9 ms·
Ask HN: What are the terms of the $10B Microsoft / OpenAI deal?
I have not found any good description of the deal yet. Are the terms public?
- arthurcolle 4y agoMy mother asked me a few days ago how to invest in ChatGPT. I explained that it's probably the easiest expressed with some long dated ITM calls on MSFT Anyone know if MSFT actually has equity in OpenAI or if its just a "mutual partnership" ?
- m348e912 4y agoBefore thinking about investing in AI, it might be worth watching the all in podcast from last week (not the most recent one) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQ544sWC8ZQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQ544sWC8ZQ I am not saying the hosts are right about everything but they made a point that the first to the market may not be the eventual winner and provided some examples of how revolutionary ideas such as a cell phone/smart phone were iterated several times before major leaders broke away. The same can be seen with search and other technologies.
- inconceivable 4y agoright, but was openai "first to market"? google and amazon have had AI offerings for a while now.
- tough 4y agoWas apple ever first to market anything?
- addisonl 4y agoIt’s this simple, something that a surprising number of intelligent people fail to grasp. Apple was rarely the first to it, they just did it well. Google and other giants had the technology but they never made a super powerful chatbot available to everyone with the ingredients they had on hand. Now they’re scrambling.
- senttoschool 4y agoThe iPhone was the first to market for many things including an all-screen phone, multi-touch, full-web browser experience on a mobile device.
- ccakes 4y agoPalm would like to talk to you
- fxtentacle 4y agoNo. It was the first good device with those features. But I skipped the first iPhone because at the time, my Palm appeared to be superior.
- endisneigh 4y agoBoth Amazon and Google did not have usable language models prior to ChatGPT. Certainly ML was used, but not in that particular application.
- fswd 4y agothis was reeeaaallly f good. Thanks
- NicoJuicy 4y agoIt's a delicate one. I would bet on Alphabet for the long term, the original inventors of the paper, together with DeepMind. But chatgpt like tech could have an effect on their advertising income. The question would be if it affects their advertising or if it actually adds a service to sell to their pool. If it adds a service to their pool, both Alphabet and Microsoft could be winners. But it takes a huge amount of profits/revenue for a service to have any affect on the stock price for both of them. Additionally, AWS and Meta won't stand by. We've all seen how much Meta is prepared to fund Zucks vision and that's transformers now. They even released one before ChatGPT. https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/11/18/1063487/meta-large-language-model-ai-only-survived-three-days-gpt-3-science/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/11/18/1063487/meta-lar... Additionally, besides the impact, it's possible that it's not going to be as profitable as one would expect ( eg. because of price pressure due to competition)
- jerrygenser 4y agoThere's been a brain drain from alphabet, why do you bet despite this?
- rvnx 4y agoMost of the people from the original Transformers left Google as far as I know, (including for OpenAI), so... NicoJuicy: Have you ever tried Bard, the "ChatGPT-Killer" (English-only btw) ?
- NicoJuicy 4y agoNo, I didn't. I know the results aren't that good yet. My guess was that they didn't apply RLHF much. There's going to be plenty of research coming in that area, I suppose.
- spaceman_2020 4y agoI can’t bet on Alphabet with the current leadership. You either need a visionary CEO or the original founders to have the courage to gut your entire revenue stream (ads) in pursuit of a new tech. Pichai is not that guy.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago> it's probably the easiest expressed with some long dated ITM calls on MSFT Just buy equity. No need to sidecar long vol in the middle of a resolving banking crisis. > if MSFT actually has equity in OpenAI or if its just a "mutual partnership" Yes, Microsoft are taking a significant stake in OpenAI. But it’s not equity, because OpenAI isn’t a corporation. (Partnership interests. Economically similar.)
- swyx 4y ago> No need to sidecar long vol in the middle of a resolving banking crisis. as a former options trader, yup excellently put. love that this kind of "sophistication" (its simple in the grand scheme of things, but it passes) is here on HN. +1. stop using options for leverage if dont have a view on vol. way cheaper ways to borrow money.
- user_named 4y agoWouldn't buying the MSFT stock be easier?
- bob1029 4y agoThis is what I do. Also helps that I like the rest of the business. For me, this is mostly a win-win arrangement - I believe strongly in GitHub/Visual Studio/.NET/Azure/etc too. If you dont believe in MSFT but want to invest in OpenAI, buying their stock is probably a terrible idea. You would be purchasing a gigantic liability (relative to your risk preferences) in hopes of gaining access to a miniscule component of the overall business.
- m348e912 4y agoLots of Azure credits Here's a little insight: https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/23/microsoft-invests-billions-more-dollars-in-openai-extends-partnership/ https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/23/microsoft-invests-billions...
- ftxbro 4y agoFrom https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35367194 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35367194 "I mean the conspiracy argument would be that the $10B isn't a normal investment. It's a special government project investment facilitated by OpenAI board member and former clandestine CIA operative and cybersecurity executive Will Hurd through his role on the board of trustees of In-Q-Tel the investment arm of the CIA. It's funneled through Microsoft instead of through Google in part because of Google's No-Military-AI pledge in 2018 demanded by its employees, after which Microsoft took over its military contracts including project Maven. The new special government project, the Sydney project, is the most urgent and ambitious since the project to develop nuclear weapons in the mid twentieth century. Of course I don't necessarily believe any of that but it can be fun to think about."
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago> $10B isn't a normal investment It’s a few hundred million of cash and billions of Azure credits. > I don't necessarily believe any of that but it can be fun to think about You’re quoting yourself disabusing yourself of an argument you’re quoting yourself making.
- ftxbro 4y ago[flagged]
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- ftxbro 4y agoOne interesting thing is that my homie https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=ta08131942 https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=ta08131942 made a throwaway account ten days ago, like 'throwaway 08/13/1942' which is the start date of the manhattan project and then he put only a single detailed comment https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35366484 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35366484 relating OpenAI to the government/intelligence/military
- SheinhardtWigCo 4y agogreen username = new account
- ftxbro 4y agoooh that makes sense i didn't know it
- sph 4y agoFirst you quote yourself mentioning this CIA conspiracy elsewhere in this thread, then mention this green account, your "homie", with the same conspiracy. I'm not saying you're right or wrong, just it is obvious you two are the same people, but I do not understand creating a throwaway account and then doxing yourself 10 days later. I guess you hoped the throwaway account felt more credible.
- ftxbro 4y ago> just it is obvious you two are the same people Well I'm not the same as them but I see how it looks that way.
- ocdtrekkie 4y agoNobody would've "just guessed" the meaning of that string of numbers in the username like you claim to, lol.
- 4y ago