I'd argue that "low to midrange smartphone" and "free OS smartphone" are two separate markets outside the US and Europe. Inside the US where carrier phones are

I'd argue that "low to midrange smartphone" and "free OS smartphone" are two separate markets outside the US and Europe. Inside the US where carrier phones are dumbphones, iPhones, Google-branded official-partner Android phones, or outliers, you're totally right - Windows Phone has a great shot at taking over the low-end to mid-range cheap-but-still-branded Android phones from LG, Samsung, and Motorola. Overseas, where "free OS smartphone" is a market niche occupied by 500 Chinese things people in the US have never heard of with no Google branding whatsoever (and no or hacked Android Market access), Windows Phone doesn't stand a chance, because it can't be downloaded and hacked together.