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> Almost none of these predictions have come true There's only one prediction that really matters in my eyes: the prediction that Elon would win the October 20
by dragontamer 4y ago
> Almost none of these predictions have come true
There's only one prediction that really matters in my eyes: the prediction that Elon would win the October 2022 court case and somehow get out of his contractual agreement to buy Twitter.
Can the future be predicted? Ehh, probably not. But the thing that has held up time-and-time again is legal, contractual obligations.
1. Elon Musk is terrible at understanding contracts.
2. Because of #1, Elon Musk breaks contracts on a regular basis.
3. In some cases, Elon Musk gets sued, it takes months (or even a year+) for the courts to address these contracts, and Elon eventually gets his ass kicked in court.
#3 has the most uncertainty. But... Elon has been breaking contracts with such vigor this past year (including his attempts to "not buy Twitter", among others), that I'm willing to bet that he's going to make the same mistake again, and again, and again.
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Haraldur Thorliefsson and the FTC case are both similar events to the October 2022 court case in my eyes. They seem to have solid foundation of law. They seem to have been ignored by Elon Musk, and finally, there seems to be court action going on.
I don't know how long the court action will take, but I'm willing to bet against Elon Musk on this one.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- smotched 4y agoNone of those are/were predictions...
- dragontamer 4y agoWere you around here for the last year? That bots and mDAU numbers are so awful that Elon Musk would obviously win the court case? TWTR stock price was $35 or less (despite Elon Musk's court-ordered offer of $54 per share). Then, there was a prediction of "If forced, where would Elon Musk's money come from??". And I think everyone knows that Elon's #1 source of money is TSLA shares. Lo-and-behold, TSLA drops dramatically as Elon sells $10s of Billions to fund the Twitter deal. This was probably some of the easiest money you could have made last year in the stock market. Short TSLA in 2022 (since Elon needs a source of funding) and long TWTR (because Elon would lose the court case). ---------- Now we have other, court-based predictions going on in this blog post. I'm not sure if there's much to trade on (maybe short Tesla? If Musk has to tap into TSLA shares to pay for these issues??)