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Except that the reason for the comeback of Polio are not anti-vaxx people, but flaws of the original vaccine itself: "The U.S. case and most of the current out

Except that the reason for the comeback of Polio are not anti-vaxx people, but flaws of the original vaccine itself: "The U.S. case and most of the current outbreaks in Africa (which was declared a polio-free continent in 2020) are linked to vaccine-derived strains of the virus. These strains were originally part of oral polio vaccine" "Last year there were only 30 cases of wild polio detected while there were nearly 800 cases of vaccine-derived polio. Of the 15 cases reported in the first quarter of 2023, 14 are from strains of the virus that mutated from the oral polio vaccine used in lower-income nations."

epgui 4y ago
> Except that the reason for the comeback of Polio are not anti-vaxx people, but flaws of the original vaccine itself No, it's both factors together. Without skyrocketing anti-vaxx prevalence, even the vaccine defects would have been self-limiting collateral. Anti-vaxx is what turned a linear problem into an exponentially growing problem.
- hutzlibu 4y ago
  Ok, so can you cite a reasearcher who shares your opinion? We are talking about large scale campaigns that were thought to be succesful as they were widely deployed. But the virus simply mutated back to dangerous. solution: expensive and working vaccine problem: cost
  - xupybd 4y ago
    You've over simplified the problem. Yes infinite resources would solve this. However, the cost is astronomical. You require not just the vaccine but the infrastructure to support it in regions that are very far off this level of infrastructure. It will take generations of political stability in these nations to get there. That doesn't look likely anytime soon.
  - epgui 4y ago
    I’m sure you could go and cherry-pick someone who had the opposite opinion somewhere, but in reality this is not a very controversial position. It’s introductory textbook / basic reasoning material (if you consider “basic population dynamics” to be “basic”, that is). The only thing I can think of that would make what I said wrong would be if the mutation rate of the iatrogenic strain was many orders of magnitude higher than the wild strain, which does not appear to be the case. And even then, I’d say it would be a “maybe” at most.

epgui 4y ago

> Except that the reason for the comeback of Polio are not anti-vaxx people, but flaws of the original vaccine itself No, it's both factors together. Without skyrocketing anti-vaxx prevalence, even the vaccine defects would have been self-limiting collateral. Anti-vaxx is what turned a linear problem into an exponentially growing problem.

hutzlibu 4y ago
Ok, so can you cite a reasearcher who shares your opinion? We are talking about large scale campaigns that were thought to be succesful as they were widely deployed. But the virus simply mutated back to dangerous. solution: expensive and working vaccine problem: cost
- xupybd 4y ago
  You've over simplified the problem. Yes infinite resources would solve this. However, the cost is astronomical. You require not just the vaccine but the infrastructure to support it in regions that are very far off this level of infrastructure. It will take generations of political stability in these nations to get there. That doesn't look likely anytime soon.
- epgui 4y ago
  I’m sure you could go and cherry-pick someone who had the opposite opinion somewhere, but in reality this is not a very controversial position. It’s introductory textbook / basic reasoning material (if you consider “basic population dynamics” to be “basic”, that is). The only thing I can think of that would make what I said wrong would be if the mutation rate of the iatrogenic strain was many orders of magnitude higher than the wild strain, which does not appear to be the case. And even then, I’d say it would be a “maybe” at most.