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It's quite simple, actually. His main aim now is to survive. He has everything at stake, including his son. So he will try to brutally stifle any kind of dissen
by hdjjhhvvhga 4y ago
It's quite simple, actually. His main aim now is to survive. He has everything at stake, including his son. So he will try to brutally stifle any kind of dissent.
On the other hand there is Putin whose army occupies his land, practically forever. They will make sure Belarus stays under Kremlin's influence. But for some strange reason he managed to refuse sending his own soldiers to Ukraine, so Putin's grip over him seems not that tight one would assume. Maybe Putin is afraid whoever comes after Lukashenko might be less easy to control so he agreed to keep him in power.
- varjag 4y agoSending his soldiers in was no doubt in the original plan. Some units were staged at the border along the Russian troops but he found sense to pull the plug on it once he've seen Russian forward units being decimated.
- jacquesm 4y agoI think part of the reason is that these dictators are subconsciously quite sensitive to public opinion and yet another invasion may well have tipped the balance against both Lukashenko and Putin. Now they can pretend to be frenemies, but if Putin had invaded Belarus Lukashenko would have either had to react or he'd be deposed by the Russians anyway. It's a strange situation and it is very unstable. But for the duration of the war in Ukraine, ironically Lukashenko's position is now probably more solid than it was before.