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I hope you understand how your comment can easily interpreted like fossil fuel advocacy. Trying to split hair over coal vs natural gas is just a distraction whe

by belorn 4y ago

I hope you understand how your comment can easily interpreted like fossil fuel advocacy. Trying to split hair over coal vs natural gas is just a distraction when the issue should be to ban fossil fuels. As a EU ban it would cover both Poland and Germany, and a bunch of other countries that current depend heavily on fossil fuel and who have very few alternatives for periods of high demand and low supply. It would be costly in the short run and require a lot of investment, but every new construction of a fossil fuel plant goes directly against the goal of zero emissions and is a plain failure to reach the global climate crisis. There is also a huge loss of public trust when green party politicians are advocating to keep subsidizing fossil fuel plants. If environmentalist want to keep oil and natural gas plants, then how will the public be convinced of climate change? The strategy need to be clear and fossil fuel free, and if that solution is wind, solar and storage then that plan need to be up front and part of the budget discussions. It should not be the argument from environmentalists that we should be using natural gas because it happen to be cheaper that nuclear.

cinntaile 4y ago
> It would be costly in the short run and require a lot of investment It seems like you already know why it's not realistic. Fossil fuels fulfill the role of a marginal power source very well, neither renewables nor nuclear can replace that role as of yet. There are still plenty of issues that need to be solved towards electrification, lets not make it unrealistically difficult for ourselves.
- belorn 4y ago
  With the goal of keeping the grid as cheap as possible it is indeed unrealistic to care about global warming or the environment. The only thing that matter is to use what ever technology is cheapest at any given job at any given location, and especially focusing on fast returns on investments and political policies that can provide windfall during a single election cycle. It is however not a policy I would advocate or vote for. I rather oppose fossil fuels especially when they are being subsidized through taxes. Europe can also not really handle an other winter, especially if the weather would not be exceptional mild. Bailouts can only be paid so many times before it becomes unrealistic.
  - cinntaile 4y ago
    That's not quite what's happening, there is not just one goal. It's just that having as cheap electricity as possible is one of many competing goals that they try to optimize for. This winter and perhaps the one after that as well will be interesting for sure, after that the major natural gas risk should be mitigated by having enough LNG terminals and supply. There is still quite a bit of leeway to reduce taxes on electricity, but when you're short on supply you might not want to incentivize electricity use.
    - belorn 4y ago
      When the wind is optimal, wind power is the cheapest possible energy source. When the sun is optimal, solar is cheapest. When neither is true, natural gas is the cheapest solution in the short run. This is not just what the economics say, it is also the official strategy in several nations as I mentioned before. Trying to disincentivize electricity use during periods of low supply do not work. Governments feel forced to step in if factories has to shut down or people can't heat their homes. Those not willing gets voted out, as was also demonstrated this winter. All this is a local maximum where every action is rational but the result is terrible for everyone involved. Paying through taxes does not actually make the energy price low, and the massive cost to the environment will have to be paid at some point in the future. More LNG terminals and more fossil fuel plants will not make the situation better. Demand through electrification is growing faster than the economic savings from using even more fossil fuels, and when winter comes the same scenario as last will occur. The only ones who will profit is those countries that export fossil fuels.

by belorn 4y ago

cinntaile 4y ago

> It would be costly in the short run and require a lot of investment It seems like you already know why it's not realistic. Fossil fuels fulfill the role of a marginal power source very well, neither renewables nor nuclear can replace that role as of yet. There are still plenty of issues that need to be solved towards electrification, lets not make it unrealistically difficult for ourselves.

belorn 4y ago
With the goal of keeping the grid as cheap as possible it is indeed unrealistic to care about global warming or the environment. The only thing that matter is to use what ever technology is cheapest at any given job at any given location, and especially focusing on fast returns on investments and political policies that can provide windfall during a single election cycle. It is however not a policy I would advocate or vote for. I rather oppose fossil fuels especially when they are being subsidized through taxes. Europe can also not really handle an other winter, especially if the weather would not be exceptional mild. Bailouts can only be paid so many times before it becomes unrealistic.
- cinntaile 4y ago
  That's not quite what's happening, there is not just one goal. It's just that having as cheap electricity as possible is one of many competing goals that they try to optimize for. This winter and perhaps the one after that as well will be interesting for sure, after that the major natural gas risk should be mitigated by having enough LNG terminals and supply. There is still quite a bit of leeway to reduce taxes on electricity, but when you're short on supply you might not want to incentivize electricity use.
  - belorn 4y ago
    When the wind is optimal, wind power is the cheapest possible energy source. When the sun is optimal, solar is cheapest. When neither is true, natural gas is the cheapest solution in the short run. This is not just what the economics say, it is also the official strategy in several nations as I mentioned before. Trying to disincentivize electricity use during periods of low supply do not work. Governments feel forced to step in if factories has to shut down or people can't heat their homes. Those not willing gets voted out, as was also demonstrated this winter. All this is a local maximum where every action is rational but the result is terrible for everyone involved. Paying through taxes does not actually make the energy price low, and the massive cost to the environment will have to be paid at some point in the future. More LNG terminals and more fossil fuel plants will not make the situation better. Demand through electrification is growing faster than the economic savings from using even more fossil fuels, and when winter comes the same scenario as last will occur. The only ones who will profit is those countries that export fossil fuels.