IIRC we (Germany) should be getting about heat pump installations of about 1% of the heater installation base in Germany this year [0]. Add to that the number o

IIRC we (Germany) should be getting about heat pump installations of about 1% of the heater installation base in Germany this year [0]. Add to that the number of replacement units [1] and the switch in grid scale units (there are a number of waste heat to Fernwärme projects) I would expect a reduction of 5-10% in the reliance on gas compared to 2022. It’s not going to change the game completely, but it makes the situation much simpler. Add to that the experience we gained this year, and I would be extremely surprised if we have to resort to “outbid everyone in August and September on the worldwide LNG market”, which is basically what we did last year (to the point of having ships idling of our coast because all storage capacity was full..). I’m not saying that we don’t need to buy gas on the international markets, just that next winter will be easier to manage than this one. (And this one really wasn’t that hard either.) Which should be a good thing for the rest of the world market too [0] well really between Nov 22 and Oct23, but that’s relevant for the difference in gas consumption in the next heating period [1] though it’s entirely anecdotal, but a number of people have replaced their old gas unit this year already. Don’t think that’s overly smart as an idea. But replacing a 30 year old unit with a new one does decrease fuel consumption somewhat