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> 100000x lower unit production volume than GPUs means higher unit costs Two points. Nvidia's RTX 3000 series (3060 Ti, 3080, and many other flavors) ships 6
by sliken 4y ago
> 100000x lower unit production volume than GPUs means higher unit costs
Two points. Nvidia's RTX 3000 series (3060 Ti, 3080, and many other flavors) ships 6 or more flavors per generation. The related silicon has names like the GA102, GA103, GA104, GA106, and GA107. So only 1/6th of the consumer market for Nvidia silicon can be amortized over any single design.
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Google making the TPUs by the million. I found a vague reference to 9 exaflops and single facilities (one of many) costing $4 billion to $8 billion.
So I wouldn't assume that the consumer GPU market/number of silicon designs is 100,000 times larger than the TPUv4 market.
> Slow iteration cycle
True. Then again generations make much less difference than they used to. Gone are the days where even after a multiple generations that average performance increases by 2x. Sure nvidia's 4000 series claims 2x ... on raytracing. But normal game performance seems to be more like 15%. Sure various trickery like DLSS helps, but similar tricks are increasing the performance of older cards as well. Similarly apple's a14 -> a15 -> a16 (or m1 -> m2 if you prefer) chips have had modest performance increases and mostly have increases in perf/watt.
> 4.5yrs of Moore's Law
It's dead Jim.
- pclmulqdq 4y agoI believe that Nvidia uses the same chip from A16 up to the A100, and maybe for some of the Quadro chips. That easily puts the unit count into the several millions. The picture in this article shows 8 racks with (according to the paper on arxiv) has 16 TPU sleds each, 4 TPUs per sled. that's only 512 chips. According to the paper, it is one of eight in a 4096-chip supercomputer. If you give them 10-100 of those around the world, you get 40,000-400,000 chips. That's enough for reasonable scale. Nvidia should still have 100x (or more) their scale.
- the-rc 4y agoThey are not all the same chips; some use different processes, for one. I assume that it would eat into any large volume efficiency claims. I am sure there are more A100s than TPUv4 chips out there, but I would hesitate to say the scale is over 100x.