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>As for the violent crime, I expect post-2019 data to be much worse than 2019, 2019 was before the whole "defund the police" movement. I'm not sure I follow. A

>As for the violent crime, I expect post-2019 data to be much worse than 2019, 2019 was before the whole "defund the police" movement. I'm not sure I follow. Are you saying that victims of violent crime are less likely to report it post-BLM/George Floyd? I know some people have been less likely to call certain things in, like someone having a mental health crisis, out of fear that police may escalate, but violent crime?

smsm42 4y ago
No, I'm saying there is likely significantly more violent crime in 2023 than there were in 2019, so basing on 2019 is no longer relevant. The reporting likely suffered too, at least for a relatively minor crime - you're less likely to report, say, a mugging if you know police is not going to do anything about it - but that's not the primary point. The primary point post-BLM the actual levels of crime rose significantly, so pre-BLM data is likely under-estimating the current level of crime significantly.
- cortesoft 4y ago
  You are assuming defunding the police leads to more violent crime... any evidence to back that up?
  - smsm42 4y ago
    Yes, plenty. Case in point: https://slaynews.com/news/san-francisco-throws-in-towel-asks-federal-government-for-help-cleaning-up-city-we-are-in-the-midst-of-an-unprecedented-police-staffing-shortage/ https://slaynews.com/news/san-francisco-throws-in-towel-asks... The same is observed pretty much everywhere where "defund the police" crowd rules the day.
    - cortesoft 4y ago
      This is an opinion piece... it has no data to back up crime increasing, other than to say people complained.
      - smsm42 4y ago
        Whatever you want to tell yourself to make yourself happy. I have no horse in this race anymore, if you want to try to suppress violent crime by "taxing the rich" and firing the policeman and distributing money among PhD-led NGOs which would experiment with newest theories on your city - be my guest. The results will speak for itself, and if you like what you see in SF (or similar major cities) now - well, enjoy it, while I enjoy what I think to be much better quality of life and no chance of getting randomly stabbed while walking around my home. I have pretty much zero motivation in convincing you - I showed you where I got my facts, all this is readily available, and with that I am done.
        komali2 4y ago
        I've been reading this entire thread and I'd like to point out that basically all sub threads have gone the way this conversation has. In short, someone will attack a progressive spectre, such as BLM, police abolitionism, rehabilitative justice, or the fact that economic inequality is strongly correlated with crime, they will be asked to show data supporting their position or shown data that directly contradicts it, and the op will then respond in anger with a lot more strawmans of progressive positions. Given that you don't have the data to support your position, and others do have data to support the position you clearly and vehemently oppose, I'm really curious why you still hold that position? Like, what are you feeling right now?
        sgustard 4y ago
        Let's conspire as a country to drive all the homeless, addicts, and mentally ill to a few concentrated urban areas. Keep them well away from our white wealthy enclaves (NIMBY!). Now let's preen about how those urban areas are suddenly crime-ridden hellholes, and we told you all along it was the fault of your liberal policies.
        smsm42 4y ago
        > they will be asked to show data supporting their position I did. > shown data that directly contradicts it It wasn't. > will then respond in anger with a lot more strawmans of progressive positions. That didn't happen. Defunding the police is exactly the position of the prog-woke crowd, and until the disastrous results started showing up, they didn't hide it - they campaigned on it. Once the inevitable happened, they started screaming "we didn't mean that" and pretending it's all strawmen. Yes you did. You meant exactly that, and you got what you wanted, and now people who trusted you are suffering the consequences. Some - the lethal ones. > Given that you don't have the data to support your position Except I do. > others do have data to support the position you clearly and vehemently oppose Except they don't. > I'm really curious why you still hold that position? Because I not only dislike myself being stabbed, but also others being stabbed? And when these policies are followed, people get stabbed. Also shot, mugged, robbed, carjacked, and so on. If you think ideology is worth it - enjoy it. I do not. > what are you feeling right now? I am feeling sad that more people have to suffer in service of idiotic ideology that clearly does not work, and I am feeling glad I am no longer one of these people.
    - ribosometronome 4y ago
      San Francisco never defunded the police.
      - smsm42 4y ago
        https://www.npr.org/sections/live-updates-protests-for-racial-justice/2020/07/31/897835937/san-francisco-proposes-to-shift-120-million-from-police-to-tackle-racial-dispari https://www.npr.org/sections/live-updates-protests-for-racia... Not sure how much of these cuts were achieved by the time they reversed the course, in 18 months, but that certainly was the plan, it was announced as such, and had full support of the police chief. Not that by 2020 SF wasn't drowning in feces anyway, so the defund itself certainly wasn't the cause - just another brick in the wall.
  - malaya_zemlya 4y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murray-Hill_riot https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murray-Hill_riot
    - cortesoft 4y ago
      I don't see how they situation is at all similar to a defund the police movement.
- ribosometronome 4y ago
  You don't have to speculate on that! San Francisco has a public crime dashboard for reported crime that generally runs just a few days behind real time. Violent crime is up a bit since pre-pandemic, yes, but still quite a ways from the late 90, and especially below the rise in violent crime in the mid 2000s.
- brewdad 4y ago
  Well we can have a discussion about Minneapolis then. No other large city actually defunded the police. A few other cities talked about it but ended up continuing to fund at pre-BLM rates or higher. The real problem is still accountability of the police. They quit doing their jobs and no one is doing a damn thing about it.
  - NeverFade 4y ago
    Even Minneapolis ended up reversing their "defund the police" effort: > Dealing the final blow to the local "defund" movement last year was a city council vote to essentially refund a cut they'd made the prior year. Mayor Jacob Frey is proposing another budget bump for the next two fiscal years. https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/how-city-once-called-murderapolis-became-center-of-defund-the-police-movement-now-grappling-with-violent-crime-spike/ https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/how-city-once-called-... As far as I'm aware, every single city that defunded its police to any extent - ended up with a major crime surge and then reversed itself. You can see in the article that Minneapolis was no exception to that rule.
xwdv 4y ago
Yes, if you get beat the fuck up, but are otherwise alive and uninjured, what’s the point of reporting the crime? Police aren’t going to find whoever did this to you. You will just write down some information on a police report and they’ll say some encouraging words and then nothing. Just go home.
- brewdad 4y ago
  So police aren’t going to do their job? And you’re ok with this? Why do we pay them so well?
  - xwdv 4y ago
    No, I’m not okay with it. I want them to do their job. Chase down every last mugger. Arrest every illegal tent squatter that has popped up. Arrest drug addicts and indecent exposers and shoplifters. SF police should be working around the clock, until the city is completely cleaned out. People thinking about doing any kind of crime should be complaining how difficult police are making life for them. People should be crying foul about how hard on crime the SF police have gotten. But they won’t do it. Hell, if they did all the above I wouldn’t mind paying them double.
    - okdood64 4y ago
      > SF police should be working around the clock, until the city is completely cleaned out. Agreed. They won't though. Sigh.

smsm42 4y ago

No, I'm saying there is likely significantly more violent crime in 2023 than there were in 2019, so basing on 2019 is no longer relevant. The reporting likely suffered too, at least for a relatively minor crime - you're less likely to report, say, a mugging if you know police is not going to do anything about it - but that's not the primary point. The primary point post-BLM the actual levels of crime rose significantly, so pre-BLM data is likely under-estimating the current level of crime significantly.

cortesoft 4y ago
You are assuming defunding the police leads to more violent crime... any evidence to back that up?
- smsm42 4y ago
  Yes, plenty. Case in point: https://slaynews.com/news/san-francisco-throws-in-towel-asks-federal-government-for-help-cleaning-up-city-we-are-in-the-midst-of-an-unprecedented-police-staffing-shortage/ https://slaynews.com/news/san-francisco-throws-in-towel-asks... The same is observed pretty much everywhere where "defund the police" crowd rules the day.
  - cortesoft 4y ago
    This is an opinion piece... it has no data to back up crime increasing, other than to say people complained.
    - smsm42 4y ago
      Whatever you want to tell yourself to make yourself happy. I have no horse in this race anymore, if you want to try to suppress violent crime by "taxing the rich" and firing the policeman and distributing money among PhD-led NGOs which would experiment with newest theories on your city - be my guest. The results will speak for itself, and if you like what you see in SF (or similar major cities) now - well, enjoy it, while I enjoy what I think to be much better quality of life and no chance of getting randomly stabbed while walking around my home. I have pretty much zero motivation in convincing you - I showed you where I got my facts, all this is readily available, and with that I am done.
      - komali2 4y ago
        I've been reading this entire thread and I'd like to point out that basically all sub threads have gone the way this conversation has. In short, someone will attack a progressive spectre, such as BLM, police abolitionism, rehabilitative justice, or the fact that economic inequality is strongly correlated with crime, they will be asked to show data supporting their position or shown data that directly contradicts it, and the op will then respond in anger with a lot more strawmans of progressive positions. Given that you don't have the data to support your position, and others do have data to support the position you clearly and vehemently oppose, I'm really curious why you still hold that position? Like, what are you feeling right now?
        sgustard 4y ago
        Let's conspire as a country to drive all the homeless, addicts, and mentally ill to a few concentrated urban areas. Keep them well away from our white wealthy enclaves (NIMBY!). Now let's preen about how those urban areas are suddenly crime-ridden hellholes, and we told you all along it was the fault of your liberal policies.
        smsm42 4y ago
        > they will be asked to show data supporting their position I did. > shown data that directly contradicts it It wasn't. > will then respond in anger with a lot more strawmans of progressive positions. That didn't happen. Defunding the police is exactly the position of the prog-woke crowd, and until the disastrous results started showing up, they didn't hide it - they campaigned on it. Once the inevitable happened, they started screaming "we didn't mean that" and pretending it's all strawmen. Yes you did. You meant exactly that, and you got what you wanted, and now people who trusted you are suffering the consequences. Some - the lethal ones. > Given that you don't have the data to support your position Except I do. > others do have data to support the position you clearly and vehemently oppose Except they don't. > I'm really curious why you still hold that position? Because I not only dislike myself being stabbed, but also others being stabbed? And when these policies are followed, people get stabbed. Also shot, mugged, robbed, carjacked, and so on. If you think ideology is worth it - enjoy it. I do not. > what are you feeling right now? I am feeling sad that more people have to suffer in service of idiotic ideology that clearly does not work, and I am feeling glad I am no longer one of these people.
  - ribosometronome 4y ago
    San Francisco never defunded the police.
    - smsm42 4y ago
      https://www.npr.org/sections/live-updates-protests-for-racial-justice/2020/07/31/897835937/san-francisco-proposes-to-shift-120-million-from-police-to-tackle-racial-dispari https://www.npr.org/sections/live-updates-protests-for-racia... Not sure how much of these cuts were achieved by the time they reversed the course, in 18 months, but that certainly was the plan, it was announced as such, and had full support of the police chief. Not that by 2020 SF wasn't drowning in feces anyway, so the defund itself certainly wasn't the cause - just another brick in the wall.
- malaya_zemlya 4y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murray-Hill_riot https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murray-Hill_riot
  - cortesoft 4y ago
    I don't see how they situation is at all similar to a defund the police movement.
ribosometronome 4y ago
You don't have to speculate on that! San Francisco has a public crime dashboard for reported crime that generally runs just a few days behind real time. Violent crime is up a bit since pre-pandemic, yes, but still quite a ways from the late 90, and especially below the rise in violent crime in the mid 2000s.
brewdad 4y ago
Well we can have a discussion about Minneapolis then. No other large city actually defunded the police. A few other cities talked about it but ended up continuing to fund at pre-BLM rates or higher. The real problem is still accountability of the police. They quit doing their jobs and no one is doing a damn thing about it.
- NeverFade 4y ago
  Even Minneapolis ended up reversing their "defund the police" effort: > Dealing the final blow to the local "defund" movement last year was a city council vote to essentially refund a cut they'd made the prior year. Mayor Jacob Frey is proposing another budget bump for the next two fiscal years. https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/how-city-once-called-murderapolis-became-center-of-defund-the-police-movement-now-grappling-with-violent-crime-spike/ https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/how-city-once-called-... As far as I'm aware, every single city that defunded its police to any extent - ended up with a major crime surge and then reversed itself. You can see in the article that Minneapolis was no exception to that rule.

xwdv 4y ago

Yes, if you get beat the fuck up, but are otherwise alive and uninjured, what’s the point of reporting the crime? Police aren’t going to find whoever did this to you. You will just write down some information on a police report and they’ll say some encouraging words and then nothing. Just go home.

brewdad 4y ago
So police aren’t going to do their job? And you’re ok with this? Why do we pay them so well?
- xwdv 4y ago
  No, I’m not okay with it. I want them to do their job. Chase down every last mugger. Arrest every illegal tent squatter that has popped up. Arrest drug addicts and indecent exposers and shoplifters. SF police should be working around the clock, until the city is completely cleaned out. People thinking about doing any kind of crime should be complaining how difficult police are making life for them. People should be crying foul about how hard on crime the SF police have gotten. But they won’t do it. Hell, if they did all the above I wouldn’t mind paying them double.
  - okdood64 4y ago
    > SF police should be working around the clock, until the city is completely cleaned out. Agreed. They won't though. Sigh.