3 ms·

Once you exhaust the dataset of all written language, the next step is multi-modal — images, audio, video. What will next-token prediction give us on such a dat

Once you exhaust the dataset of all written language, the next step is multi-modal — images, audio, video. What will next-token prediction give us on such a dataset? Better versions of what we have now — style transfer, summarization, captioning, translation, prompt-based generation, etc., but with synesthesia. There is still plenty of improvement ahead but I don’t think anything genuinely surprising will come from the current regime of feedforward models. What is missing is action — an interactive feedback loop between agent and environment. Progress in RL and robotics has been very slow by comparison and unless we see a breakthrough there, I would guess the GPT phase plateaus in the next 5-10 years.

UncleEntity 4y ago
> What will next-token prediction give us on such a dataset? Haven’t we pretty much figured out these things are doing more than just predicting the next token at this point? There’s probably a lot to be done with a “prediction machine”, birds aren’t all that smart but can catch bugs in midair.
- skybrian 4y ago
  People keep underestimating what next-token prediction can do, but they’re not wrong that it’s how LLM’s work. It’s actually a good question: what will next-token prediction be able to do on new datasets? The error is thinking you can answer it, even in broad terms.
skybrian 4y ago
I expect progress will be much less predictable. Some kinds of action look pretty easy; it depends on the domain. For example, I expect skill at writing some kinds of code to improve dramatically because running tests in a sandbox looks easy. It’s already being researched. [1] Extending that to device drivers might be a bit harder. Fuzzing is already mostly automated and smarter fuzzing could get pretty scary. [1] https://nanothoughts.substack.com/p/reflecting-on-reflexion https://nanothoughts.substack.com/p/reflecting-on-reflexion
- Salgat 4y ago
  Basically, if the knowledge exists online in a way that can be pieced together in a straight forward manner, GPT will figure it out, but for information that requires experimentation and creating new information to derive results, it won't be of much use. For example, GPT can't iteratively try different programming techniques to speed up a block of parallelizable code, it'll simply give you the best guess that it can find off google.
  - skybrian 4y ago
    It won't iterate on its own, but you can do it. You can ask it for a list of things to try, and they will be different alternatives. You can also tell it the result of an experiment and it will often figure out what to fix. If you follow the link I shared, some researchers automated asking GPT4 to write tests, running the tests in a sandbox, and feeding the results back in.
    - machiaweliczny 4y ago
      Why you assume it won't? With access to python interpreter I don't see any issue
spyder 4y ago
Yea, after all these LLMs are predicting one sequence of tokens from another sequence of tokens and the tokens could be anything, it just "happens" that text has the most knowledge and the easiest to input, then there are image, sound, video, but tokens could also be learned from world experience in RL: Transformers are Sample-Efficient World Models: https://github.com/eloialonso/iris#transformers-are-sample-efficient-world-models-iris https://github.com/eloialonso/iris#transformers-are-sample-e...

UncleEntity 4y ago

> What will next-token prediction give us on such a dataset? Haven’t we pretty much figured out these things are doing more than just predicting the next token at this point? There’s probably a lot to be done with a “prediction machine”, birds aren’t all that smart but can catch bugs in midair.

skybrian 4y ago
People keep underestimating what next-token prediction can do, but they’re not wrong that it’s how LLM’s work. It’s actually a good question: what will next-token prediction be able to do on new datasets? The error is thinking you can answer it, even in broad terms.

skybrian 4y ago

I expect progress will be much less predictable. Some kinds of action look pretty easy; it depends on the domain. For example, I expect skill at writing some kinds of code to improve dramatically because running tests in a sandbox looks easy. It’s already being researched. [1] Extending that to device drivers might be a bit harder. Fuzzing is already mostly automated and smarter fuzzing could get pretty scary. [1] https://nanothoughts.substack.com/p/reflecting-on-reflexion https://nanothoughts.substack.com/p/reflecting-on-reflexion

Salgat 4y ago
Basically, if the knowledge exists online in a way that can be pieced together in a straight forward manner, GPT will figure it out, but for information that requires experimentation and creating new information to derive results, it won't be of much use. For example, GPT can't iteratively try different programming techniques to speed up a block of parallelizable code, it'll simply give you the best guess that it can find off google.
- skybrian 4y ago
  It won't iterate on its own, but you can do it. You can ask it for a list of things to try, and they will be different alternatives. You can also tell it the result of an experiment and it will often figure out what to fix. If you follow the link I shared, some researchers automated asking GPT4 to write tests, running the tests in a sandbox, and feeding the results back in.
  - machiaweliczny 4y ago
    Why you assume it won't? With access to python interpreter I don't see any issue

spyder 4y ago

Yea, after all these LLMs are predicting one sequence of tokens from another sequence of tokens and the tokens could be anything, it just "happens" that text has the most knowledge and the easiest to input, then there are image, sound, video, but tokens could also be learned from world experience in RL: Transformers are Sample-Efficient World Models: https://github.com/eloialonso/iris#transformers-are-sample-efficient-world-models-iris https://github.com/eloialonso/iris#transformers-are-sample-e...