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Apple sold 1.39M iPhones in 2007 and 11.63M in 2008. They sold 9.6M of Watch in the first year. Both products were easily graspable by mere mortals even without

Apple sold 1.39M iPhones in 2007 and 11.63M in 2008. They sold 9.6M of Watch in the first year. Both products were easily graspable by mere mortals even without hands-on experience. “Magic eyewear” is a hard sell without people trying it out first, but when you do, the wow factor hits you immediatelly. But it can’t be about novelty — it must support legacy stuff first and foremost. This is where Quest failed so far and is perceived as a toy for games. 1M units sold in first year would be still a lot IMO, but early adopters would prepare ground for second gen and we all know second gen is where masses onboard. Miniturization matter. FOV matter. PPD too. Standalone is better than tethered. Performance is a killer. All these things matter. If I swap your iPhone 14 for iPhone 1, would you notice? It’s still an iPhone, right? And difference between Sutherlands Sword of Damocles and Varjo XR3 is abysmal on many axes.

Maursault 4y ago
> Apple sold 1.39M iPhones in 2007 and 11.63M in 2008. But Apple isn't the same company it was in 2007 and 2008. In 2007, Apple had something like 6% of desktop computer marketshare. Within four years of the release of iPhone, it had over a quarter of the smartphone market, and Apple overtook Exxon as the worlds most valuable company. Homepod was released in 2018 and sold somewhere between 1-3M units. This was a failure and the product was cancelled by 2021, even though it outperformed iPhone in 2007. Apple really needs to sell a metric shitton of AR/VR headsets. No matter how amazing it is, the market simply isn't there. Maybe Apple is big enough now to massively expand that tiny market, but this is something they've never before attempted. A lot is riding on this product as far as Tim Cook is concerned. I'm worried, and I'm not even a shareholder. If Cook isn't mentally ill, he must also be worried. I suppose he could defend himself by not being Mark Zuckerberg and burning through $15B with no return. I think Apple will at least break even with this, I just don't see how it could possibly be the success that it needs to be.

Maursault 4y ago

> Apple sold 1.39M iPhones in 2007 and 11.63M in 2008. But Apple isn't the same company it was in 2007 and 2008. In 2007, Apple had something like 6% of desktop computer marketshare. Within four years of the release of iPhone, it had over a quarter of the smartphone market, and Apple overtook Exxon as the worlds most valuable company. Homepod was released in 2018 and sold somewhere between 1-3M units. This was a failure and the product was cancelled by 2021, even though it outperformed iPhone in 2007. Apple really needs to sell a metric shitton of AR/VR headsets. No matter how amazing it is, the market simply isn't there. Maybe Apple is big enough now to massively expand that tiny market, but this is something they've never before attempted. A lot is riding on this product as far as Tim Cook is concerned. I'm worried, and I'm not even a shareholder. If Cook isn't mentally ill, he must also be worried. I suppose he could defend himself by not being Mark Zuckerberg and burning through $15B with no return. I think Apple will at least break even with this, I just don't see how it could possibly be the success that it needs to be.