more pedestrian way that things aren't going well over there.
- emodendroket 4y agoThe fear of investors and, to some extent, Google, is that LLMs will supplant traditional search and by the time enough people are catching on to affect metrics the momentum will be too great to stop. My experience with LLMs has not led me to believe that is all that likely but opinions differ there.
- andy_ppp 4y agoWe need search to be able to fact check the LLMs, but this might become extremely difficult once all the content is written by them…
- wolpoli 4y agoJust like how it is hard to fact-check Wikipedia now that it's used a reference. A thought came to me - perhaps it's Wikipedia that should be worried that it'll be supplanted by LLMs.
- jrmg 4y ago[citation needed]
- jamilton 4y agoThe phenomenon they're referring to is when something spurious is posted on Wikipedia with no or poor citations, then used as the source for a "reputable" article (without citations), then the article is cited by Wikipedia, making the spurious information look more trustworthy.
- callalex 4y ago1) that hardly ever happens, it hasn’t caused any widespread issues in the decades Wikipedia has existed. 2) All sources are cited so they can be easily verified by the reader.
- abathur 4y agohttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma
- Nathanba 4y agoWhen Chrome launched, it only launched with ~2-3% market share in the first week compared to Firefox. Everyone thought that Chrome wasn't that good and Firefox would be fine. However I knew on day one that Firefox was in serious trouble and I switched browsers immediately. But what I didn't know is that Firefox would do nothing to compete for 10 years.
- taeric 4y agoChrome launched with an absurd amount of money to burn, though. And... I don't recall this "everyone" that you are citing. Chrome launched when Google had a ton of good will.
- TechBro8615 4y ago> Chrome launched with an absurd amount of money to burn OpenAI has $100bn+ from Microsoft, and millions of paying subscribers.
- datpiff 4y ago$100bn+? https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/08/microsofts-complex-bet-on-openai-brings-potential-and-uncertainty.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/08/microsofts-complex-bet-on-op... "Microsoft’s $13 billion bet on OpenAI carries huge potential along with plenty of uncertainty"
- TechBro8615 3y agoYeah, no idea where I got this $100bn number in my head... I guess that does sound pretty ridiculous now that I think about it!
- jshen 4y agoHow many of the companies with the largest market cap (top 15) were also in the top 15 20 years ago? Why do you think Google will be an exception to this reality?
- boo-ga-ga 4y agoI think the answer is network effect. As soon as there appears a properly working easy accessible alternative (not Mastodon), people with will start moving to it. At first it won’t be visible in twitter’s popularity, but when the new service reaches some critical mass of users - the popularity will start falling quickly. Let’s see if Notes is this alternative.
- ekianjo 4y agoBy the time someone makes a bad argument its too late. We are beyond reason.
- markstos 4y agoI used Bing today. I’m denting.
- alfor 4y agoI tried Edge and bing, God awful. You just feel their desire to take control of your experience of the web. On the flip site, made me see how much Google own us all.
- raytube 4y agoI use ddg everyday and I hate it. I resort to Google shortly after. Not personalised so I guess I am missing out on decent returns.
- K5EiS 4y agoI tried ddg, but i found myself adding !g a lot, so i just switched back.
- propogandist 4y agotry Brave’s search service
- manmal 4y agoHave you tried kagi? I‘m finding it better than ddg and often on paar with G.
- andyjohnson0 4y ago+1 for Kagi. It's been my default search engine since Jan '22 and I'm very happy with it. On the rare occasions when I use Bing or Google I'm reminded all over again why I'm happy to pay for search.
- manmal 4y ago
- pantalaimon 4y agoIf AI assisted search gets larger it might be to Google what Google was to AltaVista
- mrkramer 4y agoGoogle controls distribution on Web through Google Chrome. How would AI assisted search even reach casual web users? Word of mouth is not enough.
- gremlinsinc 4y agoI switched to edge on all my devices (in hopes of getting early access to Bing Chat), and honestly there's a lot more features and it performs better, so they won't get anything from me except whatever they can milk from gmail. I haven't searched using them in over a year, used to use Brave Search, and You.com for awhile.
- ceejayoz 4y ago> You should look up global search volumes and Google share of it. There’s no dent. "You should look up global search volumes and Yahoo's share of it. There’s no dent" was once a valid statement. Same for Altavista, MySpace, etc. You can go from on top to the bottom very fast in this realm.
- geraneum 4y agoSame could be said when iPhone came out. Now look where Android is. The fact that something happened to others means nothing. Could go either way. edit: typo
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- wpietri 4y agoWell, it means it could go either way. Which with respect to Google and search is quite a novelty, as Google has been on top for 20 years, without a serious competitor for most of that time.
- nr2x 4y agoKey difference is Google pays a FUCKTON of money to be default search provider. The US Department of Justice is going after this. Once Google can’t pay-to-play in Safari and iOS they are in very deep shit. This is the classic thing with monopolies: eventually the “innovation” is just leveraging market power to deepen the moat by burning cash. This is what happens when the CFO runs the damn company. Sundar has no vision, at all, and Ruth’s vision is the same boring Wall Street play book that put a hundred tech companies in the ground.
- ceejayoz 4y ago> Key difference is Google pays a FUCKTON of money to be default search provider. Yahoo used to pay for that, and to package the Yahoo Toolbar pretty much everywhere. I remember when it used to try to install itself with MySQL. I'm sure it helps, for a while, until it suddenly doesn't.
- redmaverick 4y agoyou should look at all the blockbuster stores and Netflix's share of it. There's no dent. ~ Someone in 1997.
- jonathankoren 4y agoYou should look at all CD sales and minidisk’s share of it. There’s no dent.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- nr2x 4y agoKodak had pretty strong film sales when the first digital cameras hit the market as well.
- thrashh 4y agoYeah but that doesn’t mean anything. Kodak saw a train coming, did a study that told them that they had to do something, but then sat on the tracks. Fuji, who was also big in the chemical film business, came out just fine.
- nr2x 4y agoI take it you don’t work at Google?
- mgfist 4y ago> Kodak saw a train coming, did a study that told them that they had to do something, but then sat on the tracks. Replace "Kodak" with "Google" and that's the exact impression I get from friends who work there
- nr2x 4y agoI just resigned from Google. There’s no future with current leadership. I was a at high level (6), with an incredibly broad scope of responsibility, making an absurd amount of money. But life is too short to spend my days propping up a dying monopoly when there’s bigger game to chase. It’s also institutionally arrogant, they really think they are the best, Jeff Dean and Urs are Gods, and no other company can do what Google does. OpenAI just destroyed that myth, yet on the inside they haven’t woken up to the change.
- gremlinsinc 4y agoHey, myself and an ex-microsoft dev (like 2007-2008, not recent), with some VP experience have teamed up. We're working on memory solutions for AI, as well as creating better agents, workflows, etc... In the early days it'll mostly be a GUI over langchain/autogpt/babyAGI, eventually it might morph to creating our own in-house brain-like database, something beyond vectors (or built on top of them w/ a better ranking/indexing based on frequency/recency). Hit me up, if you'd consider partnering up.
- QuantumYeti 4y agoI actually just switched all our default search engines to Bing yesterday. Google is showing "Sponsors" that link directly to a full screen page with tons of warnings telling you to call some 800 number so you can get scammed. And that's after nearly downloading a fake Blender install a few weeks ago. I'm done with it.
- jononomo 4y agoI just switched to Bing about three months ago -- I haven't noticed any difference, to be honest.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago1. ChatGPT is very, very new, and habits change slowly 2. For non plus users, chatGPT UX is poor with slow responses, captchas and random logouts 3. All of this will eventually change There is no more major growth for Google, which is all that matters to Wall Street. It will go down slowly, but it will go down.
- drexlspivey 4y ago> For non plus users, chatGPT UX is poor with slow responses, captchas and random logouts There are tons of free custom UIs to chatGPT by now, all vastly superior to OpenAI’s. No captchas or login screens, just paste your API token once and it gets stored in local storage.
- sundarurfriend 4y agoThanks for mentioning this. I'd assumed this was the case, but I'd been wary of using them because I wasn't sure which of them would be reliable and non-sketchy. Your comment made me take a second look, this time specifically for FOSS custom UIs, and https://chatwithgpt.netlify.app/ https://chatwithgpt.netlify.app/ seems pretty decent (and is FOSS).
- drexlspivey 4y agoYou can also put a hard dollar limit on OpenAI just to be safe.
- mrkramer 4y agoGoogle wanted to be an Answer Machine before ChatGPT hence "I'm Feeling Lucky" button but road to there is long and hard. I think the biggest Google's problems are SEO spam often coupled with scams and fraud and last but not least, lack of transparency on how exactly they rank their search results.
- gonzo41 4y agoI don't think we should pretend that google doesn't have the power to crush spam today if it wanted to. They have chosen to let scrappers have top spots in their search results and their reputation is dying as a result.