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Just to note, same happens in Belarus. This is one of the reason we can't travel there to see our grand parents - risk of being put in to prison and kids taken

Just to note, same happens in Belarus. This is one of the reason we can't travel there to see our grand parents - risk of being put in to prison and kids taken away is just to high to accept.

cainxinth 4y ago
Belarus is a Russian puppet-state under Lukashenko.
- varjag 4y ago
  The authoritarianism in Belarus is entirely domestic in origin and predates the modern Russian one.
  - jacquesm 4y ago
    That's true but it still is a Russian puppet state at present.
    - varjag 4y ago
      It's fluid. In the way late period fascist Italy could be called puppet state of Nazi Germany perhaps. But Belarusian dictator has his own distinct agenda and pursues it despite very limited choices which "puppet state" kinda glosses over.
      - tomjakubowski 4y ago
        Somewhere I could read more about Lukashenko's agenda?
        varjag 4y ago
        As a .by native I never needed to go through any definitive source. But you often encounter useful nuggets in e.g. ISW reports and general long reads on situation with the Russian invasion. Naturally troubles in Belarus now pale to the savagery committed in Ukraine daily so there hasn't been much in terms of focused studies. But it's not like Lukashenka runs some policy think tank anyway. He mostly wings it, often demonstrating an uncanny political sense for a self projected image of a simpleton. Still he certainly blew it big time in 2022. After participating in a breezy (now forgotten) invasion in Kazakhstan he went all in with Putin's next adventure. Now his ambitions of great commander appear to be back on ice and the focus is on survival. And while his own people remain his #1 enemy he is awake to the threat of complete Russian take over as well.
        5e92cb50239222b 4y ago
        I don't think Putin ever bothered to ask for his opinion. From my neck of the woods Belarus seems to have been pretty much under foreign occupation since 2020. AFAIK the Russian military has had almost total control over your military bases and airfields even before the war started. We (KZ) had enough sense to stay out from day one, but probably only were allowed to do so because we're so far away and have no borders with Ukraine.
        varjag 4y ago
        It's a popular opinion certainly that I've heard many times. Russian official support was essential in convincing local LE to commit to the government and squash the protests. But when you look at the ratio of Russian forces to Belarusian within the country at the moment it's hardly an occupation. The reason I'm uncomfortable with this narrative though is it denies Lukashenka's part in this. All Belarusians are aware of the sheer amount of glee, joy and pride in his addresses during the build up and the first day of the invasion. I am convinced he was a willing ally, seething to get even with the West and to show it to stubborn people home who's the great one.
        jacquesm 4y ago
        What really got me is that he seems to genuinely believe that the protests are driven from the West rather than that the local populace is fed up with him and wants him gone. It is as if he can't believe the evidence right in front of him. Belarus could have been economically roughly where Poland or Lithuania are today. Such a pity.
        varjag 4y ago
        Yep, no doubt he somehow believes the West "stole" "his" people. Poisoned the sheep so to say, who now have to be mercilessly culled. And the country certainly could have been entirely another place. Yet he's ultimately our people's creation, who voted him in democratically 29 years ago on an authoritarian leaning, populist platform. Now we're paying for the ultimate sin of not giving a fuck.
        finfrastrcuture 4y ago
        Less of his full agenda, but here's an article I felt was helpful on the current state of Belarus: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/30/magazine/belarus-mural.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/30/magazine/belarus-mural.ht...
        hdjjhhvvhga 4y ago
        It's quite simple, actually. His main aim now is to survive. He has everything at stake, including his son. So he will try to brutally stifle any kind of dissent. On the other hand there is Putin whose army occupies his land, practically forever. They will make sure Belarus stays under Kremlin's influence. But for some strange reason he managed to refuse sending his own soldiers to Ukraine, so Putin's grip over him seems not that tight one would assume. Maybe Putin is afraid whoever comes after Lukashenko might be less easy to control so he agreed to keep him in power.
        varjag 4y ago
        Sending his soldiers in was no doubt in the original plan. Some units were staged at the border along the Russian troops but he found sense to pull the plug on it once he've seen Russian forward units being decimated.
        jacquesm 4y ago
        I think part of the reason is that these dictators are subconsciously quite sensitive to public opinion and yet another invasion may well have tipped the balance against both Lukashenko and Putin. Now they can pretend to be frenemies, but if Putin had invaded Belarus Lukashenko would have either had to react or he'd be deposed by the Russians anyway. It's a strange situation and it is very unstable. But for the duration of the war in Ukraine, ironically Lukashenko's position is now probably more solid than it was before.
        tim333 4y ago
        Kamil Galeev had quite an interesting take on it all. Eg. "after being elected he usurped power and built a dictatorship, aiming to create something like a hereditary quasi monarchy." https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1518240030967406593.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1518240030967406593.html
  - brnt 4y ago
    Belarus and Russia entering into the Unity State sounds like a transfer of much of Belarus' decision making to Moscow.
    - varjag 4y ago
      The Union State was founded in 1997 and remained a joke ever since.
      - brnt 4y ago
        Just before the war started, they signed 28 programs, which, at least on paper, remove most of Luka's room to maneuver: https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-lukashenka-union-state/31546225.html https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-lukashenka-union-state/3154622...
        varjag 4y ago
        Add that to other scores of identical programs they were signing every few years. Agreements make sense only between countries with the rule of law.
spaceheater 4y ago
[flagged]
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > the US what happens when a kid draws that he wants to shoot other kids We let them buy guns. In all seriousness, you are drawing equivalence between supporting a state enemy and credibly threatening violence. I don’t think you’re a troll. But maybe check your reflexive desire to be contrarian when it extends to criticising police investigating people who want to blow up schools.

Just to note, same happens in Belarus. This is one of the reason we can't travel there to see our grand parents - risk of being put in to prison and kids taken away is just to high to accept.

cainxinth 4y ago

Belarus is a Russian puppet-state under Lukashenko.

varjag 4y ago
The authoritarianism in Belarus is entirely domestic in origin and predates the modern Russian one.
- jacquesm 4y ago
  That's true but it still is a Russian puppet state at present.
  - varjag 4y ago
    It's fluid. In the way late period fascist Italy could be called puppet state of Nazi Germany perhaps. But Belarusian dictator has his own distinct agenda and pursues it despite very limited choices which "puppet state" kinda glosses over.
    - tomjakubowski 4y ago
      Somewhere I could read more about Lukashenko's agenda?
      - varjag 4y ago
        As a .by native I never needed to go through any definitive source. But you often encounter useful nuggets in e.g. ISW reports and general long reads on situation with the Russian invasion. Naturally troubles in Belarus now pale to the savagery committed in Ukraine daily so there hasn't been much in terms of focused studies. But it's not like Lukashenka runs some policy think tank anyway. He mostly wings it, often demonstrating an uncanny political sense for a self projected image of a simpleton. Still he certainly blew it big time in 2022. After participating in a breezy (now forgotten) invasion in Kazakhstan he went all in with Putin's next adventure. Now his ambitions of great commander appear to be back on ice and the focus is on survival. And while his own people remain his #1 enemy he is awake to the threat of complete Russian take over as well.
        5e92cb50239222b 4y ago
        I don't think Putin ever bothered to ask for his opinion. From my neck of the woods Belarus seems to have been pretty much under foreign occupation since 2020. AFAIK the Russian military has had almost total control over your military bases and airfields even before the war started. We (KZ) had enough sense to stay out from day one, but probably only were allowed to do so because we're so far away and have no borders with Ukraine.
        varjag 4y ago
        It's a popular opinion certainly that I've heard many times. Russian official support was essential in convincing local LE to commit to the government and squash the protests. But when you look at the ratio of Russian forces to Belarusian within the country at the moment it's hardly an occupation. The reason I'm uncomfortable with this narrative though is it denies Lukashenka's part in this. All Belarusians are aware of the sheer amount of glee, joy and pride in his addresses during the build up and the first day of the invasion. I am convinced he was a willing ally, seething to get even with the West and to show it to stubborn people home who's the great one.
        jacquesm 4y ago
        What really got me is that he seems to genuinely believe that the protests are driven from the West rather than that the local populace is fed up with him and wants him gone. It is as if he can't believe the evidence right in front of him. Belarus could have been economically roughly where Poland or Lithuania are today. Such a pity.
        varjag 4y ago
        Yep, no doubt he somehow believes the West "stole" "his" people. Poisoned the sheep so to say, who now have to be mercilessly culled. And the country certainly could have been entirely another place. Yet he's ultimately our people's creation, who voted him in democratically 29 years ago on an authoritarian leaning, populist platform. Now we're paying for the ultimate sin of not giving a fuck.
      - finfrastrcuture 4y ago
        Less of his full agenda, but here's an article I felt was helpful on the current state of Belarus: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/30/magazine/belarus-mural.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/30/magazine/belarus-mural.ht...
      - hdjjhhvvhga 4y ago
        It's quite simple, actually. His main aim now is to survive. He has everything at stake, including his son. So he will try to brutally stifle any kind of dissent. On the other hand there is Putin whose army occupies his land, practically forever. They will make sure Belarus stays under Kremlin's influence. But for some strange reason he managed to refuse sending his own soldiers to Ukraine, so Putin's grip over him seems not that tight one would assume. Maybe Putin is afraid whoever comes after Lukashenko might be less easy to control so he agreed to keep him in power.
        varjag 4y ago
        Sending his soldiers in was no doubt in the original plan. Some units were staged at the border along the Russian troops but he found sense to pull the plug on it once he've seen Russian forward units being decimated.
        jacquesm 4y ago
        I think part of the reason is that these dictators are subconsciously quite sensitive to public opinion and yet another invasion may well have tipped the balance against both Lukashenko and Putin. Now they can pretend to be frenemies, but if Putin had invaded Belarus Lukashenko would have either had to react or he'd be deposed by the Russians anyway. It's a strange situation and it is very unstable. But for the duration of the war in Ukraine, ironically Lukashenko's position is now probably more solid than it was before.
      - tim333 4y ago
        Kamil Galeev had quite an interesting take on it all. Eg. "after being elected he usurped power and built a dictatorship, aiming to create something like a hereditary quasi monarchy." https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1518240030967406593.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1518240030967406593.html
- brnt 4y ago
  Belarus and Russia entering into the Unity State sounds like a transfer of much of Belarus' decision making to Moscow.
  - varjag 4y ago
    The Union State was founded in 1997 and remained a joke ever since.
    - brnt 4y ago
      Just before the war started, they signed 28 programs, which, at least on paper, remove most of Luka's room to maneuver: https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-lukashenka-union-state/31546225.html https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-lukashenka-union-state/3154622...
      - varjag 4y ago
        Add that to other scores of identical programs they were signing every few years. Agreements make sense only between countries with the rule of law.

spaceheater 4y ago

[flagged]

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> the US what happens when a kid draws that he wants to shoot other kids We let them buy guns. In all seriousness, you are drawing equivalence between supporting a state enemy and credibly threatening violence. I don’t think you’re a troll. But maybe check your reflexive desire to be contrarian when it extends to criticising police investigating people who want to blow up schools.