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I expect jobs to be lost, but new jobs to be created. For example, prompt engineers. There is already a job board for prompt engineers (https://news.ycombinator

I expect jobs to be lost, but new jobs to be created. For example, prompt engineers. There is already a job board for prompt engineers (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35436168 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35436168). I've been told they can make around $300k. I wouldn't be surprised to see the quant developers among the hardest hit by AI automation, maybe 10 quants replaced by one high-skill quant who can write the necessary prompts.

rnk 4y ago
Yeah, but how many people who write professionally will have their career prospects significantly reduced. Many fewer writers for press releases, real estate, general PR to reporter stuff. Just like there aren't many travel agents. That will be millions lost.
BaseballPhysics 4y ago
Eh we've heard that song before but it rarely turns out to be true. Rust belt cities didn't transform with new kinds of jobs and industries. They just crumbled and fell apart. Absent coordinated action by government to reorient economies as these new technologies take over, I fully expect wealth inequality to only get worse and for more and more white collar folks to be left behind. That's just wealth concentrating capitalism in action, which is inevitable when left to its own devices.
- Pet_Ant 4y ago
  They are saying new jobs will show up. Not that they will be available for those displaced or even in America. Just that jobs will show up. "Jobs" is often callous or disingenuous because when they say it, they know it's not how people generally use it.
  - kranke155 4y ago
    This is a common fiction trope that’s never been demonstrated in reality as far as I know. Everyone uses the bank tellers example and ignores multiple reports showing the leading cause of de industrialisation in the US was automation, followed by “free trade”. It’s all nonsense unless you show evidence, and the evidence points to the contrary. What we have is a move of society towards “service” jobs, but service jobs exist in two different spheres - high wage (IT) and low wage (Starbucks). Having lived in the UK under a so called post industrial society, de industrialisation did exactly what people like Vaclav Smil say it does - it creates a society with no middle class.
- rcarr 4y ago
  > Rust belt cities didn't transform with new kinds of jobs and industries. They just crumbled and fell apart. The interesting part is that the artistic jobs are mainly in the tier 1 cities e.g New York, LA, London etc. I'm sure there's historical precedent for tier 1 cities having their industries undermined but it'll be interesting to see what happens considering these areas tend to suck up the most government spending (or London does at least in the UK). Personally, I think the current generation of kids have got their hearts set on being content creators and they're going to be in for a rough ride. The next generation are probably going to grow up amidst the devastation and turn to high demand, high skill blue collar jobs in droves e.g construction, plumbing, electricians, engineers, nursing etc and with a bit of luck we might actually end up fixing some of the gargantuan problems we've got as a society such as the housing crisis. Kids with construction skills probably aren't going to be daunted buying dilapidated houses and making them liveable again or developing new ones.
- MattPalmer1086 4y ago
  It's probably true in the long term, but not in any kind of time frame that matters to those displaced.
shortrounddev 4y ago
If I was faced with the prospect of losing my job as a software engineer and instead becoming a prompt "engineer", I would simply opt to drop out of the labor market entirely, or at least out of tech. At that point, there are no more interesting problems worth spending your time on. Just become a yak farmer or something and leave
- kranke155 4y ago
  This is what I was told as an artist here when Stable Diffusion showed up. Same reaction, to the incredulity of the HN crowd. “Why would you quit” etc
  - yunwal 4y ago
    As an artist, are you not interested in other types of art besides photography and digital art?
    - kranke155 4y ago
      Writing. I hope that it will be the last thing we automate. As smart as we can make an LLM, can we get it to write original material as good as Ted Chiang? Feels like this would be an AGI-level problem. What I'm definitely not interested in is telling a computer to make images for me. Like I said at the time I trained to be a monk transcribing books. I'm not interested in becoming a printing press operator.
- nyokodo 4y ago
  > I would simply opt to drop out of the labor market entirely, or at least out of tech. This is the problem for automation at the limit. Unless we generate an immensely powerful AI that sustains itself entirely then AI will destroy the economy and therefore itself.
karmakurtisaani 4y ago
Why quant devs specifically? Wouldn't that apply to any devs tho?

rnk 4y ago

Yeah, but how many people who write professionally will have their career prospects significantly reduced. Many fewer writers for press releases, real estate, general PR to reporter stuff. Just like there aren't many travel agents. That will be millions lost.

BaseballPhysics 4y ago

Eh we've heard that song before but it rarely turns out to be true. Rust belt cities didn't transform with new kinds of jobs and industries. They just crumbled and fell apart. Absent coordinated action by government to reorient economies as these new technologies take over, I fully expect wealth inequality to only get worse and for more and more white collar folks to be left behind. That's just wealth concentrating capitalism in action, which is inevitable when left to its own devices.

Pet_Ant 4y ago
They are saying new jobs will show up. Not that they will be available for those displaced or even in America. Just that jobs will show up. "Jobs" is often callous or disingenuous because when they say it, they know it's not how people generally use it.
- kranke155 4y ago
  This is a common fiction trope that’s never been demonstrated in reality as far as I know. Everyone uses the bank tellers example and ignores multiple reports showing the leading cause of de industrialisation in the US was automation, followed by “free trade”. It’s all nonsense unless you show evidence, and the evidence points to the contrary. What we have is a move of society towards “service” jobs, but service jobs exist in two different spheres - high wage (IT) and low wage (Starbucks). Having lived in the UK under a so called post industrial society, de industrialisation did exactly what people like Vaclav Smil say it does - it creates a society with no middle class.
rcarr 4y ago
> Rust belt cities didn't transform with new kinds of jobs and industries. They just crumbled and fell apart. The interesting part is that the artistic jobs are mainly in the tier 1 cities e.g New York, LA, London etc. I'm sure there's historical precedent for tier 1 cities having their industries undermined but it'll be interesting to see what happens considering these areas tend to suck up the most government spending (or London does at least in the UK). Personally, I think the current generation of kids have got their hearts set on being content creators and they're going to be in for a rough ride. The next generation are probably going to grow up amidst the devastation and turn to high demand, high skill blue collar jobs in droves e.g construction, plumbing, electricians, engineers, nursing etc and with a bit of luck we might actually end up fixing some of the gargantuan problems we've got as a society such as the housing crisis. Kids with construction skills probably aren't going to be daunted buying dilapidated houses and making them liveable again or developing new ones.
MattPalmer1086 4y ago
It's probably true in the long term, but not in any kind of time frame that matters to those displaced.

shortrounddev 4y ago

If I was faced with the prospect of losing my job as a software engineer and instead becoming a prompt "engineer", I would simply opt to drop out of the labor market entirely, or at least out of tech. At that point, there are no more interesting problems worth spending your time on. Just become a yak farmer or something and leave

kranke155 4y ago
This is what I was told as an artist here when Stable Diffusion showed up. Same reaction, to the incredulity of the HN crowd. “Why would you quit” etc
- yunwal 4y ago
  As an artist, are you not interested in other types of art besides photography and digital art?
  - kranke155 4y ago
    Writing. I hope that it will be the last thing we automate. As smart as we can make an LLM, can we get it to write original material as good as Ted Chiang? Feels like this would be an AGI-level problem. What I'm definitely not interested in is telling a computer to make images for me. Like I said at the time I trained to be a monk transcribing books. I'm not interested in becoming a printing press operator.
nyokodo 4y ago
> I would simply opt to drop out of the labor market entirely, or at least out of tech. This is the problem for automation at the limit. Unless we generate an immensely powerful AI that sustains itself entirely then AI will destroy the economy and therefore itself.

karmakurtisaani 4y ago

Why quant devs specifically? Wouldn't that apply to any devs tho?