4 ms·

> Apple is good at making consumers want something they didn't know they needed. No one needs VR, and no one ever will. So you think you don’t need VR and now

> Apple is good at making consumers want something they didn't know they needed. No one needs VR, and no one ever will. So you think you don’t need VR and now it’s up to Apple to show you that you are wrong. The modern VR that was jump started by HTC Vive (which got demo at WWDC) is really impressive. Quest 2 is a success — 20 million units sold. Even with terrible UX and limited use cases.

Maursault 4y ago
> The modern VR that was jump started by HTC Vive The modern VR? So you're drawing a clear line with HTC VIVE as modern and everything before was... what? VR is VR. HTC merely reproduced what came before with slightly better resolution. There's no such thing as "modern" here when the difference between the first HMD in 1968[1] and whatever Apple's releasing is merely miniaturization of components. > is really impressive. Quest 2 is a success — 20 million units sold. Even with terrible UX and limited use cases. Quest 2 was released two and a half years ago, so they've sold 8M a year. Apple sells about 200M iPhones and 40M Apple Watches every year. If Apple double's Quest 2 sales performance with their VR/AR headset, it would not be considered a success and would be cancelled, and it would probably force Cook into retirement. It really doesn't matter how "good" it is when the market is puny. Apple needs to sell this thing to half of all Americans in five years or less somehow, and keep selling it to them. That would be success. [1] https://virtualspeech.com/blog/history-of-vr https://virtualspeech.com/blog/history-of-vr
- mlajtos 4y ago
  Apple sold 1.39M iPhones in 2007 and 11.63M in 2008. They sold 9.6M of Watch in the first year. Both products were easily graspable by mere mortals even without hands-on experience. “Magic eyewear” is a hard sell without people trying it out first, but when you do, the wow factor hits you immediatelly. But it can’t be about novelty — it must support legacy stuff first and foremost. This is where Quest failed so far and is perceived as a toy for games. 1M units sold in first year would be still a lot IMO, but early adopters would prepare ground for second gen and we all know second gen is where masses onboard. Miniturization matter. FOV matter. PPD too. Standalone is better than tethered. Performance is a killer. All these things matter. If I swap your iPhone 14 for iPhone 1, would you notice? It’s still an iPhone, right? And difference between Sutherlands Sword of Damocles and Varjo XR3 is abysmal on many axes.
  - Maursault 4y ago
    > Apple sold 1.39M iPhones in 2007 and 11.63M in 2008. But Apple isn't the same company it was in 2007 and 2008. In 2007, Apple had something like 6% of desktop computer marketshare. Within four years of the release of iPhone, it had over a quarter of the smartphone market, and Apple overtook Exxon as the worlds most valuable company. Homepod was released in 2018 and sold somewhere between 1-3M units. This was a failure and the product was cancelled by 2021, even though it outperformed iPhone in 2007. Apple really needs to sell a metric shitton of AR/VR headsets. No matter how amazing it is, the market simply isn't there. Maybe Apple is big enough now to massively expand that tiny market, but this is something they've never before attempted. A lot is riding on this product as far as Tim Cook is concerned. I'm worried, and I'm not even a shareholder. If Cook isn't mentally ill, he must also be worried. I suppose he could defend himself by not being Mark Zuckerberg and burning through $15B with no return. I think Apple will at least break even with this, I just don't see how it could possibly be the success that it needs to be.

Maursault 4y ago

> The modern VR that was jump started by HTC Vive The modern VR? So you're drawing a clear line with HTC VIVE as modern and everything before was... what? VR is VR. HTC merely reproduced what came before with slightly better resolution. There's no such thing as "modern" here when the difference between the first HMD in 1968[1] and whatever Apple's releasing is merely miniaturization of components. > is really impressive. Quest 2 is a success — 20 million units sold. Even with terrible UX and limited use cases. Quest 2 was released two and a half years ago, so they've sold 8M a year. Apple sells about 200M iPhones and 40M Apple Watches every year. If Apple double's Quest 2 sales performance with their VR/AR headset, it would not be considered a success and would be cancelled, and it would probably force Cook into retirement. It really doesn't matter how "good" it is when the market is puny. Apple needs to sell this thing to half of all Americans in five years or less somehow, and keep selling it to them. That would be success. [1] https://virtualspeech.com/blog/history-of-vr https://virtualspeech.com/blog/history-of-vr

mlajtos 4y ago
Apple sold 1.39M iPhones in 2007 and 11.63M in 2008. They sold 9.6M of Watch in the first year. Both products were easily graspable by mere mortals even without hands-on experience. “Magic eyewear” is a hard sell without people trying it out first, but when you do, the wow factor hits you immediatelly. But it can’t be about novelty — it must support legacy stuff first and foremost. This is where Quest failed so far and is perceived as a toy for games. 1M units sold in first year would be still a lot IMO, but early adopters would prepare ground for second gen and we all know second gen is where masses onboard. Miniturization matter. FOV matter. PPD too. Standalone is better than tethered. Performance is a killer. All these things matter. If I swap your iPhone 14 for iPhone 1, would you notice? It’s still an iPhone, right? And difference between Sutherlands Sword of Damocles and Varjo XR3 is abysmal on many axes.
- Maursault 4y ago
  > Apple sold 1.39M iPhones in 2007 and 11.63M in 2008. But Apple isn't the same company it was in 2007 and 2008. In 2007, Apple had something like 6% of desktop computer marketshare. Within four years of the release of iPhone, it had over a quarter of the smartphone market, and Apple overtook Exxon as the worlds most valuable company. Homepod was released in 2018 and sold somewhere between 1-3M units. This was a failure and the product was cancelled by 2021, even though it outperformed iPhone in 2007. Apple really needs to sell a metric shitton of AR/VR headsets. No matter how amazing it is, the market simply isn't there. Maybe Apple is big enough now to massively expand that tiny market, but this is something they've never before attempted. A lot is riding on this product as far as Tim Cook is concerned. I'm worried, and I'm not even a shareholder. If Cook isn't mentally ill, he must also be worried. I suppose he could defend himself by not being Mark Zuckerberg and burning through $15B with no return. I think Apple will at least break even with this, I just don't see how it could possibly be the success that it needs to be.