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As a .by native I never needed to go through any definitive source. But you often encounter useful nuggets in e.g. ISW reports and general long reads on situati
by varjag 4y ago
As a .by native I never needed to go through any definitive source. But you often encounter useful nuggets in e.g. ISW reports and general long reads on situation with the Russian invasion. Naturally troubles in Belarus now pale to the savagery committed in Ukraine daily so there hasn't been much in terms of focused studies.
But it's not like Lukashenka runs some policy think tank anyway. He mostly wings it, often demonstrating an uncanny political sense for a self projected image of a simpleton. Still he certainly blew it big time in 2022. After participating in a breezy (now forgotten) invasion in Kazakhstan he went all in with Putin's next adventure. Now his ambitions of great commander appear to be back on ice and the focus is on survival. And while his own people remain his #1 enemy he is awake to the threat of complete Russian take over as well.
- 5e92cb50239222b 4y agoI don't think Putin ever bothered to ask for his opinion. From my neck of the woods Belarus seems to have been pretty much under foreign occupation since 2020. AFAIK the Russian military has had almost total control over your military bases and airfields even before the war started. We (KZ) had enough sense to stay out from day one, but probably only were allowed to do so because we're so far away and have no borders with Ukraine.
- varjag 4y agoIt's a popular opinion certainly that I've heard many times. Russian official support was essential in convincing local LE to commit to the government and squash the protests. But when you look at the ratio of Russian forces to Belarusian within the country at the moment it's hardly an occupation. The reason I'm uncomfortable with this narrative though is it denies Lukashenka's part in this. All Belarusians are aware of the sheer amount of glee, joy and pride in his addresses during the build up and the first day of the invasion. I am convinced he was a willing ally, seething to get even with the West and to show it to stubborn people home who's the great one.
- jacquesm 4y agoWhat really got me is that he seems to genuinely believe that the protests are driven from the West rather than that the local populace is fed up with him and wants him gone. It is as if he can't believe the evidence right in front of him. Belarus could have been economically roughly where Poland or Lithuania are today. Such a pity.
- varjag 4y agoYep, no doubt he somehow believes the West "stole" "his" people. Poisoned the sheep so to say, who now have to be mercilessly culled. And the country certainly could have been entirely another place. Yet he's ultimately our people's creation, who voted him in democratically 29 years ago on an authoritarian leaning, populist platform. Now we're paying for the ultimate sin of not giving a fuck.
- jacquesm 4y agoMakes you wonder how Hungarians will look at their lives two decades from now.
- boeingUH60 4y ago> It is as if he can't believe the evidence right in front of him. This is a strict requirement to become a dictator/authoritarian. It's a job only for the delusional and shameless.