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I believe the relevant assertion is > Based on my understanding of the approach behind ChatGPT, it is probably very close to a local maximum in terms of intell

I believe the relevant assertion is > Based on my understanding of the approach behind ChatGPT, it is probably very close to a local maximum in terms of intelligence To me that is an open question. OpenAI has not revealed a lot of the relevant stats behind GPT-4. I also haven't seen anything about their future LLM research (though I haven't looked very hard), but I think the above assertion remains to be seen.

guax 3y ago
It seems like people are focusing on training with more data and working the data. A human does not need to learn all the contents of the internet to learn skepticism and logic. A smart Ai should probably not either, that would point me to a different approach and those are not predictable. I have no doubt we can make gpt better and more useful. I do have some doubts we can make it trustworthy enough for most of its taunted potential.
- pmoriarty 3y ago
  "A human does not need to learn all the contents of the internet to learn skepticism and logic." Some humans never learn this, and those that do could take years or even decades of training. AI's are learning some things much faster, though since their "brains" are not like those of humans there's no reason to expect them to learn in the same way.
- codethief 3y ago
  > A human does not need to learn all the contents of the internet to learn skepticism and logic. No, but children spend years learning basic mechanics, how to navigate 3-dimensional space, what causality is, etc. Underneath these laws of nature you find… logic and mathematical relationships. So I don't think it's surprising that a model whose perception is restricted to text (and now single images) as the sole sensory input/output might need much more training and data to learn logical reasoning.
- whimsicalism 3y ago
  We have evolutionary encoded priors - that took literally billions of years to evolve.

guax 3y ago

It seems like people are focusing on training with more data and working the data. A human does not need to learn all the contents of the internet to learn skepticism and logic. A smart Ai should probably not either, that would point me to a different approach and those are not predictable. I have no doubt we can make gpt better and more useful. I do have some doubts we can make it trustworthy enough for most of its taunted potential.

pmoriarty 3y ago
"A human does not need to learn all the contents of the internet to learn skepticism and logic." Some humans never learn this, and those that do could take years or even decades of training. AI's are learning some things much faster, though since their "brains" are not like those of humans there's no reason to expect them to learn in the same way.
codethief 3y ago
> A human does not need to learn all the contents of the internet to learn skepticism and logic. No, but children spend years learning basic mechanics, how to navigate 3-dimensional space, what causality is, etc. Underneath these laws of nature you find… logic and mathematical relationships. So I don't think it's surprising that a model whose perception is restricted to text (and now single images) as the sole sensory input/output might need much more training and data to learn logical reasoning.
whimsicalism 3y ago
We have evolutionary encoded priors - that took literally billions of years to evolve.