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I would guess that you could still make some profit, since once the stock is added to S&P500 it will raise at least a bit, since many people do invest in the in

I would guess that you could still make some profit, since once the stock is added to S&P500 it will raise at least a bit, since many people do invest in the index, but I would guess that this change is less noticeable now that many more people are looking out for stocks that are going to be added or are close to be added to the index. I'm also guessing that many have algorithms that check for stocks that fulfill the criteria to be added to the index.

stouset 4y ago
The whole point of this article is that, no, you can’t. This has already been priced in.
- carabiner 4y ago
  Don't even ask the question. The answer is yes, it's priced in. Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That's already been priced in. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don't already know that? The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born. Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil's expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc. Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren't thinking of. You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth. The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe). So please, before you make a post on wsb asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don't ask such a dumb fucking question again.
  - LoveMortuus 4y ago
    Then I guess, time in the market really does beat timing the market!
- LoveMortuus 4y ago
  Would the gain be actually zero? What I was pointing to was that you might still get a bit, not a lot, but it would still be a positive change, even though it might be a rounding error for many.
  - stouset 4y ago
    If the expected gain was nonzero, bigger players than you would already be exploiting this opportunity up to the point where the expected gain drops to zero.
FredPret 4y ago
No. The efficient market hypothesis doesn’t hold up.

stouset 4y ago

The whole point of this article is that, no, you can’t. This has already been priced in.

carabiner 4y ago
Don't even ask the question. The answer is yes, it's priced in. Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That's already been priced in. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don't already know that? The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born. Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil's expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc. Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren't thinking of. You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth. The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe). So please, before you make a post on wsb asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don't ask such a dumb fucking question again.
- LoveMortuus 4y ago
  Then I guess, time in the market really does beat timing the market!
LoveMortuus 4y ago
Would the gain be actually zero? What I was pointing to was that you might still get a bit, not a lot, but it would still be a positive change, even though it might be a rounding error for many.
- stouset 4y ago
  If the expected gain was nonzero, bigger players than you would already be exploiting this opportunity up to the point where the expected gain drops to zero.

FredPret 4y ago

No. The efficient market hypothesis doesn’t hold up.