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Probabilities can be tricky. Many people here in the comments point out how unlikely it is that Jeanne Calment would have been able to pull off such an identit
by janmo 4y ago
Probabilities can be tricky.
Many people here in the comments point out how unlikely it is that Jeanne Calment would have been able to pull off such an identity fraud. Let's say you believe there is a 0.00001% chance she could have done it.
Now compare that to, the probability of becoming the world oldest person to have ever lived, it is 1 in billions. Add to this that she outlive the second oldest person by 3 years. The probability is now somewhere in the 1 to 100 billions.
Then there is actually a 99.99999..% chance that Jeanne Calment was indeed a fraud.
The only way to prove her record beyond the reasonable doubt would be to do an extensive DNA testing with her deceased and living relatives as such tests have a one in billions accuracy as well, but this hasn't been done.
Here is an interesting paper on the subject: https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/rej.2019.2227 https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/rej.2019.2227