4 ms·

It's a delicate one. I would bet on Alphabet for the long term, the original inventors of the paper, together with DeepMind. But chatgpt like tech could have

It's a delicate one. I would bet on Alphabet for the long term, the original inventors of the paper, together with DeepMind. But chatgpt like tech could have an effect on their advertising income. The question would be if it affects their advertising or if it actually adds a service to sell to their pool. If it adds a service to their pool, both Alphabet and Microsoft could be winners. But it takes a huge amount of profits/revenue for a service to have any affect on the stock price for both of them. Additionally, AWS and Meta won't stand by. We've all seen how much Meta is prepared to fund Zucks vision and that's transformers now. They even released one before ChatGPT. https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/11/18/1063487/meta-large-language-model-ai-only-survived-three-days-gpt-3-science/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/11/18/1063487/meta-lar... Additionally, besides the impact, it's possible that it's not going to be as profitable as one would expect ( eg. because of price pressure due to competition)

jerrygenser 4y ago
There's been a brain drain from alphabet, why do you bet despite this?
- rvnx 4y ago
  Most of the people from the original Transformers left Google as far as I know, (including for OpenAI), so... NicoJuicy: Have you ever tried Bard, the "ChatGPT-Killer" (English-only btw) ?
  - NicoJuicy 4y ago
    No, I didn't. I know the results aren't that good yet. My guess was that they didn't apply RLHF much. There's going to be plenty of research coming in that area, I suppose.
spaceman_2020 4y ago
I can’t bet on Alphabet with the current leadership. You either need a visionary CEO or the original founders to have the courage to gut your entire revenue stream (ads) in pursuit of a new tech. Pichai is not that guy.
- NicoJuicy 4y ago
  You're betting against a 1,4 T behemoth on "code red" that invented Tensor flow, has enough compute for anything with custom hardware versus a company that "got 10 billion in azure compute credits". OpenAI may have a headstart. But it's still early for transformers. I'd guess that the brain drain that went into the media is a bit exaggerated for a company with 190 k. Employees. Every release of chatbots in the past of a multinational ( meta, Microsoft, alphabet) got ridiculed because it hallucinated. For some reason, the media ignored it more with OpenAI. Side-Notes: Apple is doing well and Cook isn't Jobs either. Ballmer still helped prepare everything for the next in line ( cloud, office for Mac, ... ). He was not popular and he made expensive mistakes ( Nokia). But Azure was released in 2008 during his leadership too.
  - spaceman_2020 4y ago
    As an end user, all I’ve seen from Google over the last few years is a search engine that can’t beat blogspam, a maps product that increasingly throws up bizarre directions, and a Google Docs product that has had no meaningful updates. Google has been fumbling the ball even in things it used to lead in.
    - NicoJuicy 4y ago
      You're timing is a bit unfortunate, 4 days ago - https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/6/23627809/google-docs-drive-ui-update-material https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/6/23627809/google-docs-drive... Blogspam has always been a cat and mouse game Maps works fine for me though, but that could be just my perception --- Microsoft has been rolling out updates fast though, their delivery pipeline is well done
      - standing_user 4y ago
        It doesn't change the point for Google docs & co, it's just a refresh of the UI not a breakthrough update with new features if I'm reading the news that you have posted
908B64B197 4y ago
> I would bet on Alphabet for the long term, the original inventors of the paper, together with DeepMind. > But chatgpt like tech could have an effect on their advertising income. An AI response costs a lot more to serve than a search query. Microsoft is integrating GPT into it's SaaS offerings (see copilot), where it adds new features (and is gaining traction for it's adds and search products). Meanwhile, for every GPT query served by Google, it costs them significantly more and can't be monetized right now with adds.
- kjellsbells 4y ago
  Microsoft may make a lot of money from chatgpt, but that doesn't mean they will topple google in search. Being able to democratize model training so that an enterprise could run gpt like tooling on their own internal data with no privacy concerns would be exceptionally valuable to a lot of enterprise and govt customers. If they add 5% to bing, that is a fantastic side effect, but i dont know that Microsoft care about that as much as the pundits think they do. Enterprise gpt as a service and copilot powered software development would be world changing enough.
  - 908B64B197 4y ago
    > If they add 5% to bing, that is a fantastic side effect, but i dont know that Microsoft care about that as much as the pundits think they do. Enterprise gpt as a service and copilot powered software development would be world changing enough. GPT will shrink the search business. Why go browse adds from a search engine when you can just ask the assistant already built-in the app you're using?
  - wefarrell 4y ago
    It’s currently possible to run ChatGPT in Azure on a custom dataset with privacy guarantees: https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/products/cognitive-services/openai-service https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/products/cognitive-service...

jerrygenser 4y ago

There's been a brain drain from alphabet, why do you bet despite this?

rvnx 4y ago
Most of the people from the original Transformers left Google as far as I know, (including for OpenAI), so... NicoJuicy: Have you ever tried Bard, the "ChatGPT-Killer" (English-only btw) ?
- NicoJuicy 4y ago
  No, I didn't. I know the results aren't that good yet. My guess was that they didn't apply RLHF much. There's going to be plenty of research coming in that area, I suppose.

spaceman_2020 4y ago

I can’t bet on Alphabet with the current leadership. You either need a visionary CEO or the original founders to have the courage to gut your entire revenue stream (ads) in pursuit of a new tech. Pichai is not that guy.

NicoJuicy 4y ago
You're betting against a 1,4 T behemoth on "code red" that invented Tensor flow, has enough compute for anything with custom hardware versus a company that "got 10 billion in azure compute credits". OpenAI may have a headstart. But it's still early for transformers. I'd guess that the brain drain that went into the media is a bit exaggerated for a company with 190 k. Employees. Every release of chatbots in the past of a multinational ( meta, Microsoft, alphabet) got ridiculed because it hallucinated. For some reason, the media ignored it more with OpenAI. Side-Notes: Apple is doing well and Cook isn't Jobs either. Ballmer still helped prepare everything for the next in line ( cloud, office for Mac, ... ). He was not popular and he made expensive mistakes ( Nokia). But Azure was released in 2008 during his leadership too.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  As an end user, all I’ve seen from Google over the last few years is a search engine that can’t beat blogspam, a maps product that increasingly throws up bizarre directions, and a Google Docs product that has had no meaningful updates. Google has been fumbling the ball even in things it used to lead in.
  - NicoJuicy 4y ago
    You're timing is a bit unfortunate, 4 days ago - https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/6/23627809/google-docs-drive-ui-update-material https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/6/23627809/google-docs-drive... Blogspam has always been a cat and mouse game Maps works fine for me though, but that could be just my perception --- Microsoft has been rolling out updates fast though, their delivery pipeline is well done
    - standing_user 4y ago
      It doesn't change the point for Google docs & co, it's just a refresh of the UI not a breakthrough update with new features if I'm reading the news that you have posted

908B64B197 4y ago

> I would bet on Alphabet for the long term, the original inventors of the paper, together with DeepMind. > But chatgpt like tech could have an effect on their advertising income. An AI response costs a lot more to serve than a search query. Microsoft is integrating GPT into it's SaaS offerings (see copilot), where it adds new features (and is gaining traction for it's adds and search products). Meanwhile, for every GPT query served by Google, it costs them significantly more and can't be monetized right now with adds.

kjellsbells 4y ago
Microsoft may make a lot of money from chatgpt, but that doesn't mean they will topple google in search. Being able to democratize model training so that an enterprise could run gpt like tooling on their own internal data with no privacy concerns would be exceptionally valuable to a lot of enterprise and govt customers. If they add 5% to bing, that is a fantastic side effect, but i dont know that Microsoft care about that as much as the pundits think they do. Enterprise gpt as a service and copilot powered software development would be world changing enough.
- 908B64B197 4y ago
  > If they add 5% to bing, that is a fantastic side effect, but i dont know that Microsoft care about that as much as the pundits think they do. Enterprise gpt as a service and copilot powered software development would be world changing enough. GPT will shrink the search business. Why go browse adds from a search engine when you can just ask the assistant already built-in the app you're using?
- wefarrell 4y ago
  It’s currently possible to run ChatGPT in Azure on a custom dataset with privacy guarantees: https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/products/cognitive-services/openai-service https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/products/cognitive-service...