Violent situations are not logical negotiations. People react in fight or flight (both the attacker and the defender!). But yes, it is absolutely the most like

Violent situations are not logical negotiations. People react in fight or flight (both the attacker and the defender!). But yes, it is absolutely the most likely occurrence that an obviously wealthy exec, an older man, was an easy mark for a random mugging gone wrong at the wee hours than some crypto bro plotted an assassination. "Mugging gone wrong, someone got stabbed" is a very, very common situation. Also note that he lived to receive initial aid and perished on the way to the hospital - it's not like he was shot and stuffed in a car trunk.