60% of new generation capacity in the US was renewable last year, not for environmental reasons, but because it's the cheapest option. The reason this will cont

60% of new generation capacity in the US was renewable last year, not for environmental reasons, but because it's the cheapest option. The reason this will continue is because renewables rely on highly scalable technologies that are nowhere close to optimized. EVs benefit from cost scaling too. In Norway >80% of new cars sold are EVs 5 years ago it was -10%. Last year 20% of the Chinese market was EVs. As costs scale (Tesla has a 25k$ car in development) the same process will happen faster than you think across most markets. Equilibrium will be established when renewable costs stop declining, this is likely to be after battery costs decline another -70% and solar declines -75%. At that equilibrium price oil will be relegated to use in plastics, lubricants, and other industrial/durable goods applications. If those cost declines are realized oil will not compete on costs with renewables and you literally will not be able to give away an old ICE car.