5 ms·

Methane and CO2 are very different things. The former has a massively greater warming effect than the latter, and takes long enough to degrade in the atmosphere

Methane and CO2 are very different things. The former has a massively greater warming effect than the latter, and takes long enough to degrade in the atmosphere that it can significantly affect warming times. If you aren’t paying attention to the rising methane levels in our atmosphere (and possible evidence of a feedback loop) with serious trepidation, you’re a lucky person who probably sleeps well at night.

nh23423fefe 4y ago
> Serious people panic when I do. But you didn't address why you panic.
- cyrusatjam 4y ago
  wrong thread?
  - drak0n1c 4y ago
    Comment was edited.
lettergram 4y ago
I want a warmer atmosphere. All the UN data points to a warmer atmosphere equating to more food and higher quality of life. I concede some concern about potential feedback loops, but the reality is that earth was and still is in an ice age. Ice ages are not the norm on earth, I think it’s okay if we exit an ice age. Yes things will change, but it’ll be over decades to millennia. We’re working on carbon capture right now — 150 years after the start of the Industrial Revolution. By even the most imo insane estimates we are 50-70 years from even minor discomfort. I’m fairly confident we can fix the problem when it becomes a problem
- lm28469 4y ago
  > I want a warmer atmosphere. > All the UN data points to a warmer atmosphere equating to more food and higher quality of life. Globally and to a point, maybe. But that's not taking into account local effects and the millions (billion?) who'll be displaced and what comes with it Then you have ocean acidification, postivie and negative feedback that we won't be able to stop, &c. > I’m fairly confident we can fix the problem when it becomes a problem I’m fairly confident that the same UN data points, and basically the entire corpus of text about climate science, will show you that it's absolutely not how it works because the inertia is way too strong to only care about it when it's in front of you
  - tfourb 4y ago
    Also, it is already a problem for billions of people every year and we haven't found a fix except emitting less CO2.
- kbelder 4y ago
  I somewhat agree. A climate several degrees warmer than recent history seems like it would be beneficial; in the past, warmer periods coincided with a lush and rich biosphere. More energy is available to life. Like you, long-term, I'm more worried about the upcoming ice age than runaway global warming. We know how to fix global warming, and will in the next hundred years: Nuclear and solar. But... warming can still be very disruptive in the short term. Coastlines moving a few hundred feet might be disastrous for entire regions. Staple crops failing in one nation and blooming in another may cause refugees, famine, and war. Politics is local.
- matthewdgreen 4y ago
  Last summer we had heat waves and droughts on three continents simultaneously, plus massive unprecedented floods in Pakistan. It doesn't take much to destroy a year's worth of crops, and the IPCC modeling doesn't really come to grips with what we're seeing.
- Retric 4y ago
  That was actually part of early models of climate change, but we’ve already crossed the point where the negatives from increased CO2 outweigh the positives. The problem is there are just so many small negatives such as extremely warm weather negatively impacting plant growth. But also less talked about problems like the increase in outdoor CO2 requiring more building ventilation to avoid indoor CO2 levels from giving people headaches. That’s right, global warming actually makes meetings inside air conditioned buildings worse.
- ClumsyPilot 4y ago
  > All the UN data points to a warmer atmosphere equating to more food and higher quality of life All data point to countries warmer than Spain having significant drops in life expectancy. Human body is less healthy in a tropical climate than it is in continental climate. A numbwr of cities will exceed 36 degrees C Wet Bulb Temperature in the summmer. Do you understand what that means? Over heating to death. Sweating does not work any more. Everyone living in those areas will become refugees. We are also losing all snowpack. No snowpack means droughts in summer and floods in winter. Lastly, we expect climate change to cause food shortages. It will not bw just poor countries that suffer. Nations will respond by banning food exports. Britain depends on imported food, it has not been self-sufficient for 100 years We have no crops that handle high heat well. We neber domesticated perrenial plants properly, they give much lower yields. Perrenial wheatgrass has half the yoeld of wheat. Potato planta shut down in high heat even if you provide them with water. You can turn the entire field i to soup, at 40 degrees potatoss don't grow. It is sad that most people do not comprehens the huge cost we will have to deal with this problem.
- unaindz 4y ago
  I live in northern Spain and I notice the summers and the winters getting hotter. This winter I didn't turn on the heat once and it was uncomfortable cold inside the house for like three days tops. It's normally uncomfortable at least for one or two months. On december it's freezing outside at night, this december we had flowers blossoming. What an issue right? Energy and money savings on all that gas and it's more comfortable outside. Well we beat the last hot temperature record last summer with 45⁰C, that's "kills your grandpa temperature" or 113F if you prefer. I'm scared of this summer, I don't have AC.
Retric 4y ago
That’s very misleading because Methane is extremely front loaded in its effects. Year 0 is very bad year 50 is only equal to the amount of carbon in that methane. As rice farming is very consistent year to year, and rice removes carbon as it grows the net effect on future warming is ~zero because all the previous years have already been baked in to current conditions. The great news is reducing Methane from existing sources is one of the fastest ways to reverse climate change after we reach net zero.
- NotYourLawyer 4y ago
  That math isn’t mathing. With the rice field active, there’s more methane in the atmosphere every year, compared to the world where the rice field doesn’t exist.
  - Retric 4y ago
    It’s climate change. If global methane from rice fields is identical in 2000, 2023, and 2050 … it has zero impact on climate change. Rice cultivation isn’t completely static, so the it’s changes in rice cultivation that result in climate change.
    - Timon3 4y ago
      Rice cultivation hasn't been a factor in climate for all time, only relatively recently. The increase in methane can have an accumulating warming effect. Think about it like this - the amount of rice fields is the derivative of climate change. If you increase the amount of rice fields once and don't decrease it, climate change will slowly but surely rise, even if rice fields don't increase.
      - xyzzyz 4y ago
        No, that’s not the case, because the methane doesn’t accumulate. If you increase the amount of rice under cultivation, the methane content in atmosphere will stabilize after around 20 years, and after that there will be no more climate change resulting from the rice fields.

nh23423fefe 4y ago

> Serious people panic when I do. But you didn't address why you panic.

cyrusatjam 4y ago
wrong thread?
- drak0n1c 4y ago
  Comment was edited.

lettergram 4y ago

I want a warmer atmosphere. All the UN data points to a warmer atmosphere equating to more food and higher quality of life. I concede some concern about potential feedback loops, but the reality is that earth was and still is in an ice age. Ice ages are not the norm on earth, I think it’s okay if we exit an ice age. Yes things will change, but it’ll be over decades to millennia. We’re working on carbon capture right now — 150 years after the start of the Industrial Revolution. By even the most imo insane estimates we are 50-70 years from even minor discomfort. I’m fairly confident we can fix the problem when it becomes a problem

lm28469 4y ago
> I want a warmer atmosphere. > All the UN data points to a warmer atmosphere equating to more food and higher quality of life. Globally and to a point, maybe. But that's not taking into account local effects and the millions (billion?) who'll be displaced and what comes with it Then you have ocean acidification, postivie and negative feedback that we won't be able to stop, &c. > I’m fairly confident we can fix the problem when it becomes a problem I’m fairly confident that the same UN data points, and basically the entire corpus of text about climate science, will show you that it's absolutely not how it works because the inertia is way too strong to only care about it when it's in front of you
- tfourb 4y ago
  Also, it is already a problem for billions of people every year and we haven't found a fix except emitting less CO2.
kbelder 4y ago
I somewhat agree. A climate several degrees warmer than recent history seems like it would be beneficial; in the past, warmer periods coincided with a lush and rich biosphere. More energy is available to life. Like you, long-term, I'm more worried about the upcoming ice age than runaway global warming. We know how to fix global warming, and will in the next hundred years: Nuclear and solar. But... warming can still be very disruptive in the short term. Coastlines moving a few hundred feet might be disastrous for entire regions. Staple crops failing in one nation and blooming in another may cause refugees, famine, and war. Politics is local.
matthewdgreen 4y ago
Last summer we had heat waves and droughts on three continents simultaneously, plus massive unprecedented floods in Pakistan. It doesn't take much to destroy a year's worth of crops, and the IPCC modeling doesn't really come to grips with what we're seeing.
Retric 4y ago
That was actually part of early models of climate change, but we’ve already crossed the point where the negatives from increased CO2 outweigh the positives. The problem is there are just so many small negatives such as extremely warm weather negatively impacting plant growth. But also less talked about problems like the increase in outdoor CO2 requiring more building ventilation to avoid indoor CO2 levels from giving people headaches. That’s right, global warming actually makes meetings inside air conditioned buildings worse.
ClumsyPilot 4y ago
> All the UN data points to a warmer atmosphere equating to more food and higher quality of life All data point to countries warmer than Spain having significant drops in life expectancy. Human body is less healthy in a tropical climate than it is in continental climate. A numbwr of cities will exceed 36 degrees C Wet Bulb Temperature in the summmer. Do you understand what that means? Over heating to death. Sweating does not work any more. Everyone living in those areas will become refugees. We are also losing all snowpack. No snowpack means droughts in summer and floods in winter. Lastly, we expect climate change to cause food shortages. It will not bw just poor countries that suffer. Nations will respond by banning food exports. Britain depends on imported food, it has not been self-sufficient for 100 years We have no crops that handle high heat well. We neber domesticated perrenial plants properly, they give much lower yields. Perrenial wheatgrass has half the yoeld of wheat. Potato planta shut down in high heat even if you provide them with water. You can turn the entire field i to soup, at 40 degrees potatoss don't grow. It is sad that most people do not comprehens the huge cost we will have to deal with this problem.
unaindz 4y ago
I live in northern Spain and I notice the summers and the winters getting hotter. This winter I didn't turn on the heat once and it was uncomfortable cold inside the house for like three days tops. It's normally uncomfortable at least for one or two months. On december it's freezing outside at night, this december we had flowers blossoming. What an issue right? Energy and money savings on all that gas and it's more comfortable outside. Well we beat the last hot temperature record last summer with 45⁰C, that's "kills your grandpa temperature" or 113F if you prefer. I'm scared of this summer, I don't have AC.

Retric 4y ago

That’s very misleading because Methane is extremely front loaded in its effects. Year 0 is very bad year 50 is only equal to the amount of carbon in that methane. As rice farming is very consistent year to year, and rice removes carbon as it grows the net effect on future warming is ~zero because all the previous years have already been baked in to current conditions. The great news is reducing Methane from existing sources is one of the fastest ways to reverse climate change after we reach net zero.

NotYourLawyer 4y ago
That math isn’t mathing. With the rice field active, there’s more methane in the atmosphere every year, compared to the world where the rice field doesn’t exist.
- Retric 4y ago
  It’s climate change. If global methane from rice fields is identical in 2000, 2023, and 2050 … it has zero impact on climate change. Rice cultivation isn’t completely static, so the it’s changes in rice cultivation that result in climate change.
  - Timon3 4y ago
    Rice cultivation hasn't been a factor in climate for all time, only relatively recently. The increase in methane can have an accumulating warming effect. Think about it like this - the amount of rice fields is the derivative of climate change. If you increase the amount of rice fields once and don't decrease it, climate change will slowly but surely rise, even if rice fields don't increase.
    - xyzzyz 4y ago
      No, that’s not the case, because the methane doesn’t accumulate. If you increase the amount of rice under cultivation, the methane content in atmosphere will stabilize after around 20 years, and after that there will be no more climate change resulting from the rice fields.