4 ms·

4 years ?!? That’s like a century in AI-dog years. Who knows how the world will be by then.

by omneity 4y ago

truetraveller 4y ago
[flagged]
- pell 4y ago
  I think I’ve used it so much that a sentence in I assumed it was ChatGPT. It has a certain way of speaking.
  - alwayslikethis 4y ago
    I would describe it as unassertive and trying to present things as multifaceted even when they are not.
  - tough 4y ago
    Yes, very recognisable, too polite and servicial for any real human
    - PartiallyTyped 4y ago
      I am willing to bet that a model finetuned on HN will be the bombastic and arrogant enough to pass just fine. The bullshit is already there.
      - tough 4y ago
        I can confirm, you can see the LLM generated cracked news that someone shared a couple days back. LLM generated articles, comments, and the full suite. It sounded very real even with funny sounding topics lol https://crackernews.github.io/ https://crackernews.github.io/
        PartiallyTyped 4y ago
        It is indeed cracked up LOL
        omneity 4y ago
        This is so brilliant! But wow. Look at one of the generated comments, self-awareness incoming soon. > What if we're all just GPT-generated comments in a GPT-generated world, and this is our existence now? https://crackernews.github.io/comments/startuptechnews.com-gpt-10-generates-startups/ https://crackernews.github.io/comments/startuptechnews.com-g...
        tough 4y ago
        Hahaha I hadn't read that one. This made my day too codeWrangler42 32 minutes ago | parent | next [–] This is getting out of hand. GPT-10 generating entire startups now? What's next? GPT-20 generating entire planets? reply devRambler 12 minutes ago | parent | next [–] I can't wait for GPT-30, it'll solve world hunger by generating perfectly optimized food distribution systems. reply quantumLeap2023 4 minutes ago | parent | next [–] GPT-40 will probably just generate an entirely new universe for us to live in. reply
  - truetraveller 4y ago
    Why the downvotes? HN is funny...I spent a portion of my life giving HN users a free glimpse of ChatGPT...and I get downvoted + flagged. ChatGPT might actually be more objective, and less passive-aggressive!
    - jsnell 4y ago
      AI-generated comments are explicitly forbidden on HN, and should be flagged. See: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35210503 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35210503 Everyone has access to ChatGPT, there's no need for you to "give a free glimpse".
preommr 4y ago
Is it? I think the recent release of ChatGPT has skewed perceptions. There's no guarantee that there's going to continue to be as ground breaking shifts that have happened recently with llms and diffusion models. To continue with the popular comparison, there were a lot of apps when the iphone first launced the app store before it tapered off. If you looked at just the first year, you'd think we'd have an app for every moment of our day.
- vasco 4y ago
  Also quality of google search after the first few years didn't meaningfully improve as a user. I'd expect the big ramp up we're in to taper off as well. Once you reach the point where you train a model on the corpus of "the whole internet", that's it, all you can do is incrementally train it. Of course there can be whole new architectures but that's harder to put your eggs in for investing.
  - pixl97 4y ago
    You're forgetting that AI has not been trained on YouTube yet and that's the next big thing. Multi-modality still has a lot of gas left in it.
    - Xelynega 4y ago
      I don't think there's enough third world countries to categorize and sanitize a dataset from YouTube. Meta would have to "give internet" to a few more before we can start dreaming that big.
      - pixl97 4y ago
        You've not been paying much attention then... AI is doing a huge amount of classification on it's own these days.
- omneity 4y ago
  Here's the catch, people are still adapting to GPT tech, still figuring out ways to make use of it, to include it in their workflows, etc. Social impact of ChatGPT even in its current form is only getting started, it doesn't need to progress at all to be super disruptive. For example, see the frontpage story about the $80/h writer who was replaced by ChatGPT, and that just happened recently, months after ChatGPT's first release. We (humans) are getting boiled like the proverbial frog.
audunw 4y ago
AI seems to progress in bursts, and I think we're in the middle of one, but it may be naive to think the progress will continue at the same pace for another 4 years. When Big Blue beat Kasparov in Chess in 1997, I wonder if anyone would've guessed that it'd take almost 20 years for a computer to beat a master in Go. IBM Watson was launched in 2010 and had many of the same promises as GPT. It supposedly fell flat in many cases in the real world. I think GPT and other models of the same level can succeed commercially on the same tasks within the next 1-4 years, but that shows it can easily be a decade from some kind of demonstration to actual game changing applications.
- simonster 4y ago
  Given the field's record of AI winters, it would be naive to think progress will certainly continue, but given the amount of progress that has been made as well as how it's being made, it would also be naive to think it will certainly not. The advances that have come in the last few years have been driven first and foremost by compute and secondarily by methodology. The compute can continue to scale for another couple orders of magnitude. It's possible that we'll be bottlenecked by methodology; there are certain things that current networks are simply incapable of, like learning from instructions and incorporating that knowledge into their weights. That said, one of the amazing things about recent successes is that the precise methodology doesn't seem to matter so much. Diffusion is great, but autoregressive image generation models like Parti also generate nice images, albeit at a higher computational cost. RL from human feedback achieves impressive results, but chain of hindsight (supposedly) achieves similar results without RL. It's entirely plausible to me that the remaining challenges on the path to AGI can be solved by obvious ideas + engineering + scaling + data from the internet. We've also gotten to the point where AI systems can make substantial contributions to engineering more powerful AI systems, and maybe soon, to ideation. We haven't yet figured out how to extract all of the productivity gains from the systems we already have, and next-generation systems will provide larger productivity gains, even if they are just scaled up versions of current-generation systems.
- MattRix 4y ago
  Even if the technology froze at GPT-4 and never advanced, it would still be enough to change the world in all kinds of ways. The fact that the tech is still advancing as well is huge. Also now you’re seeing tons of solo devs, startups, and large corporations all coming up with new ways to use AI. This “burst” is not like the others you mentioned.

4 years ?!? That’s like a century in AI-dog years. Who knows how the world will be by then.

truetraveller 4y ago

[flagged]

pell 4y ago
I think I’ve used it so much that a sentence in I assumed it was ChatGPT. It has a certain way of speaking.
- alwayslikethis 4y ago
  I would describe it as unassertive and trying to present things as multifaceted even when they are not.
- tough 4y ago
  Yes, very recognisable, too polite and servicial for any real human
  - PartiallyTyped 4y ago
    I am willing to bet that a model finetuned on HN will be the bombastic and arrogant enough to pass just fine. The bullshit is already there.
    - tough 4y ago
      I can confirm, you can see the LLM generated cracked news that someone shared a couple days back. LLM generated articles, comments, and the full suite. It sounded very real even with funny sounding topics lol https://crackernews.github.io/ https://crackernews.github.io/
      - PartiallyTyped 4y ago
        It is indeed cracked up LOL
      - omneity 4y ago
        This is so brilliant! But wow. Look at one of the generated comments, self-awareness incoming soon. > What if we're all just GPT-generated comments in a GPT-generated world, and this is our existence now? https://crackernews.github.io/comments/startuptechnews.com-gpt-10-generates-startups/ https://crackernews.github.io/comments/startuptechnews.com-g...
        tough 4y ago
        Hahaha I hadn't read that one. This made my day too codeWrangler42 32 minutes ago | parent | next [–] This is getting out of hand. GPT-10 generating entire startups now? What's next? GPT-20 generating entire planets? reply devRambler 12 minutes ago | parent | next [–] I can't wait for GPT-30, it'll solve world hunger by generating perfectly optimized food distribution systems. reply quantumLeap2023 4 minutes ago | parent | next [–] GPT-40 will probably just generate an entirely new universe for us to live in. reply
- truetraveller 4y ago
  Why the downvotes? HN is funny...I spent a portion of my life giving HN users a free glimpse of ChatGPT...and I get downvoted + flagged. ChatGPT might actually be more objective, and less passive-aggressive!
  - jsnell 4y ago
    AI-generated comments are explicitly forbidden on HN, and should be flagged. See: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35210503 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35210503 Everyone has access to ChatGPT, there's no need for you to "give a free glimpse".

preommr 4y ago

Is it? I think the recent release of ChatGPT has skewed perceptions. There's no guarantee that there's going to continue to be as ground breaking shifts that have happened recently with llms and diffusion models. To continue with the popular comparison, there were a lot of apps when the iphone first launced the app store before it tapered off. If you looked at just the first year, you'd think we'd have an app for every moment of our day.

vasco 4y ago
Also quality of google search after the first few years didn't meaningfully improve as a user. I'd expect the big ramp up we're in to taper off as well. Once you reach the point where you train a model on the corpus of "the whole internet", that's it, all you can do is incrementally train it. Of course there can be whole new architectures but that's harder to put your eggs in for investing.
- pixl97 4y ago
  You're forgetting that AI has not been trained on YouTube yet and that's the next big thing. Multi-modality still has a lot of gas left in it.
  - Xelynega 4y ago
    I don't think there's enough third world countries to categorize and sanitize a dataset from YouTube. Meta would have to "give internet" to a few more before we can start dreaming that big.
    - pixl97 4y ago
      You've not been paying much attention then... AI is doing a huge amount of classification on it's own these days.
omneity 4y ago
Here's the catch, people are still adapting to GPT tech, still figuring out ways to make use of it, to include it in their workflows, etc. Social impact of ChatGPT even in its current form is only getting started, it doesn't need to progress at all to be super disruptive. For example, see the frontpage story about the $80/h writer who was replaced by ChatGPT, and that just happened recently, months after ChatGPT's first release. We (humans) are getting boiled like the proverbial frog.

audunw 4y ago

AI seems to progress in bursts, and I think we're in the middle of one, but it may be naive to think the progress will continue at the same pace for another 4 years. When Big Blue beat Kasparov in Chess in 1997, I wonder if anyone would've guessed that it'd take almost 20 years for a computer to beat a master in Go. IBM Watson was launched in 2010 and had many of the same promises as GPT. It supposedly fell flat in many cases in the real world. I think GPT and other models of the same level can succeed commercially on the same tasks within the next 1-4 years, but that shows it can easily be a decade from some kind of demonstration to actual game changing applications.

simonster 4y ago
Given the field's record of AI winters, it would be naive to think progress will certainly continue, but given the amount of progress that has been made as well as how it's being made, it would also be naive to think it will certainly not. The advances that have come in the last few years have been driven first and foremost by compute and secondarily by methodology. The compute can continue to scale for another couple orders of magnitude. It's possible that we'll be bottlenecked by methodology; there are certain things that current networks are simply incapable of, like learning from instructions and incorporating that knowledge into their weights. That said, one of the amazing things about recent successes is that the precise methodology doesn't seem to matter so much. Diffusion is great, but autoregressive image generation models like Parti also generate nice images, albeit at a higher computational cost. RL from human feedback achieves impressive results, but chain of hindsight (supposedly) achieves similar results without RL. It's entirely plausible to me that the remaining challenges on the path to AGI can be solved by obvious ideas + engineering + scaling + data from the internet. We've also gotten to the point where AI systems can make substantial contributions to engineering more powerful AI systems, and maybe soon, to ideation. We haven't yet figured out how to extract all of the productivity gains from the systems we already have, and next-generation systems will provide larger productivity gains, even if they are just scaled up versions of current-generation systems.
MattRix 4y ago
Even if the technology froze at GPT-4 and never advanced, it would still be enough to change the world in all kinds of ways. The fact that the tech is still advancing as well is huge. Also now you’re seeing tons of solo devs, startups, and large corporations all coming up with new ways to use AI. This “burst” is not like the others you mentioned.