6 ms·

Any bets she actually reports? Odds anyone? I feel a woman of her means and personality may try to disappear, go off grid. Does she still have access to money

Any bets she actually reports? Odds anyone? I feel a woman of her means and personality may try to disappear, go off grid. Does she still have access to money? Were her assets frozen?

jeffwask 3y ago
She tried before sentencing and was caught. https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/20/tech/elizabeth-holmes-mexico/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/20/tech/elizabeth-holmes-mexico/...
tptacek 3y ago
People say stuff like this because it's fun to talk about, not because it's a live issue. Do you actually want to bet? There aren't a lot of serious odds you could suggest for this where I wouldn't bet she shows up, like everybody else does.
- standardUser 3y ago
  The last I heard, the founders of Ubiome had fled the country and are wanted by the FBI after their company was raided. Not everyone "shows up" if they have the means to flee.
  - tptacek 3y ago
    Do you actually want to bet? I'd be happy to take your money.
    - Alupis 3y ago
      No, because there's probably a lot of eyeballs on her at this moment. She's probably the very definition of a flight risk I would imagine, given her personality, the scope of her crimes, and her previous attempt to flee. However, you make it sound like it's super difficult to disappear. It can be as simple as getting on a boat and sailing off into the night, or an airplane... no Hollywood plot necessary - no one would have any clue who was onboard, and depending on the destination, they may not care either.
      - itsoktocry 3y ago
        >No, because there's probably a lot of eyeballs on her at this moment. Going on the lam for the rest of your life, with (or without?) your two young children, can't be a whole lot better than serving your white-collar time, can it? I mean, it's not like she's independently wealthy and can vanish to some tropical island.
      - JohnFen 3y ago
        Disappearing is easy. Staying disappeared is much more difficult, particularly if you are interested in living even a moderately normal life.
        notch898b 3y ago
        I mean for her yeah. The average guy wanted on a felony for stealing cars or something, could probably be fine working as an agricultural worker on a farm in Brazil or something for the rest of their life. I've met plenty of white euro looking people in South America living off the black market and frankly no one would bother to find out who they were unless their were some big reward, and usually there isn't.
  - ExMachina73 3y ago
    You're right! Interesting. My original comment about odds wasn't a serious request to make a bet, just hyperbole. It does seem given her high profile if she did flee, she'd be right on the FBI top-10 most wanted list.
    - tptacek 3y ago
      She'd instantly get caught, and it would have a profound effect on the next 15 years of her life (for instance: it would immediately put her in a higher security class of detention).
      - nullc 3y ago
        Why do you say she'd instantly get caught?
        pas 3y ago
        unlikely that she has the know how, network, grit, etc. to get to the middle of nowhere and stay there forever without drawing attention.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
shadowgovt 3y ago
That would be a bad idea. Skipping town on a sentence puts one in a rarified category where enforcement is now a federal problem, and the FBI has long memories, an international reach, and no statute of limitations on how long they can hunt a person who is sentenced. At which point, if they fall back under US custody, they get to start their sentence (as well as go on trial for the additional penalties associated with fleeing custody). I'm aware of one case where for a suspect in a murder, the FBI put together a yacht party in a foreign country, got the target on the ship, sailed it out to international waters, and took them into custody at that point. I'm loathe to see what ends they'd go to to apprehend someone with a sentence hanging over them.
- cale- 3y ago
  That case sounds interesting, but I couldn't find anything on a cursory google. Can you provide some more details? Thanks
  - shadowgovt 3y ago
    It was passed to me orally by an FBI trainer at Quantico during a visit once; I have no primary source other than that.
  - 23B1 3y ago
    Might be the Fawaz Younis thing: https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/fawaz-younis https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/fawaz-younis
- dragonwriter 3y ago
  > Skipping town on a sentence puts one in a rarified category where enforcement is now a federal problem Enforcement of federal crimes like those Holmes was charged with is federal to start with. Skipping sentence makes it a US Marshals’ problem, though. > I’m aware of one case where for a suspect in a murder, the FBI put together a yacht party in a foreign country, got the target on the ship, sailed it out to international waters, and took them into custody at that point. Federal law enforcement has straight up hired people to kidnap a suspect from a country with which we have an extradition treaty; your example is hardly extreme. (And I’m talking about before the War on Terror.) Though the best example of that is the DEA, not the FBI: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Alvarez-Machain https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Alvarez-Macha...
boeingUH60 3y ago
You definitely don’t want to be a fugitive. If she tries to escape and gets caught (chances are any escapee will), they’ll stick her in a tough high-security prison, not the minimum security camp she’s meant to report to.
stametseater 3y ago
A woman of her means is not accustomed to life on the run.
- Alupis 3y ago
  There are many places that do not extradite, even if you are known to be living there. Life on the run is a Hollywood thing - the CIA isn't going to kick down her door and blackbag her back to the US. If she leaves the US, she is effectively gone unless she does something really stupid.
  - gamblor956 3y ago
    The CIA does not deal with fugitives....but the FBI does. They have a task force devoted to tracking down fugitives. The FBI generally works through Interpol to bring back international fugitives (for example, Tamara Dadyan) but will also "blackbag" fugitives if necessary. It's just not necessary to do that very often.
    - Alupis 3y ago
      The list of countries that do not extradite or cooperate with international law enforcement is surprisingly large... it's not just tropical islands. There's also plenty of countries that would enjoy harboring a wanted US person.
      - gamblor956 3y ago
        The list of countries that don't extradite to the U.S. and the list of countries a wealthy person would want to live in don't have much overlap, unless you think Syria and Somalia are wonderful places to live. (There are a number of countries, like Indonesia and Vatican City that don't have extradition treaties with the U.S. but which will extradite to the U.S. through Interpol.)
        deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
paxys 3y ago
Spending a couple years in minimum security prison before being let out for "good behavior" with your slate clean is a much better prospect than spending your entire life on the run from the law.
- ExMachina73 3y ago
  According to the wikipedia article, even with good behavior she will serve a minimum 9.5 years with no possibility of parole. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Elizabeth_A._Holmes,_et_al.#Sentencing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Elizabeth_A._...
rurp 3y ago
I don't know, living off of the grid sounds like it can get pretty uncomfortable. She doesn't really seem like the roughing it type. She probably has a better chance of using her money and connections to try and overturn the conviction on appeal, or maybe beg a future president for a pardon.

Any bets she actually reports? Odds anyone? I feel a woman of her means and personality may try to disappear, go off grid. Does she still have access to money? Were her assets frozen?

jeffwask 3y ago

She tried before sentencing and was caught. https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/20/tech/elizabeth-holmes-mexico/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/20/tech/elizabeth-holmes-mexico/...

tptacek 3y ago

People say stuff like this because it's fun to talk about, not because it's a live issue. Do you actually want to bet? There aren't a lot of serious odds you could suggest for this where I wouldn't bet she shows up, like everybody else does.

standardUser 3y ago
The last I heard, the founders of Ubiome had fled the country and are wanted by the FBI after their company was raided. Not everyone "shows up" if they have the means to flee.
- tptacek 3y ago
  Do you actually want to bet? I'd be happy to take your money.
  - Alupis 3y ago
    No, because there's probably a lot of eyeballs on her at this moment. She's probably the very definition of a flight risk I would imagine, given her personality, the scope of her crimes, and her previous attempt to flee. However, you make it sound like it's super difficult to disappear. It can be as simple as getting on a boat and sailing off into the night, or an airplane... no Hollywood plot necessary - no one would have any clue who was onboard, and depending on the destination, they may not care either.
    - itsoktocry 3y ago
      >No, because there's probably a lot of eyeballs on her at this moment. Going on the lam for the rest of your life, with (or without?) your two young children, can't be a whole lot better than serving your white-collar time, can it? I mean, it's not like she's independently wealthy and can vanish to some tropical island.
    - JohnFen 3y ago
      Disappearing is easy. Staying disappeared is much more difficult, particularly if you are interested in living even a moderately normal life.
      - notch898b 3y ago
        I mean for her yeah. The average guy wanted on a felony for stealing cars or something, could probably be fine working as an agricultural worker on a farm in Brazil or something for the rest of their life. I've met plenty of white euro looking people in South America living off the black market and frankly no one would bother to find out who they were unless their were some big reward, and usually there isn't.
- ExMachina73 3y ago
  You're right! Interesting. My original comment about odds wasn't a serious request to make a bet, just hyperbole. It does seem given her high profile if she did flee, she'd be right on the FBI top-10 most wanted list.
  - tptacek 3y ago
    She'd instantly get caught, and it would have a profound effect on the next 15 years of her life (for instance: it would immediately put her in a higher security class of detention).
    - nullc 3y ago
      Why do you say she'd instantly get caught?
      - pas 3y ago
        unlikely that she has the know how, network, grit, etc. to get to the middle of nowhere and stay there forever without drawing attention.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

shadowgovt 3y ago

That would be a bad idea. Skipping town on a sentence puts one in a rarified category where enforcement is now a federal problem, and the FBI has long memories, an international reach, and no statute of limitations on how long they can hunt a person who is sentenced. At which point, if they fall back under US custody, they get to start their sentence (as well as go on trial for the additional penalties associated with fleeing custody). I'm aware of one case where for a suspect in a murder, the FBI put together a yacht party in a foreign country, got the target on the ship, sailed it out to international waters, and took them into custody at that point. I'm loathe to see what ends they'd go to to apprehend someone with a sentence hanging over them.

cale- 3y ago
That case sounds interesting, but I couldn't find anything on a cursory google. Can you provide some more details? Thanks
- shadowgovt 3y ago
  It was passed to me orally by an FBI trainer at Quantico during a visit once; I have no primary source other than that.
- 23B1 3y ago
  Might be the Fawaz Younis thing: https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/fawaz-younis https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/fawaz-younis
dragonwriter 3y ago
> Skipping town on a sentence puts one in a rarified category where enforcement is now a federal problem Enforcement of federal crimes like those Holmes was charged with is federal to start with. Skipping sentence makes it a US Marshals’ problem, though. > I’m aware of one case where for a suspect in a murder, the FBI put together a yacht party in a foreign country, got the target on the ship, sailed it out to international waters, and took them into custody at that point. Federal law enforcement has straight up hired people to kidnap a suspect from a country with which we have an extradition treaty; your example is hardly extreme. (And I’m talking about before the War on Terror.) Though the best example of that is the DEA, not the FBI: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Alvarez-Machain https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Alvarez-Macha...

boeingUH60 3y ago

You definitely don’t want to be a fugitive. If she tries to escape and gets caught (chances are any escapee will), they’ll stick her in a tough high-security prison, not the minimum security camp she’s meant to report to.

stametseater 3y ago

A woman of her means is not accustomed to life on the run.

Alupis 3y ago
There are many places that do not extradite, even if you are known to be living there. Life on the run is a Hollywood thing - the CIA isn't going to kick down her door and blackbag her back to the US. If she leaves the US, she is effectively gone unless she does something really stupid.
- gamblor956 3y ago
  The CIA does not deal with fugitives....but the FBI does. They have a task force devoted to tracking down fugitives. The FBI generally works through Interpol to bring back international fugitives (for example, Tamara Dadyan) but will also "blackbag" fugitives if necessary. It's just not necessary to do that very often.
  - Alupis 3y ago
    The list of countries that do not extradite or cooperate with international law enforcement is surprisingly large... it's not just tropical islands. There's also plenty of countries that would enjoy harboring a wanted US person.
    - gamblor956 3y ago
      The list of countries that don't extradite to the U.S. and the list of countries a wealthy person would want to live in don't have much overlap, unless you think Syria and Somalia are wonderful places to live. (There are a number of countries, like Indonesia and Vatican City that don't have extradition treaties with the U.S. but which will extradite to the U.S. through Interpol.)
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]

paxys 3y ago

Spending a couple years in minimum security prison before being let out for "good behavior" with your slate clean is a much better prospect than spending your entire life on the run from the law.

ExMachina73 3y ago
According to the wikipedia article, even with good behavior she will serve a minimum 9.5 years with no possibility of parole. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Elizabeth_A._Holmes,_et_al.#Sentencing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Elizabeth_A._...

rurp 3y ago

I don't know, living off of the grid sounds like it can get pretty uncomfortable. She doesn't really seem like the roughing it type. She probably has a better chance of using her money and connections to try and overturn the conviction on appeal, or maybe beg a future president for a pardon.