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What if a flight only cost a nickel, but there was a 40% chance it blew up? Not all errors are equal. Sometimes 99% as good isn't even close to good enough.

What if a flight only cost a nickel, but there was a 40% chance it blew up? Not all errors are equal. Sometimes 99% as good isn't even close to good enough. But, yes, for most things 60% for 1/100th the price, is going to cut it.

no_wizard 4y ago
I’d say you’re flying Peruvian air in the 1970s
jabbany 4y ago
> What if a flight only cost a nickel, but there was a 40% chance it blew up? Everything has failure modes though so this isn't nearly as easy of a comparison... Just as an example on the analogy, there are plenty of cases of pilot suicide bringing down planes too that one would expect would never happen with pure automation... So you can just as easily turn the analogy around and say people are the "cheap but worse" option. FWIW, we have been able to create processes to manage risks with unpredictable humans, why couldn't we with AI ¯\\_(ツ)_/¯
- iudqnolq 4y ago
  > So you can just as easily turn the analogy around and say people are the "cheap but worse" option. No, because this is a factual question with a factual answer. You need to actually know which is more dangerous. > FWIW, we have been able to create processes to manage risks with unpredictable humans, why couldn't we with AI ¯\\_(ツ)_/¯ Because humans and AI are different? We are much better at predicting when humans will be wrong than with AI, for one.
xbmcuser 4y ago
Give this option to the thousands that take rickty boats from Asia and Africa for a better life. All your flights will be full.
Ekaros 4y ago
60% reliable car at 1/1000th of price might not be horrible deal. 13-50 vs 13000-50000 and surely you will accept quite many break downs. Even if you need to call taxi and buy new car...
- _heimdall 4y ago
  At least with cars it doesn't take 1/1000th the price to make it sell. Kia in the early 2000s offered buy one get one deals on their cars. The joke was always that already you would have one car on the road while the other was in the shop. They honestly were along the lines of 60% reliable compared to Honda or Toyota in my experience. Enough people bought them though that Kia eventually got it together and a decade later could sell a car every bit as good with a better warranty than the rest.
- DoesntMatter22 4y ago
  Are you crazy? That would be a phenomenal deal. Each car costs 30 bucks instead of 30k. Cars would literally be disposable. It's cheaper to throw away than fix. You buy 5 cars and when one breaks you toss it. This is a great deal
  - rainytuesday 4y ago
    It'd be cheaper than an Uber. That's what we're dealing with, its not like competing with foreign labor at 1/10th the price.

no_wizard 4y ago

I’d say you’re flying Peruvian air in the 1970s

jabbany 4y ago

> What if a flight only cost a nickel, but there was a 40% chance it blew up? Everything has failure modes though so this isn't nearly as easy of a comparison... Just as an example on the analogy, there are plenty of cases of pilot suicide bringing down planes too that one would expect would never happen with pure automation... So you can just as easily turn the analogy around and say people are the "cheap but worse" option. FWIW, we have been able to create processes to manage risks with unpredictable humans, why couldn't we with AI ¯\\_(ツ)_/¯

iudqnolq 4y ago
> So you can just as easily turn the analogy around and say people are the "cheap but worse" option. No, because this is a factual question with a factual answer. You need to actually know which is more dangerous. > FWIW, we have been able to create processes to manage risks with unpredictable humans, why couldn't we with AI ¯\\_(ツ)_/¯ Because humans and AI are different? We are much better at predicting when humans will be wrong than with AI, for one.

xbmcuser 4y ago

Give this option to the thousands that take rickty boats from Asia and Africa for a better life. All your flights will be full.

Ekaros 4y ago

60% reliable car at 1/1000th of price might not be horrible deal. 13-50 vs 13000-50000 and surely you will accept quite many break downs. Even if you need to call taxi and buy new car...

_heimdall 4y ago
At least with cars it doesn't take 1/1000th the price to make it sell. Kia in the early 2000s offered buy one get one deals on their cars. The joke was always that already you would have one car on the road while the other was in the shop. They honestly were along the lines of 60% reliable compared to Honda or Toyota in my experience. Enough people bought them though that Kia eventually got it together and a decade later could sell a car every bit as good with a better warranty than the rest.
DoesntMatter22 4y ago
Are you crazy? That would be a phenomenal deal. Each car costs 30 bucks instead of 30k. Cars would literally be disposable. It's cheaper to throw away than fix. You buy 5 cars and when one breaks you toss it. This is a great deal
- rainytuesday 4y ago
  It'd be cheaper than an Uber. That's what we're dealing with, its not like competing with foreign labor at 1/10th the price.