What do y'all think of this equity valuation method for early startups? Startups have a 95% failure rate and an average exit of $243M. Therefore, equity could

What do y'all think of this equity valuation method for early startups? Startups have a 95% failure rate and an average exit of $243M. Therefore, equity could be considered a lottery ticket with an expected value = Equity% * (1-0.95) * $243M. That'd value 1% at around $122k.