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What's your view on FCEV long haul trucks? Do you see BEV becoming the dominant truck technology? If FCEV trucks were to take off as a technology and get to a

by ephbit 4y ago

What's your view on FCEV long haul trucks? Do you see BEV becoming the dominant truck technology? If FCEV trucks were to take off as a technology and get to a share of say 30 % of all trucks in some region, then I'd speculate that the FCEV tech in itself would ultimately displace BEV not only in the truck but also partially in the car sector.

somewhat_drunk 4y ago
Long-haul trucking is the one possible on-road application for fuel cell tech. But with the rate at which battery tech is advancing, and the massive head start that existing recharging infrastructure (the grid already exists) has over hydrogen infrastructure (nothing exists), I would be surprised if, in 20 years, a significant percentage of long-haul trucks use fuel cells. https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/05/eternally-five-years-away-no-batteries-are-improving-under-your-nose/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/05/eternally-five-years...
- _hypx 4y ago
  Fuel cells are battery tech. Again, where are you getting your info? It's pure bullshit and utterly detached from reality.
- ephbit 4y ago
  One thing that makes me speculate that fuel cells will play an important role in the future is: the future electrical grids based on, say > 85 % renewables, will be a challenge to keep balanced 24/7. In order to deliver enough electricity most of the time, without needing huge amounts of storage (which are tiny right now), renewables will have to be massively over built. I assume there'll be times when there's 5x or more the electricity available compared to actual consumption. Let the sun shine and the wind blow in summer and there'll be huge amounts of electricity which cannot be stored or consumed by BEV or some other grid connected battery because they're not enough. Industrial processes won't easily consume sudden surges in available electricity either. Take the UK grid with its average of ~ 31 GW. Let's say they triple their wind power capacity which is currently at ~ 18 GW and double their pv capacity which is currently at ~ 3 GW. That'd be 60 GW so roughly twice the electricity that's consumed on average. We're in summer, heat pumps don't consume .. so 30 GW excess electricity over say 3 windy days adds up to ~ 2 TWh. That's the capacity of 26.7 million Tesla Model 3 (long range) with a 75 kWh battery each. And they'd all need to be charged from 0 to 100 %. Batteries won't suffice, I think. So what'll be done? Electrolysis, I think -> H2, ammonia, methane, .. So there'll be significant amounts of these being produced and stored. Ammonia might well become the energy carrier of the future, being shipped around the world with large tankers to transport energy from where it's produced to places where it's used. If that were to become true, wouldn't the fuel cell be the fitting technology for heavy duty and/or long range vehicles? And once there'd be infrastructure for trucks and heavy vehicles, roughly the same ifrastructure could be used for FCEV cars.
  - somewhat_drunk 3y ago
    Hydrogen will be produced when electricity exceeds supply, but it will be used to decarbonize existing H2 demand, which is massive. As for smoothing out the electricity supply, EVs themselves are likely to play a large role, as will home batteries. The grid of the future will be much more distributed than what we have today. Tesla recently released a report which outlines where we are, where we need to be, and what is required to get there. It's succinct yet comprehensive, and well worth a read. https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/Tesla-Master-Plan-Part-3.pdf https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/Tesla-Master-Plan-Part-3.pdf

by ephbit 4y ago

somewhat_drunk 4y ago

Long-haul trucking is the one possible on-road application for fuel cell tech. But with the rate at which battery tech is advancing, and the massive head start that existing recharging infrastructure (the grid already exists) has over hydrogen infrastructure (nothing exists), I would be surprised if, in 20 years, a significant percentage of long-haul trucks use fuel cells. https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/05/eternally-five-years-away-no-batteries-are-improving-under-your-nose/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/05/eternally-five-years...

_hypx 4y ago
Fuel cells are battery tech. Again, where are you getting your info? It's pure bullshit and utterly detached from reality.
ephbit 4y ago
One thing that makes me speculate that fuel cells will play an important role in the future is: the future electrical grids based on, say > 85 % renewables, will be a challenge to keep balanced 24/7. In order to deliver enough electricity most of the time, without needing huge amounts of storage (which are tiny right now), renewables will have to be massively over built. I assume there'll be times when there's 5x or more the electricity available compared to actual consumption. Let the sun shine and the wind blow in summer and there'll be huge amounts of electricity which cannot be stored or consumed by BEV or some other grid connected battery because they're not enough. Industrial processes won't easily consume sudden surges in available electricity either. Take the UK grid with its average of ~ 31 GW. Let's say they triple their wind power capacity which is currently at ~ 18 GW and double their pv capacity which is currently at ~ 3 GW. That'd be 60 GW so roughly twice the electricity that's consumed on average. We're in summer, heat pumps don't consume .. so 30 GW excess electricity over say 3 windy days adds up to ~ 2 TWh. That's the capacity of 26.7 million Tesla Model 3 (long range) with a 75 kWh battery each. And they'd all need to be charged from 0 to 100 %. Batteries won't suffice, I think. So what'll be done? Electrolysis, I think -> H2, ammonia, methane, .. So there'll be significant amounts of these being produced and stored. Ammonia might well become the energy carrier of the future, being shipped around the world with large tankers to transport energy from where it's produced to places where it's used. If that were to become true, wouldn't the fuel cell be the fitting technology for heavy duty and/or long range vehicles? And once there'd be infrastructure for trucks and heavy vehicles, roughly the same ifrastructure could be used for FCEV cars.
- somewhat_drunk 3y ago
  Hydrogen will be produced when electricity exceeds supply, but it will be used to decarbonize existing H2 demand, which is massive. As for smoothing out the electricity supply, EVs themselves are likely to play a large role, as will home batteries. The grid of the future will be much more distributed than what we have today. Tesla recently released a report which outlines where we are, where we need to be, and what is required to get there. It's succinct yet comprehensive, and well worth a read. https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/Tesla-Master-Plan-Part-3.pdf https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/Tesla-Master-Plan-Part-3.pdf