The leadership of China are happy to answer that question for you. You may want to reject those reasons, but I think it's dangerous to substitute your own reaso

The leadership of China are happy to answer that question for you. You may want to reject those reasons, but I think it's dangerous to substitute your own reasoning for theirs: you risk having the significant differences in your worldview causing massive blindspots about what "real analysis" would mean to them. People said the same stuff about whether or not they'd start to take more direct control of Hong Kong early. Similarly, it feels like the "Trump is just saying that for PR, he would stop doing and saying crazy stuff if he wins the election" 2016 discourse. Sometimes you should believe people when they say what they're gonna do. (See also: overturning Roe v Wade, a core idea of Republican discourse for decades.) Or "what does the US gain from invading Afghanistan and Iraq in real terms, other than just satisfying some loud calls for arbitrary blood?"