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I do not know what mastering AI looks like, revolutionary technologies like these can't be predicted that far into the future. But it definitely does not look l

I do not know what mastering AI looks like, revolutionary technologies like these can't be predicted that far into the future. But it definitely does not look like 'banning AI'. The advantage of the knight, over the legionnaire. Was that one knight could crush 20 legionnaires (with support from peasants), yet supporting one knight costed far far less than 20 legionnaires. That's a military productivity advantage. The expertise and training of the legions were nothing in front of the full might of the warhorse. Legions were 'trained', but its an on-the-job training, rather than something you aim for since 5 years old. Legions are recruited from civilians, knights usually inherited. All these social changes, because of the horse. The printing press and the gun combined, cause the inverse effect. Bureaucracies became radically more efficient with cheap printed paper, and guns meant that a soldier trained for one year, could fight against knights trained for decades. Which lead to centralized empires, decline of the knights, and eventually the mass civilian movements and wars (French revolution, democracies, nazism and communism etc) How AI's effects on society will turn out, no one knows, not even Sam Altman knows. But better to start using it and understanding it, rather than hoping it'll be something you can close your eyes and it'll go away.

majormajor 4y ago
Thanks for expanding on the horse stuff! I also don't know what AI's effects will be, but ... that's why I'm not convinced it will be a "horse" vs a "printing press" vs an "internet" vs a "word processor/photoshop". From my usage of GPT4 so far, that particular tool is most like "word processor/power tool," but I certainly wouldn't confidently claim that future developments wouldn't be more transformative. But I'm also not convinced they will be.
- pixl97 4y ago
  If we get a 'general AI' any time soon, I do not see how it could not be transformative. Already LLMs seem really damned good at intent modeling and summarization. That alone is going to have huge ripples in society as we have systems that attempt to classify based on heuristics everywhere, and many of them break easily. It gets a little more worrisome when it comes human monitoring systems because now an AI system can take your audio/visual/textual data and easily (as compared to the past) figure out what your beliefs are. When we reach general intelligence, that is human level reasoning, the person that can buy the most processors and connect to the most data has a significant advantage over any individual without said computing power.

majormajor 4y ago

Thanks for expanding on the horse stuff! I also don't know what AI's effects will be, but ... that's why I'm not convinced it will be a "horse" vs a "printing press" vs an "internet" vs a "word processor/photoshop". From my usage of GPT4 so far, that particular tool is most like "word processor/power tool," but I certainly wouldn't confidently claim that future developments wouldn't be more transformative. But I'm also not convinced they will be.

pixl97 4y ago
If we get a 'general AI' any time soon, I do not see how it could not be transformative. Already LLMs seem really damned good at intent modeling and summarization. That alone is going to have huge ripples in society as we have systems that attempt to classify based on heuristics everywhere, and many of them break easily. It gets a little more worrisome when it comes human monitoring systems because now an AI system can take your audio/visual/textual data and easily (as compared to the past) figure out what your beliefs are. When we reach general intelligence, that is human level reasoning, the person that can buy the most processors and connect to the most data has a significant advantage over any individual without said computing power.