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Yeah but Australia also happily digging vast quantities of coal out of the ground and selling it to India and China and elsewhere, utterly dwarfing any local cu

Yeah but Australia also happily digging vast quantities of coal out of the ground and selling it to India and China and elsewhere, utterly dwarfing any local cutbacks in usage. A land of opportunity (for the OzzieGarchs) and hypocrisy (for the politicians).

rgmerk 4y ago
Yes, we are hypocrites, but the export trade in thermal coal is doomed regardless.
IIAOPSW 4y ago
So. You can't solve everything at once, and you can't solve anything by being the noble idiot in the iterated prisoners dilemma. India and China will figure out a sustainable replacement in their own time. They have a much larger population inertia and thus it takes more time to phase out and replace things. At the same time, Australia will eventually phase out and replace those mining jobs.
- throwaway2037 4y ago
  You make good points. I'm not so hopeless. China and India in aggregate are expanding wind and solar power at a staggering rate. (India already has the world's single largest installation with more being planned.) Yes, in the short term, both India and China need a lot of coal for power and steel production. In the medium term, that will taper off as wind and solar (any _maybe_ nuclear) provides a greater share of electricity. More details here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_by_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_by_country
jillesvangurp 4y ago
It's a short term effect though. Basically, in the Australian market, coal stopped being competitive. And as you rightly point out that's under political circumstances that were very pro-coal and in a market where lithium batteries were still expensive and scarce. Despite this, those became a viable and popular solution. And by now a proven solution as well. That's an economical effect that will be replicated elsewhere as well and as it happens, coal demand will suffer. In much of Europe and the US, coal stopped being a growth market about a decade ago. Many plants have already closed and few are expected to survive the next decade. However, both India and China have am insatiable demand for power. They don't buy coal because it is cheap but because it is the only capacity available to them at a large enough scale. It's a stop gap solution. Of course especially China is working hard to address that supply issue. Ramping up production capacity is going to take time. Demand currently outstrips global production capacity by quite a big margin. But they are already market leaders and working hard to extend the lead. Tesla just announced opening a new 40 GW megapack factory in China. That will double their output. But it's nowhere near enough. It seems they are one of the few companies able to operate at this scale. For now. That's not going to last of course. It's like printing money almost. They got in early and are benefiting from that right now. But it's inevitable that others will catch up.

rgmerk 4y ago

Yes, we are hypocrites, but the export trade in thermal coal is doomed regardless.

IIAOPSW 4y ago

So. You can't solve everything at once, and you can't solve anything by being the noble idiot in the iterated prisoners dilemma. India and China will figure out a sustainable replacement in their own time. They have a much larger population inertia and thus it takes more time to phase out and replace things. At the same time, Australia will eventually phase out and replace those mining jobs.

throwaway2037 4y ago
You make good points. I'm not so hopeless. China and India in aggregate are expanding wind and solar power at a staggering rate. (India already has the world's single largest installation with more being planned.) Yes, in the short term, both India and China need a lot of coal for power and steel production. In the medium term, that will taper off as wind and solar (any _maybe_ nuclear) provides a greater share of electricity. More details here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_by_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_by_country

jillesvangurp 4y ago

It's a short term effect though. Basically, in the Australian market, coal stopped being competitive. And as you rightly point out that's under political circumstances that were very pro-coal and in a market where lithium batteries were still expensive and scarce. Despite this, those became a viable and popular solution. And by now a proven solution as well. That's an economical effect that will be replicated elsewhere as well and as it happens, coal demand will suffer. In much of Europe and the US, coal stopped being a growth market about a decade ago. Many plants have already closed and few are expected to survive the next decade. However, both India and China have am insatiable demand for power. They don't buy coal because it is cheap but because it is the only capacity available to them at a large enough scale. It's a stop gap solution. Of course especially China is working hard to address that supply issue. Ramping up production capacity is going to take time. Demand currently outstrips global production capacity by quite a big margin. But they are already market leaders and working hard to extend the lead. Tesla just announced opening a new 40 GW megapack factory in China. That will double their output. But it's nowhere near enough. It seems they are one of the few companies able to operate at this scale. For now. That's not going to last of course. It's like printing money almost. They got in early and are benefiting from that right now. But it's inevitable that others will catch up.