Of the 25 who made it to 116, 10 made it to 117. Of the 10 who made it to 117, 4 made it to 118 and 3 of those made out to 119. So the data are roughly consis

Of the 25 who made it to 116, 10 made it to 117. Of the 10 who made it to 117, 4 made it to 118 and 3 of those made out to 119. So the data are roughly consistent with a 40% chance of living another year at the age. That compounds to a 6% chance of living 3 more years. Two of the 119-year-olds dying within a year and one of them living 3 years is completely consistent with this model.