Exactly. Every discussion I see focuses almost exclusively on AI as it exists right now. Everyone is either dismissing the impact due to some minor shortcoming,

Exactly. Every discussion I see focuses almost exclusively on AI as it exists right now. Everyone is either dismissing the impact due to some minor shortcoming, or wildly overestimating the short-term impact. The one consistent thing among those who dismiss it and those who think it's going to change everything in the next six months is that they're both drastically underestimating the long-term impact. GPT is already behaving in ways that researchers did not anticipate.