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... You are willfully failing to understand the concept of correlation. Sun and wind are anticorrelated in most regions. Adding both reduces the storage needed
by Schroedingersat 4y ago
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You are willfully failing to understand the concept of correlation. Sun and wind are anticorrelated in most regions. Adding both reduces the storage needed. It doesn't increase it. Condescendingly stating that solar alone requires 12 hours of batteries does not make it any less true that solar + wind is superior to wind.
Transmission costs money and raw materials and depending on it entirely (as an all wind or all nuclear solution would) makes the whole system brittle.
Seeing as you are positing zero cost for transmission you can just put all of the solar in the least cloudy areas with 30% capacity factor and uncorrelated weather.
Given the assumption of no transmission costs, try this tool:
https://model.energy https://model.energy
Using real costs for real projects that actually exist, and "dispatchable 1" to model existing hydro, you can solve for the optimal mix:
https://model.energy/?results=3491f4124100114a1c3ba16966390326#solve https://model.energy/?results=3491f4124100114a1c3ba169663903...
It almost always involves solar, because PV is the cheapest energy source by at least a factor of two over about 70% of the inhabited world.
The smaller the region and the less long distance transmission, the more correlated the wind and the more solar is optimal.
https://model.energy/?results=732e5306df0bde74aa22f57433e5883a#solve https://model.energy/?results=732e5306df0bde74aa22f57433e588...
https://model.energy/?results=e0560182e98eef88fa715ec2a0b118b2#solve https://model.energy/?results=e0560182e98eef88fa715ec2a0b118...
Plus tilting solar (which this tool does not model) in some regions matches the CF of wind.
Some transmission, some solar, some wind, and some other/hydro will always be a better toolbox to have than just wind and transmission.
Throwing solar away entirely because of an irrational response to the isolated results of a specific residential install with no transmission is just as crazy as trying to shoe-horn more LWRs than it is possible to fuel even once into the solution.
Also you're not putting enough constraints on your land use estimates to make the numbers comparable in any coherent way. A high coverage fixed tilt system at low latitude has a coverage ratio of about 90% or 180W (nameplate) per m^2. A single axis system has a lower coverage ratio around 100W/m^2 but a higher capacity factor. You can't go using median CF if you're assuming transmission is free (what was that about how stupid people who assume averages for everything are?), you'd be putting all your solar in the southwest where capacity factors are 30% for 50% coverage ratios and the *net* energy per unit area would be higher than what you're assuming for nameplate. In either case your figures for land use are not consistent with your assumptions.
Finally wind isn't infinite. You can't just go and find another TW of world class wind resource. There is plenty if used sensibly, but you can't magic more out of nothing.
- robomartin 4y ago> You are willfully failing to understand the concept of correlation. No, I am not. I am saying that this correlation is irrelevant because wind has overwhelming advantages over solar. > A single axis system has a lower coverage ratio around 100W/m^2 but a higher capacity factor. Tilting/tracking systems are a nightmare that is horribly expensive to maintain long term. It makes no sense to consider them at grid scale. > irrational response to the isolated results of a specific residential install These conclusions have nothing to do with a residential installation. Pretty much all the data comes from Tesla's plan, the references they provide and other reputable references. > what was that about how stupid people who assume averages for everything are? You can't control yourself, can you? I have tried, time and time again, to have a conversation with you over multiple threads. You simply cannot do this without resorting to insults. How sad. I am curious: What is your solution and how do you justify it? Do you agree with the findings and plan from Tesla's Master Plan Part 3? No? Why? Don't post a wall of links. Do the work and post a cogent argument people can attempt to follow and discuss. And stop insulting people in every thread you participate in. It makes it very difficult to develop any level of respect for what you are saying.
- Schroedingersat 4y agoThat was your insult, not mine. You have repeatedly attacked anyone who uses any aggregated statistic by insulting them. If you want people to respect you, stop talking down to them from a position of ignorance and stop being a hypocryte. If you disagree with the findings from the tesla plan (such as by blindly asserting that changing all the solar to wind will work without reference) then it's on you to back it up.
- robomartin 4y ago> That was your insult, not mine. You have repeatedly attacked anyone who uses any aggregated statistic by insulting them. That’s a lie! Provide a link and a quote from a comment where I do that. And you did say “repeatedly”, this should be easy. You cannot, because I don’t do that.
- 4y ago