The uncomfortable truth is that software development is a series of decisions made day after day, and many people simply cannot reliably make one good decision

The uncomfortable truth is that software development is a series of decisions made day after day, and many people simply cannot reliably make one good decision after another. You see this in poker and chess too, there are many people who will never be good at those games (like me), and there are many people who will never be good at software. Demand for good developers outstrips supply and then you have the whole measurement problem on top of it. At least with poker and chess we know who is good at it, and who is not.