The arguments being made in this article are remarkably poor, and the entire premise is poorly defined. What do you mean by "take over", "everyone", and especi

The arguments being made in this article are remarkably poor, and the entire premise is poorly defined. What do you mean by "take over", "everyone", and especially "soon"? If AI changes the world as much as the internet, personal computer, and/or automobile, does it really matter if it takes 6 months or 5 years? That's an extraordinary amount of change over such a period. That's worth the hype. > how, exactly, would AI be used to automate all jobs? Setting aside whether that’s even desirable—is it even possible? Obviously we can't automate literally every job at this time. You're still going to need a human around to feed questions or instructions into the machine and review or test the results, but automation was never going to eliminate all human labor simultaneously. Machinery reduces the number of humans you need. So far, this has always been the case. The printing press doesn't eliminate the need for people working on duplicating books. It means one person can do the work of a whole monastery. Stores still need cashiers to watch the automated checkouts, but now the machines can take care of 4 or 8 people at a time instead of 1. > OpenAI has touted GPT-4’s ability to pass numerous standardized tests—but did the model genuinely understand the tests, or simply train to reproduce the correct answers? It doesn't matter if the machine can think or feel. What matters is the result. > Still, it’s clear that a future in which “we automate away all the jobs, including the fulfilling ones,” is more than six months away, as the Future of Life Institute’s letter frets. Is this supposed to be comforting? I don't think anyone reasonable is under the misapprehension that they're going to be fired and replaced by GPT literally tomorrow. > Open AI’s ChatGPT-3.5 Turbo, for example, prices API access at roughly US $0.002 per 750 English words If you make $80k/yr, you're being paid something on the order of $0.64/min. You'd have to type pretty fast to overcome the two orders of magnitude between those numbers. And this is with current hardware. I know Moore's law isn't holding anymore, but computer hardware is still rapidly accelerating. It's also with the current trajectory of AI development. Nobody can say that won't accelerate. Similarly, nobody can say it won't slow down. We also don't yet know how or if humans will be able to react fast enough to the change on the horizon. Is the herald of a much better world or is it the antecedent to catastrophe. I don't know, and neither does the author of this article.