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It's a short term effect though. Basically, in the Australian market, coal stopped being competitive. And as you rightly point out that's under political circum
by jillesvangurp 4y ago
It's a short term effect though. Basically, in the Australian market, coal stopped being competitive. And as you rightly point out that's under political circumstances that were very pro-coal and in a market where lithium batteries were still expensive and scarce. Despite this, those became a viable and popular solution. And by now a proven solution as well.
That's an economical effect that will be replicated elsewhere as well and as it happens, coal demand will suffer. In much of Europe and the US, coal stopped being a growth market about a decade ago. Many plants have already closed and few are expected to survive the next decade.
However, both India and China have am insatiable demand for power. They don't buy coal because it is cheap but because it is the only capacity available to them at a large enough scale. It's a stop gap solution. Of course especially China is working hard to address that supply issue. Ramping up production capacity is going to take time. Demand currently outstrips global production capacity by quite a big margin. But they are already market leaders and working hard to extend the lead.
Tesla just announced opening a new 40 GW megapack factory in China. That will double their output. But it's nowhere near enough. It seems they are one of the few companies able to operate at this scale. For now. That's not going to last of course. It's like printing money almost. They got in early and are benefiting from that right now. But it's inevitable that others will catch up.