5 ms·

Not to diminish this tragedy but I believe murders are close to an all-time low in the city.

zamnos 4y ago
The sfgate article mentions that there were 10 murders by this point last year, compared to 12 this year. https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/mill-valley-man-killed-sf-stabbing-17878809.php https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/mill-valley-man-kille...
tlogan 4y ago
Funny stat. Majority of murders happen in family. The recent FBI stat says that family members were responsible for 43% of them. Gangs are responsible for about 30%. Now since large number of families moved out from SF, and there are more no big local gangs (since there are no families) you have about 40% more random homicides. And these random ones are the worse and the most scary ones.
- dsfyu404ed 4y ago
  When crime stats say "gangs" they're not just talking about a street gang with a name, list of members, defined territory and stuff like that. They're also talking about people who engage in business that is not state sanctioned and therefore have to settle disputes with their own violence instead of getting a court to threaten state violence on their behalf. One part time drug dealer rounding up a couple buddies and putting a bullet in a guy who ripped him off will show up as and makes up a huge chunk of what's considered "gang violence" in these stats. When comparing cities it's useful to differentiate between random crime and crime where the parties to know each other.
  - tlogan 4y ago
    The scary part of SF homicides now that you can be walking around and some crazy guy just shoots you or stab you without any reason whatsoever. They are not professional criminals: they are just so drugged up or whatever.
- throwaway4aday 4y ago
  I think that should be rephrased, I see what you mean but it sounds weird to call 43% a majority since the other 57% of murders are not family related.
- knorker 4y ago
  That's a funny majority. Like how most rapes (about 33%) are committed by someone you know.
coldtea 4y ago
If by "all-time low" you mean "the highest of the last 10 years" (we need to go to 2012 to find a higher value, with 2007/2008 being the peak of the last 20 years). And also if we're willing to accept this pretty high bar... For comparison the UK, not exactly the safest country in Europe, had 12x the homicides for 80x the population, which puts SF at 6 times more homicides per population.
- piva00 4y ago
  For another comparison that actually shocked me (as I'm originally from there): São Paulo, Brazil, had a lower murder rate in 2022 than SF.
  - coldtea 4y ago
    Don't look up Saint Louis' rate then :(
avsteele 4y ago
This is wrong. The 56-year low was 2019. 2021,2022 up about >30% from that. Oakland and Vallejo increases even more horrible. https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/crime-homicides-oakland-17739710.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/crime-homicides-... https://sfist.com/2023/01/03/sf-sees-exact-same-number-of-homicides-in-2022-as-previous-year-while-burglaries-are-down/ https://sfist.com/2023/01/03/sf-sees-exact-same-number-of-ho...
- nopenotthat 4y ago
  If by >30% you mean… 3, sure. Because that’s the difference between 2019s all time low year at this point… and so far in 2023. Oh and ‘21 & ‘22 by now? Difference of 2. Absolute numbers don’t sound as scary as percentages tho do they? Might ruin your narrative.
  - avsteele 4y ago
    In the SF Chron article it says the #'s for San Francisco are: 2019 = 41 2020 = 48 2021 = 56 2022 = 56 If you can't discuss the facts in a civil manner I am not going to discuss the issue with you any further.
    - nopenotthat 4y ago
      [dead]
peoplefromibiza 4y ago
well that says a lot, San Francisco had in 3 months the same number of homicides that Rome has in one year, while also being 3 times larger. SF average homicide rate: 7.1/100k [1] Rome average homicide rate: 0.5/100k [2] [1] https://abc7news.com/feature/san-francisco-bay-area-safety-tracker-crime-stats-how-safe-is-my-neighborhood-zip-code-statistics/12442207/ https://abc7news.com/feature/san-francisco-bay-area-safety-t... [2] (in Italian) https://www.agi.it/fact-checking/omicidio_sacchi_sicurezza_roma-6434767/news/2019-10-26/ https://www.agi.it/fact-checking/omicidio_sacchi_sicurezza_r...
cylinder 4y ago
How does it feel to post outright incorrect information? Do you delete now or leave it up?

The sfgate article mentions that there were 10 murders by this point last year, compared to 12 this year. https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/mill-valley-man-killed-sf-stabbing-17878809.php https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/mill-valley-man-kille...

tlogan 4y ago

Funny stat. Majority of murders happen in family. The recent FBI stat says that family members were responsible for 43% of them. Gangs are responsible for about 30%. Now since large number of families moved out from SF, and there are more no big local gangs (since there are no families) you have about 40% more random homicides. And these random ones are the worse and the most scary ones.

dsfyu404ed 4y ago
When crime stats say "gangs" they're not just talking about a street gang with a name, list of members, defined territory and stuff like that. They're also talking about people who engage in business that is not state sanctioned and therefore have to settle disputes with their own violence instead of getting a court to threaten state violence on their behalf. One part time drug dealer rounding up a couple buddies and putting a bullet in a guy who ripped him off will show up as and makes up a huge chunk of what's considered "gang violence" in these stats. When comparing cities it's useful to differentiate between random crime and crime where the parties to know each other.
- tlogan 4y ago
  The scary part of SF homicides now that you can be walking around and some crazy guy just shoots you or stab you without any reason whatsoever. They are not professional criminals: they are just so drugged up or whatever.
throwaway4aday 4y ago
I think that should be rephrased, I see what you mean but it sounds weird to call 43% a majority since the other 57% of murders are not family related.
knorker 4y ago
That's a funny majority. Like how most rapes (about 33%) are committed by someone you know.

coldtea 4y ago

If by "all-time low" you mean "the highest of the last 10 years" (we need to go to 2012 to find a higher value, with 2007/2008 being the peak of the last 20 years). And also if we're willing to accept this pretty high bar... For comparison the UK, not exactly the safest country in Europe, had 12x the homicides for 80x the population, which puts SF at 6 times more homicides per population.

piva00 4y ago
For another comparison that actually shocked me (as I'm originally from there): São Paulo, Brazil, had a lower murder rate in 2022 than SF.
- coldtea 4y ago
  Don't look up Saint Louis' rate then :(

avsteele 4y ago

This is wrong. The 56-year low was 2019. 2021,2022 up about >30% from that. Oakland and Vallejo increases even more horrible. https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/crime-homicides-oakland-17739710.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/crime-homicides-... https://sfist.com/2023/01/03/sf-sees-exact-same-number-of-homicides-in-2022-as-previous-year-while-burglaries-are-down/ https://sfist.com/2023/01/03/sf-sees-exact-same-number-of-ho...

nopenotthat 4y ago
If by >30% you mean… 3, sure. Because that’s the difference between 2019s all time low year at this point… and so far in 2023. Oh and ‘21 & ‘22 by now? Difference of 2. Absolute numbers don’t sound as scary as percentages tho do they? Might ruin your narrative.
- avsteele 4y ago
  In the SF Chron article it says the #'s for San Francisco are: 2019 = 41 2020 = 48 2021 = 56 2022 = 56 If you can't discuss the facts in a civil manner I am not going to discuss the issue with you any further.
  - nopenotthat 4y ago
    [dead]

peoplefromibiza 4y ago

well that says a lot, San Francisco had in 3 months the same number of homicides that Rome has in one year, while also being 3 times larger. SF average homicide rate: 7.1/100k [1] Rome average homicide rate: 0.5/100k [2] [1] https://abc7news.com/feature/san-francisco-bay-area-safety-tracker-crime-stats-how-safe-is-my-neighborhood-zip-code-statistics/12442207/ https://abc7news.com/feature/san-francisco-bay-area-safety-t... [2] (in Italian) https://www.agi.it/fact-checking/omicidio_sacchi_sicurezza_roma-6434767/news/2019-10-26/ https://www.agi.it/fact-checking/omicidio_sacchi_sicurezza_r...

cylinder 4y ago

How does it feel to post outright incorrect information? Do you delete now or leave it up?