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If you're not encoding your prior probability, you're just making stuff up. You almost always have some information, even if it's just sanity bounds.
by hgomersall 4y ago
If you're not encoding your prior probability, you're just making stuff up. You almost always have some information, even if it's just sanity bounds.
- whimsicalism 4y agoTrying to fit your preconception into a mathematically convenient conjugate distribution is not as far afield from making stuff up as people want to believe. Maybe it is better with numerical approaches. But yes, you usually do have some information and it is net better to encode when possible.