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> AI Can't Take Over Everyone's Jobs Soon (If Ever) Luddites - circa 2023

jamesfeve 4y ago
This is unbelievably ironic considering Luddites literally opposed the advancement and use of new technologies because they believed that it would put them out of business. Those screaming that AI must be stopped or it'll get rid of all of our jobs have far more in common with Luddites, and in fact the quote you're trying to compare to Luddite beliefs is in direct contradiction with them. Just like any technological improvement in all of human history, AI will replace some jobs and open up economic incentive for brand new ones to exist.
- pixl97 4y ago
  > considering Luddites literally opposed the advancement and use of new technologies because they believed that it would put them out of business. I don't think you really understand the story of the luddites that well. So, lets say I replace your job with AI today, also I replace the job you were going to get after this job with AI. Ok, you need to eat today, and need to pay your bills tomorrow. How exactly are you going to do that. I mean you can start retraining, but that's going to take months to years and you have days before you're kicked to the street. This is what the Luddites experienced. In the US we really have no, to nearly no social safety net. If there are mass layoffs because of AI it will cause deep issues in the employment world as everyone adjusts.
  - jamesfeve 4y ago
    >I don't think you really understand the story of the luddites that well Nothing you said was evidence that I don't understand the story well. You should leave your baseless opinion on my background with the topic out of it or provide evidence that what I said was incorrect. Additionally, nothing else that you said was relevant to my message. I'm not arguing with anyone about "the US social safety net". Calling someone that argues AI won't take your job anytime soon a "Luddite" is the exact opposite of what Luddites were. If I'm wrong, I'm happy to hear more about that.
  - convolvatron 4y ago
    if ai takes over a fraction of the customer service, creative, and white collar jobs - what exactly are we going to be retraining to do?
    - nsxwolf 4y ago
      And how do these companies that replaced all their workers make money when no one has any money to buy products or services anymore?
      - pixl97 4y ago
        Well you see, the government will print money and give it to the companies, the companies will buy up assets creating further asset inflation. The government will print more money for austerity and give it to the companies that will then use it to buy up other companies. In the end one large company will own just about everything, and the government won't do anything about it because they 'are too big to fail'. I mean, you could say that's not possible, but watching the markets over the last 15 years should give one pause to realize it's not completely improbable either.
        nsxwolf 4y ago
        I'm not a smart man. But I just don't see how any kind of economics work at this point. This sounds analogous to the universe eventually reaching the same temperature and pressure everywhere, and no events can occur ever again after that.
  - simonh 4y ago
    You’re completely missing the point. It was the Luddites that complained automation destroyed their jobs. They were right. People now are complaining AI will take away their jobs. Others disagree with them. Which of these two groups takes the modern role of the Luddites?
    - jamesfeve 4y ago
      >They were right [Citation needed] EDIT: Oh, we're being pedantic (I guess I kicked it off). "They were right", as in a group of individuals lost the employment they had at a particular time, reasonably believed to be a result of automation. Not that these people were unable to find new employment or that the total number of jobs available was reduced.
      - simonh 4y ago
        Just look up any history of the luddites. There are plenty of resources online. I don’t see why I should have to cite sources when I’m pointing out something utterly uncontroversial for anyone knowledgeable on the subject. Many of them were weaving workshop owners who lost their livelihood to automated factories. The transition to automation in the early 19th century was painful. That doesn’t mean I support what they did or think automation was wrong. In the grand scheme of things it was a necessary transition. That doesn’t mean nobody was hurt by it though. EDIT I’m not being pedantic. I just made a statement that was factually correct that I’m surprised I have to defend. You seem to be inferring a whole lot of baggage that just wasn’t there. BTW for context like the articles author I see LLMs as just being another productivity tool. They will become part of our work flows and will have effects similar to those of other productivity tools.
        namaria 4y ago
        Luddites were conducting industrial action. Their activity correlated strongly with union busting activity by the English elite. It has nothing to do with 'stopping progress' or trying to reverse automation.
nsxwolf 4y ago
So what do we do then? Should I just stuff a sock in the furnace exhaust tonight?
- DethNinja 4y ago
  You can’t do much, unless willing to take extreme actions. Elites will decide whether to kill off rest of the human population or allow them to scrape by via UBI. Though buying couple of commercial GPUs and building your own company via LLM based agents might be an option for some.

This is unbelievably ironic considering Luddites literally opposed the advancement and use of new technologies because they believed that it would put them out of business. Those screaming that AI must be stopped or it'll get rid of all of our jobs have far more in common with Luddites, and in fact the quote you're trying to compare to Luddite beliefs is in direct contradiction with them. Just like any technological improvement in all of human history, AI will replace some jobs and open up economic incentive for brand new ones to exist.

pixl97 4y ago
> considering Luddites literally opposed the advancement and use of new technologies because they believed that it would put them out of business. I don't think you really understand the story of the luddites that well. So, lets say I replace your job with AI today, also I replace the job you were going to get after this job with AI. Ok, you need to eat today, and need to pay your bills tomorrow. How exactly are you going to do that. I mean you can start retraining, but that's going to take months to years and you have days before you're kicked to the street. This is what the Luddites experienced. In the US we really have no, to nearly no social safety net. If there are mass layoffs because of AI it will cause deep issues in the employment world as everyone adjusts.
- jamesfeve 4y ago
  >I don't think you really understand the story of the luddites that well Nothing you said was evidence that I don't understand the story well. You should leave your baseless opinion on my background with the topic out of it or provide evidence that what I said was incorrect. Additionally, nothing else that you said was relevant to my message. I'm not arguing with anyone about "the US social safety net". Calling someone that argues AI won't take your job anytime soon a "Luddite" is the exact opposite of what Luddites were. If I'm wrong, I'm happy to hear more about that.
- convolvatron 4y ago
  if ai takes over a fraction of the customer service, creative, and white collar jobs - what exactly are we going to be retraining to do?
  - nsxwolf 4y ago
    And how do these companies that replaced all their workers make money when no one has any money to buy products or services anymore?
    - pixl97 4y ago
      Well you see, the government will print money and give it to the companies, the companies will buy up assets creating further asset inflation. The government will print more money for austerity and give it to the companies that will then use it to buy up other companies. In the end one large company will own just about everything, and the government won't do anything about it because they 'are too big to fail'. I mean, you could say that's not possible, but watching the markets over the last 15 years should give one pause to realize it's not completely improbable either.
      - nsxwolf 4y ago
        I'm not a smart man. But I just don't see how any kind of economics work at this point. This sounds analogous to the universe eventually reaching the same temperature and pressure everywhere, and no events can occur ever again after that.
- simonh 4y ago
  You’re completely missing the point. It was the Luddites that complained automation destroyed their jobs. They were right. People now are complaining AI will take away their jobs. Others disagree with them. Which of these two groups takes the modern role of the Luddites?
  - jamesfeve 4y ago
    >They were right [Citation needed] EDIT: Oh, we're being pedantic (I guess I kicked it off). "They were right", as in a group of individuals lost the employment they had at a particular time, reasonably believed to be a result of automation. Not that these people were unable to find new employment or that the total number of jobs available was reduced.
    - simonh 4y ago
      Just look up any history of the luddites. There are plenty of resources online. I don’t see why I should have to cite sources when I’m pointing out something utterly uncontroversial for anyone knowledgeable on the subject. Many of them were weaving workshop owners who lost their livelihood to automated factories. The transition to automation in the early 19th century was painful. That doesn’t mean I support what they did or think automation was wrong. In the grand scheme of things it was a necessary transition. That doesn’t mean nobody was hurt by it though. EDIT I’m not being pedantic. I just made a statement that was factually correct that I’m surprised I have to defend. You seem to be inferring a whole lot of baggage that just wasn’t there. BTW for context like the articles author I see LLMs as just being another productivity tool. They will become part of our work flows and will have effects similar to those of other productivity tools.
      - namaria 4y ago
        Luddites were conducting industrial action. Their activity correlated strongly with union busting activity by the English elite. It has nothing to do with 'stopping progress' or trying to reverse automation.

nsxwolf 4y ago

So what do we do then? Should I just stuff a sock in the furnace exhaust tonight?

DethNinja 4y ago
You can’t do much, unless willing to take extreme actions. Elites will decide whether to kill off rest of the human population or allow them to scrape by via UBI. Though buying couple of commercial GPUs and building your own company via LLM based agents might be an option for some.