4 ms·

I get your point. In fact, I think my argument aligns perfectly with the capacity factor. Have a look at Figure 12 of the Master Plan. The zoomed-in portion

I get your point. In fact, I think my argument aligns perfectly with the capacity factor. Have a look at Figure 12 of the Master Plan. The zoomed-in portion of the capacity factor very much tells a story that aligns with my observation. If you eliminated the solar curve completely and added a bit more wind, you'd have all the energy you need. And, relatively speaking, it would be very consistent, which is one of the reasons for which I think wind could be a superior choice. Remember, we can move power thousands of miles. Wind does not have to exist near to where the power will be consumed. I actually took the time to measure the areas under those two curves. The units don't matter (it was square cm, measured using Solidworks): Solar: 3212 Wind: 6570 Total: 9782 This is a measurement proportional to the energy produced during those days. If we completely eliminate solar and decide to produce the same amount of energy using wind, we would have to overbuild wind by 50%. That, I think, is a fantastic finding. Why? Because wind can deliver far greater availability with just 3 hours of storage. Solar requires well over 12 hours of storage (and overbuild) to deliver anything approximating what wind can do with less land, less batteries. Solar requires over 5x more land, 30% more in operating and maintenance cost (per installed MW) and 20x greater investment in factories. Put a different way: Even if you overbuilt solar by 10x, you would still, at best, have about 50% darkness (at night). Solar requires 100% backup at least half the time. Wind does not work that way, particularly if located in areas optimized for it. That's why I am asking myself this question. Solar at home, schools and businesses, sure, no problem. I have it. So should everyone else for whom it makes sense. Grid scale? I am not so sure. I am getting the sense wind is a far, far better option for grid scale. Once again, we should not discount the global supply chain realities. I would prefer if the energy supply chain of the future did not create a dependency on China for all maintenance from here to eternity. I think that's what we all walk into if we go solar for grid-scale energy. I have a feeling (not confirmed other than superficially) that wind provides the opportunity to globalize the supply chain and create a far more diverse distribution of wealth around the world as it pertains to building, supporting and maintaining wind power installations. That, to me, is very important. I don't think anyone is talking about this reality. I don't understand why.

robomartin 4y ago
Just thought of something. Maybe the right (or the better) solution is grid scale wind with minimal storage and residential/commercial solar with some local storage. No grid-scale solar. Why am I thinking this might be a better idea? Well, for one thing, this, for the most part, virtually eliminates a huge portion of the materials requirements for solar installations. No concrete, except for ground mount systems like mine. From a deployment perspective, likely far less damaging to the environment all around. Going back to one of my calculations, full solar would require the area of 12 Hawaii's, while wind only 1 Hawaii. Storage at home would also have to be nominal, just to smooth things out. Just one to three hours of storage would likely deal with most short term (24 hours) weather events nicely. Stuff like this (from my own system, due to rain and clouds): https://i.imgur.com/breTHQd.png https://i.imgur.com/breTHQd.png Wind, combined with grid-scale storage, then become the steady and reliable backup power source. The power can come from hundreds, if not thousands of miles away. Grid-scale storage can be more localized or distributed and load-sharing across regions. The point is to minimize the cost, material intensity, land damage and ecological impact of shifting to cleaner sources of power. The next step would be to either have very generous tax credits for solar installation or fully subsidize it in some form. Whatever we were going to do for grid scale solar, we do to pay for residential scale solar. One of the things that is very obvious just walking around my neighborhood is that lots of people feel no need whatsoever for solar. In a lot of cases it's retired couples of people who have very low energy footprints. Another situation is rental property. None of these cases inspire anyone to spend money on solar. That's lots of roofs, millions, tens of millions, not being utilized to contribute clean power to the grid. This is where I see a better program in support of solar could do very well. In other words, what do we have to do to make it worth everyone's while to install solar on their roofs? I think that's where I am with this today. Rooftop solar, installed as widely as possible. Perhaps with a small amount of local storage. Then plan on grid-scale wind with adequate storage for bulk reliable backup power 24/7/365. No grid solar.
- guerby 4y ago
  Yes transmission is important. Also it's unlikely the optimum will be "only technology X" wind and solar and hydro are not correlated 100% so having all will help. For PV on homes just look at Australia: https://cleantechnica.com/2023/02/28/nearly-1-in-3-homes-in-australia-covered-in-solar-panels/ https://cleantechnica.com/2023/02/28/nearly-1-in-3-homes-in-... In my coutnry solar is now mandated for parking lots: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/12/12/france-introduces-requirement-for-pv-in-parking-lots/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/12/12/france-introduces-req... Home and parking take zero additional land, no transmission needed. In my town the biggest supermarket is currently covering its parking lot with solar, my estimate is that it will be 2 MW. In a nearby city: https://goo.gl/maps/fLb89uvZLe1iPvgV9 https://goo.gl/maps/fLb89uvZLe1iPvgV9 https://www.google.fr/maps/@43.8925214,1.8808368,268m/data=!3m1!1e3 https://www.google.fr/maps/@43.8925214,1.8808368,268m/data=!...

robomartin 4y ago

Just thought of something. Maybe the right (or the better) solution is grid scale wind with minimal storage and residential/commercial solar with some local storage. No grid-scale solar. Why am I thinking this might be a better idea? Well, for one thing, this, for the most part, virtually eliminates a huge portion of the materials requirements for solar installations. No concrete, except for ground mount systems like mine. From a deployment perspective, likely far less damaging to the environment all around. Going back to one of my calculations, full solar would require the area of 12 Hawaii's, while wind only 1 Hawaii. Storage at home would also have to be nominal, just to smooth things out. Just one to three hours of storage would likely deal with most short term (24 hours) weather events nicely. Stuff like this (from my own system, due to rain and clouds): https://i.imgur.com/breTHQd.png https://i.imgur.com/breTHQd.png Wind, combined with grid-scale storage, then become the steady and reliable backup power source. The power can come from hundreds, if not thousands of miles away. Grid-scale storage can be more localized or distributed and load-sharing across regions. The point is to minimize the cost, material intensity, land damage and ecological impact of shifting to cleaner sources of power. The next step would be to either have very generous tax credits for solar installation or fully subsidize it in some form. Whatever we were going to do for grid scale solar, we do to pay for residential scale solar. One of the things that is very obvious just walking around my neighborhood is that lots of people feel no need whatsoever for solar. In a lot of cases it's retired couples of people who have very low energy footprints. Another situation is rental property. None of these cases inspire anyone to spend money on solar. That's lots of roofs, millions, tens of millions, not being utilized to contribute clean power to the grid. This is where I see a better program in support of solar could do very well. In other words, what do we have to do to make it worth everyone's while to install solar on their roofs? I think that's where I am with this today. Rooftop solar, installed as widely as possible. Perhaps with a small amount of local storage. Then plan on grid-scale wind with adequate storage for bulk reliable backup power 24/7/365. No grid solar.

guerby 4y ago
Yes transmission is important. Also it's unlikely the optimum will be "only technology X" wind and solar and hydro are not correlated 100% so having all will help. For PV on homes just look at Australia: https://cleantechnica.com/2023/02/28/nearly-1-in-3-homes-in-australia-covered-in-solar-panels/ https://cleantechnica.com/2023/02/28/nearly-1-in-3-homes-in-... In my coutnry solar is now mandated for parking lots: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/12/12/france-introduces-requirement-for-pv-in-parking-lots/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/12/12/france-introduces-req... Home and parking take zero additional land, no transmission needed. In my town the biggest supermarket is currently covering its parking lot with solar, my estimate is that it will be 2 MW. In a nearby city: https://goo.gl/maps/fLb89uvZLe1iPvgV9 https://goo.gl/maps/fLb89uvZLe1iPvgV9 https://www.google.fr/maps/@43.8925214,1.8808368,268m/data=!3m1!1e3 https://www.google.fr/maps/@43.8925214,1.8808368,268m/data=!...