3 ms·
We're in for a period of stranded assets any way you slice it - if it's not the demographics or central bank moves, it's the technology. A lot of atoms in the
by syntheweave 4y ago
We're in for a period of stranded assets any way you slice it - if it's not the demographics or central bank moves, it's the technology.
A lot of atoms in the economy are on their way to finding substitutes, and it's disruptive to our understanding of where economic wealth is - valuation of land, raw materials, intellectual property. Those are things I don't want to hold during a restructuring because I won't have a clear view of where they ultimately land. My portfolio focus has gone towards embracing new/emerging asset classes, as those are proven survivors when the economy undergoes structural change. Just a matter of spreading risk so that the ones that go to zero are cancelled out by the 10x'ers.
Crypto is a big one in that portfolio - for as much as I complain about how misguided it can be, there's a there there, and the political tension around it reflects the fact that its adoption would be part of a major structural shift. The current wave of generative AI is also that, and EVs, self-driving, and other disruptive tech. All the stuff that gets people really hot and bothered.
- cs702 4y agoHmmm... I find your comment thought-provoking. I'm not as confident as you that the restructuring you talk about will occur so quickly, mainly because big things always take a lot longer than we expect in the short to medium term. I mean, it could be a decade or longer before everyday use of self-driving, EVs, generative AI, crypto-assets, etc. reach mass adoption. But long-term, I think you're unto something. You're making me rethink my assumptions :-)