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The real limiting factor of AGI is not going to be AGI -- it's going to be everything else. Digitization of the last mile (instrumentation, feedback), local ne

by ethbr0 4y ago

The real limiting factor of AGI is not going to be AGI -- it's going to be everything else. Digitization of the last mile (instrumentation, feedback), local networking, local compute, business familiarity with technology, standardized processes, regulatory environment, etc. AGI will happen when it happens. But if it happens and an economy doesn't have all the enabling prerequisites, it's not going to have time to develop them, because those are years-long migration and integration efforts. Which doesn't bode well for AGI + developing economies.

jasfi 4y ago
It's already here, it's just weak.
wongarsu 4y ago
> AGI + developing economies I wouldn't be so sure about that because of the Region Beta paradox. Developed countries have processes that work, making all of them digital and connected is often a bigger uphill battle than starting from zero and doing it right the first time. See also communication infrastructure in developing economies. It's often much easier to get good internet connection (in reasonably populated areas) if there is no 100-year-old copper infrastructure around that is "good enough" for many.
- ethbr0 4y ago
  Fair point! On the one hand, I'd say developed countries are much farther along in digitizing (as part of efficiency optimization) their processes. Mostly by virtue that their companies are essentially management/orchestration processes on top of subcontracted manufacturing. On the other hand, it gives developing countries an opportunity to skip the legacy step and go right to the state of the art. I'm still skeptical the latter will dominate though. I'd assume most of the developing world is still operating "good enough to work" processes, which are largely manual. Digitizing those processes will be a nightmare, because it plays out on organizational-political timespans.

by ethbr0 4y ago

jasfi 4y ago

It's already here, it's just weak.

wongarsu 4y ago

> AGI + developing economies I wouldn't be so sure about that because of the Region Beta paradox. Developed countries have processes that work, making all of them digital and connected is often a bigger uphill battle than starting from zero and doing it right the first time. See also communication infrastructure in developing economies. It's often much easier to get good internet connection (in reasonably populated areas) if there is no 100-year-old copper infrastructure around that is "good enough" for many.

ethbr0 4y ago
Fair point! On the one hand, I'd say developed countries are much farther along in digitizing (as part of efficiency optimization) their processes. Mostly by virtue that their companies are essentially management/orchestration processes on top of subcontracted manufacturing. On the other hand, it gives developing countries an opportunity to skip the legacy step and go right to the state of the art. I'm still skeptical the latter will dominate though. I'd assume most of the developing world is still operating "good enough to work" processes, which are largely manual. Digitizing those processes will be a nightmare, because it plays out on organizational-political timespans.